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As we look ahead to another week in the NFL, there are a number of solid trends to keep an eye on. With more scenarios unfolding three weeks into the season, not only will we give you trends on certain games, but also include situations with 3-0 and 0-3 teams.
First off, teams hosting 3-0 clubs the last five seasons are just 4-8 ATS, as the teams that qualify here are the Saints, Chiefs, and Patriots. Home teams that take on 0-3 clubs are 7-2 to the 'over' the last five seasons, as the Jaguars, Redskins, and 49ers qualify for this system. Away teams that travel to 3-0 clubs haven't fared well over the last five seasons, going 3-11 SU and 6-8 ATS. Teams that fall under this particular system are the Jets, Packers, and Seahawks.
Giants (-9, 42) at Chiefs - 1:00 PM EST
The Giants have looked strong out of the gate, starting 3-0, heading to 0-3 Kansas City. New York is laying plenty of points at Arrowhead, but that hasn't been a problem for the G-Men in the past. Since Tom Coughlin arrived in 2004, the Giants are 12-5 ATS as road favorites, while compiling a 29-14-1 ATS mark away from the Meadowlands.
This will be the third consecutive road contest for New York, following victories at Dallas and Tampa Bay. The last five seasons, teams playing their third straight road game are 19-8-2 to the 'over,' including a perfect 5-0 mark last season.
The Chiefs have been a horrible home play since 2007, going 4-12-1 ATS at Arrowhead. Despite all the personnel and coaching changes over the years, Kansas City has the cashed the 'over' in seven of the last nine home games against NFC opponents.
Lions at Bears (-10, 39) - 1:00 PM EST
The Bears have not been a profitable play under Lovie Smith when laying double-digits, going 1-6 ATS. The Lions have covered the last two meetings at Soldier Field, winning SU in 2007, while falling by four last season as 13-point underdogs.
Detroit is 10-3 ATS the last 13 games as double-digit 'dogs, including an 8-1 ATS mark if they are on the road. The lone loss came in Week 1 at New Orleans, losing 45-27 as two-touchdown underdogs.
Bengals (-5 ½, 38 ½) at Browns - 1:00 PM EST
The Browns continue to be the biggest circus in the league (even more than the Raiders) with all the changes at quarterback. Head coach Eric Mangini has decided to go with former Pro Bowler Derek Anderson at quarterback this week, replacing Brady Quinn after only two games. However, there is a fantastic trend that points to Cleveland this week.
The Browns are coming off a blowout loss at Baltimore, as home 'dogs off a road loss of at least 21 points are 26-13 ATS the last five seasons. If the home 'dog lost on the road by more than 28 points, the record improves to 14-5 ATS.
The Bengals are sky-high after victories over the Packers and Steelers as underdogs. Cincinnati is just 1-5 ATS the last two seasons as road 'chalk.' Even though Anderson has fallen hard following his Pro Bowl season of 2007, the Browns' QB threw for 328 yards and five touchdowns against Cincinnati in a 51-45 victory two seasons ago.
Packers at Vikings (-3 ½, 45 ½) - 8:30 PM EST (Monday)
The Brett Favre bowl happens on Monday night in Minneapolis, as the Hall of Fame quarterback takes on his former team for the first time. The Vikings come in at 3-0, while the Packers sit at 2-1, but Green Bay has been money in this spot.
Under Mike McCarthy, the Pack is 8-1 ATS on the road against division opponents, including a perfect 3-0 ATS mark at Minnesota. In fact, each of the last six meetings in Minnesota has been decided by less than seven points.
The Vikings are only 2-7-1 ATS the last two seasons off a home win, including an 0-5 ATS mark last season.
You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at rogers@vegasinsider.com
