Before the season started this Week 5 showdown between the Colts and Titans at LP Field as an early battle for AFC South supremacy. Now Tennessee (0-4 straight up, 1-3 against the spread) has its proverbial back against the wall for NBC’s Sunday Night Football at 8:20 p.m. EDT.
The Titans opened the season with a tough 13-10 road loss in Pittsburgh in a game where they had every chance to win. It’s been all downhill from then on for Tennessee as they’ve fallen to the Texans, Jets and Jaguars – all teams that failed to yield a winning 2008 campaign.
What exactly has happened to Jeff Fisher’s club to turn them into an also-ran in 2009? VegasInsider.com’s expert handicapper Bruce Marshall thinks a lot of the Titans’ success had to some good luck that fell into their lap. “I think their success was something that really snowballed almost accidentally last season, triggered by a couple of early events that, if they didn't happen, could have changed the direction of the campaign. Specifically, Vince Young’s early injury and Collins stepping in at quarterback turned out to be an incredible stroke of good luck. The Titans won a few early close games, and the momentum began to surge. They made few mistakes last season (only 17 TOS all season). The defense was robust and injuries were relatively few.”
Marshall makes a good point on Tennessee holding onto the ball. Last year, the Titans were second in the league with a giveaway-takeaway mark of plus-14. Through four tilts this season, they are a paltry minus-five.
Injuries have taken their toll on the Titans’ secondary. Safety Vincent Fuller (forearm) is “out” until November. Cornerbacks Cortland Finnegan (hamstring) and Nick Harper (ribs) are both listed as “questionable” for Sunday’s showdown. Those are huge losses for a group that allowed just 199.8 passing yards per game last season. They’re giving up a league worst 282.3 YPG through the air in 2009.
Marshall thinks it all starts with the man who isn’t there running the show. “The turnovers and injuries haven't helped, and (Albert) Haynesworth's departure was a blow, but I think the biggest difference since a year ago is the departure of defensive coordinator (Jim) Schwartz. The stop unit isn't the same this season and I think Schwartz's absence is a main reason. The breakdowns in the secondary, which have led to big plays and points allowed, which have led to a different pace of the last three games, which has led to Colllins' reduced effectiveness and the turnover problems, are all byproducts of the defensive breakdowns. Caused mostly, I believe, by Schwartz's departure. And it creates a very scary scenario vs. Peyton Manning and the Colts. If Matt Schaub, David Garrard, and Mark Sanchez have looked good against this Titan defense, it's scary how Manning could look Sunday night.”
It is going to be a tough task to stop Indianapolis’ (4-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) offense right now. The Colts are sixth in scoring offense (26.5 points per game) and lead the league in passing offense (334.0 YPG). Perhaps even more frightening is the fact that Indy is pulling in those numbers by ranking near the bottom in time of possession, averaging just below 28 minutes per game.
Those stats make it a pretty easy to understand why Manning leads the league with a 114.5 quarterback rating. But the fact that he’s doing this without Marvin Harrison and Anthony Gonzalez in the lineup is impressive. Dallas Clark has caught 26 passes for 364 yards and two touchdowns. Meanwhile, youngsters Pierre Garcon (10 receptions, 207 yards, 2 TD) and Austin Collie (12 receptions, 131 yards, 1 TD) have stepped up.
The Colts’ have clicked on the attack this year. They’ve scored 11 touchdowns in their last three games – six of them were on drives that lasted less than two minutes, 30 seconds. And of those six scores, only one was less than 60 yards.
Indianapolis has dominated the outright numbers of this series with a 7-3 SU mark, but they’re just 5-5 ATS. The Titans have gone 5-1 ATS in the last six head-to-head meetings. The ‘under’ is on a profitable 7-1 run between these rivals.
Bodog initially opened the line for this game with the Colts as 3 ½-point road favorites with a total of 46. That line has now moved with Indianapolis as a four-point road “chalk” with the total moving down to 45.
Richard Gardner of Bodog gives us a peak into why the spread is where it has been posted. “The line opened at -3.5 and has moved to -4 with heavily action as this easily the most off side game. The Titans injuries to the secondary obviously play a part, but even more important has been the offensive excellence shown by the Colts. The new wide receivers appear to have clearly defined roles and the general public has always loved to bet on teams where the offense is on a roll. Throw in the fact that the Titans have disappointed a lot of bettors and are still winless, and it creates the recipe for the one way action.”
It’s hard to tell what a win would do for the Titans in this spot. They’re in New England next weekend to take on the Patriots. Then Tennessee plays host to the Jaguars after its bye week. Follow that up with a road trip to San Francisco to take on a tough 49er defense. It’s very possible that the Titans could be 0-8 before taking on the Bills at LP Field for Week 10.
A win for Indy would give them even more momentum as they head into the open date on its schedule next week. The Colts have a solid chance to stay unbeaten with a road trip to St. Louis, then at home to play San Francisco and Houston.
The gambling public should note that the underdogs have gone 2-3 SU, but 3-1-1 ATS on Sunday Night Football this season. The ‘under’ had gone 3-2 in those primetime affairs as well. Don’t forget that we’re including the aforementioned Steelers-Titans matchup that was played on Thursday.
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com
