Past the Giants and Saints playing this afternoon, the Bears and Falcons is the second best matchup on the Week 6 NFL card. Both Chicago and Atlanta are 3-1 out of the gate, while both are looking to sneak into the elite status of the NFC.
This game features two of the better young quarterbacks in the league, Jay Cutler and Matt Ryan, while a pair of dynamic running backs take center-stage, Matt Forte and Michael Turner. Following Cutler’s four interception performance in the opener at Green Bay, the former Broncos quarterback has tossed just one interception in the last three games, all Chicago victories. In the three wins over the Steelers, Seahawks, and Lions, Cutler has thrown seven touchdown passes.
Ryan has been equally impressive, tossing seven touchdowns passes and only two interceptions, while compiling nearly 1000 yards through four games. Ryan’s worst game came at New England, Atlanta’s lone loss on the season. The ex-BC signal-caller was held to 199 yards passing and no touchdowns in a 26-10 setback.
Following a 65-yard performance against the Dolphins in the season opener, Turner has scored five touchdowns the last three games. The Falcons running back found the end zone three times at San Francisco this past week, his third career game with at least three touchdowns. Turner faces a Bears defense that ranks ninth in the league in rushing defense, allowing 93.5 yards/game.
Forte was held in check the first three contests, not gaining more than 66 yards in the team’s 2-1 start. Forte blew up against the Lions, putting up 121 yards and a touchdown to help Chicago to its third victory. Atlanta ranks in the bottom ten of the league in rushing defense, yielding 127 yards/game, as the Falcons were fortunate not to face the injured Frank Gore last week in San Francisco.
Interestingly, the Bears have outgained only one opponent through four games, and that came in the opening week loss at Green Bay. On the flip side, Chicago has been outgained in all their of their victories, as the Bears put up less than 300 yards, but scored 48 points against Detroit before the bye.
The Bears' defense is taking a bit of hit without the services of Pro Bowl linebacker Brian Urlacher, who suffered a season-ending wrist injury against the Packers. Chicago allowed 346 total yards to Seneca Wallace and the Seahawks, then 398 total yards to Matthew Stafford and the Lions.
The Falcons finally busted out offensively last week at San Francisco, tallying 477 yards in a 45-10 pounding of the 49ers. The game was not only a big confidence-booster to the offense, but also to star wideout Roddy White. The former UAB wide receiver was limited to 119 yards the first three games before exploding for 210 yards and two touchdowns against San Francisco.
Atlanta is still trying to find consistency on both sides of the ball, putting up 281 yards against Miami and 257 at New England. However, the Falcons amassed 371 yards against Carolina, then had the huge output at San Francisco, as one can argue Atlanta had their better offensive performances against better defenses.
This will be the first primetime stage for the Falcons since a Monday Night contest on December 10, 2007. Go back into the memory vault, and you'll distinctly remember that game. The Falcons were blown out at home against the Saints, as hours later Bobby Petrino announced his sudden resignation as head coach, then was chanting, "Pig Suey," in Arkansas as the head man of the Razorbacks.
The Bears and Falcons played to a classic finish last season at the Georgia Dome in Week 6. The game was a field-goal fest in the first half, as Atlanta led 9-3 at the intermission. The Falcons even owned a nine-point lead in the final quarter thanks to a Ryan-to-White three-yard hookup. The Bears pulled ahead with 17 seconds remaining, as Kyle Orton hit Rashied Davis in the corner of the end zone to give Chicago the win. Or so the Bears thought.
Amazingly, the Falcons took the kickoff to their own 44, then Ryan connected with Michael Jenkins right in from of the Atlanta sidelines with one second left. Jason Elam booted a 48-yard game-winning field goal to give Atlanta the 22-20 victory in one of the most talked-about finishes of last season.
VI capper Bruce Marshall isn't 100% sold on the Falcons yet, "I might be one of the few that is still skeptical about the Falcons, which is a very hard thing to say after they destroyed the 49ers last week. No knocks at all on Ryan and that offense, but I still think this defense could be a problem, especially versus the run."
Marshall points out that the Falcons haven't been great in the run-stopping department, "New England pushed them around pretty good a few weeks ago, they don't have Grady Jackson as a run stuffer in the middle like a year ago, and Ole Miss rookie DT Peria Jerry is now out with injury. The Falcons also rank low in rush defense stats, which is a concern. This stop unit lost a lot (including Jackson) in free agency, and though they brought in some reinforcements, something tells me teams are going to be able to run on these guys."
The Falcons can definitely score with all of its skill position players, but Cutler still has capable targets, according to Marshall, "You get the feeling that the Bears are going to be involved in a lot of close games this season, and Cutler is already beginning to make a difference. Devin Hester and Earl Bennett are evolving into decent targets for the Vandy man, whose rocket arm is allowing the Bear offense to stretch the field like it couldn't dream of doing with its other QB's the past few years."
Randy Scott, the sportsbook manager at BetED.com says early money came in on Chicago. "The game opened at Falcons -3.5, -105. Since then, it's move off that key half point to -3, -120. Not because of the action, but to conserve market value. No one is using -3.5 right now."
As far as where the money is going now, Scott says there is no advantage either way, "The action is split, but the heavy public betting on this game hasn't started yet so it's hard to say at this point which direction it'll go. I anticipate the Falcons to get majority of the action. The key number of three in this game is considered absolute. Meaning, by moving it off either way creates more value than we are willing to give up."
The Falcons are currently listed as a three-point favorite, but in most spots you would have to lay $1.25 on Atlanta. The total, which hasn't received the same attention as the side, sits at 45 ½, but may jump to 46 by game-time.
You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at rogers@vegasinsider.com
