Editor's Note: Kevin Rogers' pro football selections can be purchased on VegasInsider.com Click to win!
There are plenty of solid trends to watch out for as we head into Week 5 of the NFL season. The number of undefeated teams is at five (Colts, Giants, Saints, Broncos, and Vikings), while six other clubs are searching for their first victory (Titans, Chiefs, Bucs, Panthers, Rams, and Browns). Not only will we take a look at several games this week with pertinent trends, but also situations with 4-0 and 0-4 teams at this point of the season.
Home teams that battle 0-4 opponents the last five seasons are just 3-7-1 ATS, while home favorites laying at least 10 ½ points against 0-4 teams are 5-11 ATS since 1983. The only team that qualifies this week is the Eagles, taking on the hapless Bucs.
Meanwhile, road teams that have to travel to 0-4 opponents the last five seasons are 1-5 ATS and 5-1 to the 'over.' Dating back to 1984, these teams are 10-23 ATS (30%). Three teams qualify for this system, including the Vikings, Cowboys, and Colts.
Indianapolis goes to Tennessee on Sunday night, as home teams taking on 4-0 opponents the last five years are 6-2-1 ATS. The Titans are the lone qualifier this week, which works out well both ways to back Tennessee and fade Indianapolis according to the previous system.
Buccaneers at Eagles (-15, 43) - 1:00 PM EST
Philadelphia returns from the bye week, as Donovan McNabb comes back to the Eagles lineup after missing the last two games with a rib injury. This is a prime spot to back Philadelphia, as the Eagles are 8-3 ATS in the regular season under Andy Reid following the bye, including a 10-1 mark to the 'under.'
The Bucs scored a touchdown on their first possession last week at Washington, but failed to reach the end zone during the remainder of a 16-13 loss to the Redskins. Tampa Bay now sits at 0-4, as the Bucs are 4-8 ATS their last 12 road games when coming off an away contest.
Vikings (-10, 40) at Rams - 1:00 PM EST
It's a battle of the haves and have-nothings when Minnesota and St. Louis hook up on Sunday. The Vikings are a perfect 4-0, while the Rams are languishing at 0-4. Some of the thinking is Minnesota may have a letdown following the emotional victory over Green Bay on Monday night. That probably won't happen this week, as the Rams have been shut out twice this season, while scoring double-digits only once.
St. Louis is a miserable 4-10 ATS as a home underdog since the start of the 2007 season, including a 2-6 ATS mark when receiving at least a touchdown. The Rams are 4-0 ATS the last four home meetings with the Vikings, even though Minnesota last visited St. Louis in 2003.
The Vikings haven't been a spectacular play on the road off a home win under Brad Childress. Minnesota is just 3-6-1 ATS in this spot, dating back to 2006, including an 0-4 ATS mark last season.
Patriots (-3, 41) at Broncos - 4:15 PM EST
The battle of the minds takes place at Invesco Field as former coaching colleagues Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels meet up Sunday. Amazingly, Denver owns a better record than New England after four weeks, as the two teams are a combined 7-1.
Despite a loss as road 'chalk' to the Jets in Week 2, the Patriots are still an excellent play when laying points away from home. Since 2004, New England is 24-9 ATS as a road favorite, including a 15-4 ATS mark as single-digit road 'chalk.' However, the Pats have struggled in the Mile High City, going 1-3 SU/ATS the last four meetings at Invesco.
The Broncos have been one of the better stories this season in the NFL, but Denver is still 5-17-1 ATS the last 23 home games, dating back to 2006. The Broncos face the Chargers next week, and Denver has not been a solid play prior to playing San Diego, going 3-15 ATS the last nine seasons in this spot.
Jets (-2, 36) at Dolphins - 8:30 PM EST (Monday)
The Jets look to rebound after losing their first game of the season at New Orleans, 24-10. Rex Ryan's club heads back south this week to take on the Dolphins, who won their first contest over the Bills, 38-10. The Jets have owned this series over the years, winning eight of the last ten meetings, while going 8-1-1 ATS.
Under Tony Sparano, the Dolphins are 3-8 ATS at home, including a 1-4 ATS record as a home 'dog. Dating back to 2004, Miami is 4-12 ATS at home off a SU win, including a 1-5 ATS mark last season.
You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at rogers@vegasinsider.com
