Editor’s Note: The Dolphins and Jets clash in a MNF showdown tonight and our stable of professional handicappers have this divisional clash pegged. Click to win!
When the Jets and Dolphins hooked up the final week of the 2008 regular season, Brett Favre and Chad Pennington anchored their respective teams for a shot at the AFC East title. Miami came out with a 24-17 road victory, knocking New York out of the playoffs, and propelling the Dolphins to their first AFC East title since 2000. Things have changed in many different facets as the two teams meet up again Monday night in Miami.
Favre has moved off to Minnesota, while Pennington is out for the season with a right shoulder injury suffered at San Diego. Also, Rex Ryan is the man patrolling the sidelines in place of Eric Mangini, who was fired days after the Jets' late season meltdown. Ryan's defensive philosophy brought over from his days as the defensive coordinator of the Ravens has paid dividends through the first month at his new job.
The Jets are 3-1 out of the gate, thanks to strong defensive efforts in each contest. New York has allowed only three offensive touchdowns this season, while facing four teams that rank in the top half of the league in yards per game. Only one team, New Orleans, has eclipsed the 300-yard plateau against New York, despite scoring only one offensive touchdown (the Saints tallied two defensive touchdowns).
Rookie Mark Sanchez is leading the Jets' offensive attack, which until last week, limited turnovers. The Jets equaled their turnover amount from the first three weeks combined in the New Orleans loss, giving the ball away four times against the Saints. Sanchez has thrown for less than 175 yards in each of the last three games after a 272-yard effort in the opening week win at Houston, 24-7. Sanchez will be helped out at wide receiver, as the Jets acquired Braylon Edwards from the Browns on Wednesday to bolster the passing game.
The Dolphins lead the NFL in rushing after four weeks, thanks to Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams anchoring the attack. This isn't all attributed to the "Wildcat" offense in which Brown stands in shotgun formation, but it has proven to be a success so far. The running game has been good to the Dolphins also on the defensive side, ranking second in the league in rushing defense, allowing 61 yards/game.
Miami faced one of the more difficult schedules to begin the season, facing three playoff teams from a season ago, the Falcons, Colts, and Chargers. The Dolphins started the season not only 0-3 straight-up, but 0-3 against the spread. Miami was held below 300 yards in total offense in losses at Atlanta and San Diego, but accumulated massive rushing stats in the two home games against the Colts and Bills. The Fins rushed for 239 yards against Indianapolis in a 27-23 loss, while compiling 250 yards on the ground in a 38-10 blowout of Buffalo last week.
Chad Henne will be making only his second career start on Monday, in place of the injured Pennington. The learning curve is sped up by about a season, as Henne was expected to be the starter when Pennington would potentially retire, or not be re-signed by Miami. Henne was put in a tough spot at San Diego, despite the Dolphins leading, 6-3. The Chargers eventually took the lead on a Philip Rivers' touchdown run, then sealed the game with an Eric Weddle interception return for a touchdown off Henne for a 23-13 victory. Henne finished the San Diego game completing 10 of 19 passes for 92 yards and the one interception.
Henne's numbers improved against Buffalo, throwing for 115 yards, including a touchdown pass to rookie receiver Brian Hartline. The game plan against the Bills wasn't terribly difficult, as the Dolphins concentrated on running the ball versus a defense that allowing over 220 yards on the ground against New Orleans the week prior.
VI capper Bruce Marshall sees a low-scoring affair at Landshark Stadium, "Defenses should dominate in what should be a slower-paced game. Henne didn't have to do much in his first start last week. We doubt the Miami running game is going to do much versus the Jets' active front seven, so Henne will be forced to make more happen than a week ago." On the opposite side, Marshall says the Jets' rookie signal-caller won't be in for a picnic, "Sanchez might not find the going much easier for the Jets, but the dominant platoon in this game appears to be the Jets' defense. We prefer the Jets and would take a good look at the 'under' as well."
The Jets have owned this series over the years, going 8-2 SU the last ten meetings, while posting an 8-1-1 ATS mark. The Dolphins are 3-8 ATS at home, including a 1-4 ATS record as a home 'dog under Tony Sparano. Since 2004, Miami is 4-12 ATS at home off a SU victory, including a 1-5 ATS mark last season.
Monday Night Football has been the place to light up the scoreboard dating back to the start of last season, with the 'over' hitting in 18 of 23 games (with one push). Monday's total of 36 is the second-lowest in this span, with the 34 ½ between Baltimore and Pittsburgh in Week 4 last season being the lowest.
Randy Scott, the sportsbook manager of BetEd.com says the road team is seeing plenty of the money go their way, "The Jets are currently the popular team, more so since they traded for Braylon Edwards earlier this week. The Jets have been a public favorite since Week 2 and this game is no exception. The action is heavily one-sided with the Jets holding over 90% of the early bets."
Thanks to the large amounts of money wagered on the Jets, Scott moved the line, "We've adjusted the 'vig' towards the favored Jets. We aren't sure how much of an impact Edwards will make his first game out, so the line does not reflect the trade - just the money wagered. We will only move the spread and juice along with the incoming volume."
The Jets are listed as two-point road favorites in most spots, with the total set at 36.
You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at rogers@vegasinsider.com