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Sunday’s slate of NFL games comes to a close in the desert with the Cardinals playing host to Indianapolis in a battle of the league’s more explosive offenses on NBC’s Sunday Night Football.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants initially opened this game up last Sunday as a pick ‘em with the total coming in at 49 ½. The Colts moved out to be 1 ½-point road favorites with the same total on Monday afternoon. As of Thursday afternoon, Bodog has installed Arizona (1-1 straight up, 1-1 against the spread) as a 2 ½-point home “chalk” with a total of 48. You can back Indy to win outright for a plus-125 return (risk $100 to win $125) at most betting shops.
Indianapolis (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) was able to stay perfect in this early season thanks to a 27-23 victory over the Dolphins as a three-point road favorite. Peyton Manning had a fantastic performance, completing 14 of 23 passes for 303 yards and a pair of touchdown.
What makes Manning’s numbers even more impressive is the amount of time it took him to accumulate them. Indy set an NFL record for smallest time of possession for a winning team. The Colts held the ball for just 14 minutes, 35 seconds.
Dallas Clark was the Colts’ top receiving threat with seven catches for 183 yards and a score. Clark picked up 80 of those yards and his lone touchdown on the very first offensive play of the game.
When you have an offense on the field for such a small amount of time, you’ll have a defense that is dog tired. Indianapolis’ defense succumbed to the Dolphins’ wildcat attack in giving up 239 yards on the ground.
So will the Colts’ stopping unit going to be in play for as long this week against Arizona? VegasInsider.com’s expert handicapper Marc Lawrence doesn’t think so. “Can't see the Colts defense on the field this Sunday for anywhere near the time they spent Monday night in Miami. Arizona's rush offense was the worst in the NFC last season and the Colts' defensive coordinators are sure to make adjustments this week.”
Lawrence is spot on with his assessment of the Cards’ running game as they ranked 32nd in the league last year with 73.6 rushing yards per game. And Arizona is averaging just 79.0 YPG in 2009.
Arizona did have a good output from its two-headed running back tandem of Tim Hightower and Beanie Wells. The duo ran for 116 yards with Hightower picking up a touchdown in the Cardinals’ 31-17 win over Jacksonville as three-point road underdogs.
While the Cardinals had a nice outing on the ground, they make their bones through the air with Kurt Warner under center. America’s favorite grocery bagger set a new record for highest completion percentage for a single game (at least 20 attempts) versus the Jaguars, connecting on 24 of his 26 attempts for 243 yards and two touchdowns. A great bounce back from the two-interception performance against San Francisco to open the season.
If there was one thing you could look for Arizona to improve upon is moving the chains. They had 22 first downs last week in Jacksonville, but only converted two of its nine third-downs. Numbers like that help you understand why they are next to last in third-down conversions at 26 percent.
Defensively, the Cards have improved over last year’s unit that helped them get to the Super Bowl. In 2008, they allowed 331.5 yards per game. Arizona has given up just 287.5 YPG in two games of service.
Arizona had a hell of a problem last season in giving up scores through the air. They gave up 36 touchdown passes in 2008. The Cardinals have only surrendered three passing TDs so far this year, which trends to a much better secondary.
Another aspect of the Cardinals’ defense is their ability to reach the quarterback. They averaged just under two sacks per game last year. Through two tilts in ’09, the Cards have pulled in eight sacks. Bertrand Berry has two sacks and Darnell Dockett has one sack this season as well.
Will the Cards be able to reach Manning for a loss of yards this weekend? He’s only been sacked twice this year and 16 times since the start of 2008. “The Colts Offensive Line does a terrific job allowing Peyton Manning plenty of time in the pocket. If he's on the field more than 15 minutes this week (and he will be) he should take advantage of a Cardinal pass defense that ranked in the bottom half of the league last season,” says Lawrence.
I’m sure one of the questions a lot of bettors will have on this game is why did the Colts go from favorites to ‘dogs. And how did the betting shops get to this number? Bodog’s Richard Gardner explains how they go to that number. “The line was set at Arizona -2.5 for a combination of factors including injuries, previous performances, the short week, and home field advantage. So while Pierre Garcon had the big catch at the end of the game, with Garcon and (Austin) Collie only combining for 2 catches for 52 yards there are still questions surrounding the effect of the injury to (Anthony) Gonzalez on the team. When you add that to the fact that the Colts allowed 239 yards rushing last week and how they go in to slumps where the run defense disappears for stretches this could be another game where Arizona can create offensive balance which is a real boon for the Cardinals.”
These two clubs aren’t the most familiar of foes with just four head-to-head meeting since 1990. Indianapolis has owned the recent battles with a 3-1 SU record. However, the Cardinals have paid off the gamblers with a 3-1 ATS mark. The ‘under’ cashed in all four games.
Since the beginning of last season, home favorites on Sunday Night Football have gone 11-4 SU, but just 7-7-1 ATS. The ‘under’ is 10-5 in those battles.
The Colts have been profitable on the road recently, as evidenced by a 7-3 SU and 6-3-1 ATS record. The ‘over’ is just 6-4 for Indy during that run.
Ken Whisenhunt has had his club ready when at home. The Cardinals are 14-5 SU and 12-7 ATS at University of Phoenix Stadium in Whisenhunt’s first two years as head coach. The ‘over’ is 14-5 as well.
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com
