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When you compare line movements from week to week in the NFL, there is no bigger difference than what you seen in the first two Sundays of the season.
A lot of those changes that you see for Week 1 are due to the sharps pouncing on lines that they believed were either too low or too high. Plus, gamblers have a good two months to make their decision on each game. That’s why you’ll see a line switch around like the Panthers going from being one-point home favorites to one-point pups.
Week 2 doesn’t have the benefit of that kind of downtime for bettors to make a line move. If anything, you’re going to see very few big favorites this weekend. Perfect example for us is that 10 of the 16 games have favorites of no more than 3 ½-points. That’s practically a default number for the sportsbooks to post on the “chalk.”
One line that has surprised me is New England heading to East Rutherford to square up against the Jets. The Patriots opened up as five-point road favorites on Tuesday. Now they are favored by just 3 ½-points.
Randy Scott, sportsbook manager for betED, isn’t sold on the hype for Rex Ryan’s club. “Touts from everywhere are making the Jets one of their upsets of the week. We may not necessarily agree with that, but the public seems to.”
“It seems the public is sold on the Jets after that stellar defensive performance last week in Houston. Home field advantage is also playing a big part in the odds.” Scott concludes, “If anything, the line move is an attempt to head off the Jets action and not necessarily a refection of the true odds. We are using Pats -3.5 (-105).”
VegasInsider.com’s expert handicapper Bryan Leonard has no problem with the line. “That line was listed at New England -6 1/2 until their questionable performance on Monday. The correct line is probably anywhere from 2 to 4, so I don't think this line is out of whack.”
So is there any validity to the public pushing the line down? “Not sure I understand the statement about the public affecting the line. The public doesn't bet until gameday and this move seems geared towards how each team fared in Week 1,” Leonard adds. Randy Scott gives you the betting shop’s point of view, “The public doesn't really weigh in as far as the opening line goes, but they are considered when a team is heavily popular from the public. We'll react with a line change towards that type of lop-sided action.”
Something else to keep an eye on this weekend is our two double-digit favorites. The Vikes are 10-point road faves against Detroit, while Washington is laying 10-point at home to the Rams. Is there any reason to think either of those lines will get lower before kickoff?
“I don't see those numbers shrinking below 10. Also close to double-digit number is the Green Bay line is sitting at -9.5 (even), I don't think that line should get up to -10, if anything that line should drop,” says betED’s Scott.
Scott did mention one game for us to keep an eye on. “I would say Atlanta could be a bigger favorite, maybe -9 but the market has actually dropped that line from -6.5 to -6 (we are currently at -6) so I could be way off on that one.”
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com