It’s not uncommon for someone to take a little bit of time to get the hang of everything that is going on. That can certainly come into play with oddsmakers when setting lines in the NFL.
Now I don’t want that to sound like the sportsbooks don’t know what they’re doing when posting the numbers. These shops have a great grasp on all that is going on. However, a lot of things can and will change from the initial power ratings the books have on hand.
The betting shops certainly appear to have reached their groove this week in the NFL. Out of the 14 games on the Week 4 schedule, only three of them have seen the spread move by a ½-point on betED.
Randy Scott, sportsbook manager for betED, gives his take on how the lines aren’t seeing as much movement. “The line is a reflection of stats, as the season progresses and more stats come in, then the line will appear more accurate to the bettor, creating a lot of two-way opinions.”
“That input makes the early one-sided action drop and keep the lines at bay. It doesn't mean the lines are cemented in until kick off, you can bet come game day this week, the NFL lines will indeed move, possibly move more than the previous three weeks,” Scott concludes.
One tilt that we’ve seen a small move in the line is between the Titans and Jacksonville. Tennessee originally opened as a 2 ½-point road favorite. And as of Friday afternoon, the Titans are now three-point faves.
This is a tough spot to handicap as you have the defending AFC South champs winless after three weeks of play. In the other corner stand the Jaguars, who are one of the tougher teams to get a handle on.
What is interesting here for the Titans is the fact that is actually gaining more yards per game on offense this year (361.0) than 2008 (318.8). The problem is that they have ran into two horribly tough defenses (Pittsburgh and New York Jets) and got outslugged the other (Houston).
The plus side for Jeff Fisher’s team for bettors is that they have gone 4-1 straight up and against the spread versus the Jags. Gamblers at Sportsbook.com are buying into the Titans again here with 92 percent of the money going towards them to cover.
While the lines have stayed close to the original posted number, sometimes the betting shops expect some movement.
“The Giants line has caught my attention; I expected that to move up by now - it should and probably will by Sunday. So far, the Giants and Bengalis are taking the most one-sided action this week. The rest of the games are more balanced with light action only. That's due to the lines being a bit more accurate as the season progresses,” says betED’s Scott.
New York has proven they can beat up on teams and also have the mettle to come from behind in this short season. However, the lack of movement has to be directly linked to some injuries to the G-Men. Wide receiver Domenik Hixon (knee) is “out” for the second straight week. Hakeem Nick (foot) is “questionable” after limited practice time this week. Not terrible losses since they have Steve Smith and Mario Manningham playing so well. It also helps to know that the Giants have not lost to Kansas City since 1995.
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com
