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The end of the first quarter in the NFL season comes for 28 teams this weekend with Week 4. There are plenty of surprising teams that are unbeaten (Broncos and Jets), as well as playoff teams from a year ago still seeking their first victory (Titans, Panthers, and Dolphins). Thankfully, the NFL Handicapping Challenge returns for another week of fun and prizes. For me, last week was one to forget, going 1-4, to bring my overall record to 7-8. Just like the old rule in gambling, one must have a short-term memory and move forward, which is exactly what we'll do.
1) Titans (-2 ½) at Jaguars
Tennessee is one of seven winless teams in the NFL, but Jeff Fisher's squad may be the most talented out of this group. The Titans have lost two games with leads in the fourth quarter, at Pittsburgh and at home to Houston. Jacksonville, meanwhile, is coming off its first victory of the season beating the Texans on the road.
The Titans own the league's second-best run defense, and have been torched through the air. The Jags don't exactly have the best passing attack, throwing for 202 yards/game, which ranks 19th in the league.
Tennessee is 4-2 SU/ATS the last six meetings against Jacksonville, including a season sweep in 2008. The Jags are 1-5 ATS since 2006 following a SU division win, and 5-8 the last 13 games ATS off a SU underdog victory.
Final score: Titans 24, Jaguars 16
2) Saints (-6 ½) vs. Jets
The only meeting between two undefeated teams takes place at the Superdome this Sunday, as two non-playoff teams from a season ago look to go 4-0. The Saints are 5-1 ATS the last six meetings with AFC teams, while Sean Payton's team leads the NFL in total offense at 438 yards/game.
The Jets have been impressive out of the gate, beating the Patriots and Titans the last two weeks at home. Rex Ryan's defense ranks third in the league overall, including fifth against the pass.
It's tough to go against an offense clicking like the Saints, and difficult to think the Jets will have enough offense to keep up in the Big Easy.
Final score: Saints 31, Jets 20
3) Ravens (+2 ½) at Patriots
The Ravens have been ultra-impressive to begin the season, scoring 31 points or more in all three victories. Granted, Baltimore has beaten a pair of winless teams in Kansas City and Cleveland. However, it's tough to fault the Ravens' offensive attack, which ranks second behind New Orleans in total offense. The Patriots, meanwhile, improved to 2-1 with a 26-10 victory over the Falcons, thoroughly outgaining Atlanta, 445-257.
The last time the Ravens played the Patriots was 2007 in Baltimore on a Monday Night. Many people will remember that game as probably the best chance for New England to lose in that undefeated regular season, but the Pats rallied for a 27-24 win.
The Pats are just 1-7 ATS at home off a home game dating back to 2006, while New England is 12-16 ATS the last 28 at Gillette Stadium. The Ravens own an amazing 17-5 ATS mark under John Harbaugh since he took over in 2008, including a 9-3 ATS road mark.
Final score: Ravens 27, Patriots 24
4) Dolphins (+1 ½) at Bills
Miami comes into this contest at 0-3, looking awful offensively and defensively. The Dolphins will begin the Chad Henne era after Chad Pennington suffered a season-ending shoulder injury against the Chargers. The only positive for the Dolphins defense is not seeing a Pro Bowl type quarterback this week after facing Matt Ryan, Peyton Manning, and Philip Rivers.
The Bills will get Marshawn Lynch back in the lineup this week, after missing the first three weeks with a league-mandated suspension. Buffalo was run all over by New Orleans last Sunday, allowing 222 yards on the ground. The Dolphins own the third best rushing attack in the league, and will likely concentrate on the run so Henne has to make less plays.
It's also hard to forget the zero catches made by Terrell Owens against New Orleans, while T.O. has made just five catches the entire season for 98 yards. Lee Evans hasn't been much better, picking up eight receptions for 88 yards.
Final score: Dolphins 17, Bills 13
5) Steelers (-6 ½) vs. Chargers
Pittsburgh returns home after two disappointing losses in the final minute on the road. The Steelers host a Chargers' squad that leaves the state of California for the first time this season. The Bolts are coming off two wins against a pair of teams with plenty of issues, the Dolphins and Raiders. San Diego was lit up defensively in its lone loss to Baltimore.
Both these teams rank in the bottom six in rushing offense, as the LaDainian Tomlinson injury has not helped the San Diego ground attack. If Pittsburgh can win this game, they will be in excellent shape, as the Steelers battle the Lions and Browns the next two games.
Final score: Steelers 30, Chargers 20
You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at rogers@vegasinsider.com
