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Very little has changed from Week 4 to Week 5 in the NFL, as the league's elite continues to play well, while the league's bottom-feeders continue to struggle. As far as the NFL Handicapping Challenge goes, Week 5 was another winning week for me, finishing 3-2 for the fourth time this season. Hopefully the luck stays up this week, as my eye is geared towards some underdog plays.
1) Texans (+4 ½) at Bengals
Cincinnati has proven to be a legit team, winning four straight after the freak Opening Week loss to Denver. The Bengals are looking good in division play, going 3-0, with victories over AFC North opponents in each of the last three weeks. So obviously Cincinnati is going to beat Houston, right? Only if it were that easy.
The Texans are 2-3, with a pair of losses by less than a touchdown. Houston overcame a 21-0 deficit at Arizona last week to tie the game at 21, but fell 28-21. Houston's defense hasn't be great, but Cincinnati's pass "D" is nothing to write home about, as the Bengals are allowing 229 yards/game through the air. The Texans rank fifth in the league in passing offense, and need a jolt from RB Steve Slaton, who hasn't rushed for more than 76 yards in a game this season.
Final score: Bengals 21, Texans 17
2) Giants (+3 ½) at Saints
A pair of undefeated clubs meet up at the Superdome on Sunday, as New Orleans comes off the bye. The Saints haven't performed well after the bye under Sean Payton, going 0-4 ATS.
New York's last three wins have come against teams that are a combined 1-14. However, the Giants have dominated in four of five games, while beating the Cowboys on a last-second field goal. Since 2006, the G-Men are 25-7 ATS on the road, including 14-4 ATS as away underdogs.
Final score: Giants 27, Saints 21
3) Rams (+9 ½) at Jaguars
St. Louis has been absolutely abysmal this season, losing all five games. However, the Rams are facing a Jaguars team that was utterly humiliated at Seattle this past week, falling 41-0 to the Seahawks.
Jacksonville's two victories this season have come as underdogs against division opponents, as the Jags are 3-9 ATS since 2008 against teams that are not from the AFC South. Jack Del Rio's club is 0-6 ATS the last six as a home favorite, and 1-8 ATS the last nine when laying points.
Final score: Jaguars 17, Rams 10
4) Buccaneers (+3 ½) vs. Panthers
Similarly to St. Louis, Tampa Bay has been an unmitigated disaster through the first five weeks. However, this seems like a good spot to back the Bucs. Tampa Bay travels to London next week to take on New England, a game the Bucs have very little chance to win. Despite the 0-5 start, the Bucs still haven't played a division game yet.
Carolina needed to rally from a late 15-point deficit to beat Washington last week, but the Panthers have been far from impressive. John Fox's team is 2-5 ATS since 2006 on the road off a home victory. This seems too easy to back the Panthers here, I see Tampa Bay pulling off the upset.
Final score: Buccaneers 20, Panthers 19
5) Redskins (-6 ½) vs. Chiefs
Washington is the lone favorite I'm backing in the Challenge this week. This is almost a reverse trap, as many will think the Chiefs should stay within the number after last week's overtime loss to the Cowboys. Meanwhile, as mentioned earlier, the Redskins gave away a 17-2 lead in a 20-17 loss at Carolina.
Jim Zorn is on the hot seat, but the Redskins are 2-3, and have taken care of their business against two teams in Kansas City's class - St. Louis and Tampa Bay. Granted, Washington didn't cover either of those games, but the Redskins will face the league's worst pass defense this week. On the flip side, Washington is tied for fourth in passing defense with Pittsburgh.
Final score: Redskins 19, Chiefs 10
You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at rogers@vegasinsider.com
