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Heading into Week 7 of the NFL, there are still plenty of things we are learning every week. For instance, are the Saints the best team in football? Perhaps. How bad are the Rams and Bucs? Pretty bad. As far as the NFL Handicapping Challenge goes, I am back square at .500 after a 2-3 week. This week gives all of us renewed hope to pick winners, and that's exactly what we'll do.
1) Chiefs (+4 ½) vs. Chargers
I have faded the Chiefs each of the last two weeks and lost, but I'm flipping sides in this one. Todd Haley's team is showing some flashes, not necessarily brilliance, but the Chiefs have just run a difficult gauntlet through the NFC East. Kansas City covered in a home overtime loss to Dallas, before knocking off Washington this past Sunday, 14-6.
The Chargers, meanwhile, are still very tough to figure out. This team has plenty of offensive weapons, but at times doesn't seem to be motivated. San Diego allowed a pair of special teams touchdowns in Monday's home loss to undefeated Denver, dropping the Chargers to 2-3.
The Bolts are not in a good spot here, as road teams off a Monday Night loss are 7-16 SU the last three seasons, and with San Diego laying points here, I'll take the points with Kansas City.
Final score: Chiefs 20, Chargers 17
2) Bears (+1 ½) at Bengals
The Cincinnati Bengals have been a nice story, beginning the season at 4-2. However, much of that is smoke and mirrors, as the Bengals were handled at home by the Texans on Sunday, 28-17. Cincinnati did rally for three wins against their division opponents in three straight weeks prior to the Houston loss. Yes, you can point to the opening week loss to the Broncos as unfortunate. Digging deeper, the Bengals have played better on the road than at home.
On the flip side, the Bears have thrown away two games this season, at Green Bay and at Atlanta. The first loss could be put on Jay Cutler and his four interceptions, but the Bears still had an excellent chance to win that game. The loss on Sunday to the Falcons wasn't on Cutler as much as others on the offense squandering red-zone opportunities.
The Bengals are 0-6-1 ATS under Marvin Lewis as a favorite off a double-digit loss, as Cincinnati will fall again at home.
Final score: Bears 24, Bengals 16
3) Steelers (-4 ½) vs. Vikings
Pittsburgh and Minnesota are a combined 10-2 SU, but the Steelers have not been a profitable ATS play. Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS, but three of those losses have come as favorites of at least 6 ½ points.
Minnesota's three road opponents so far aren't great reasons to back the Vikings away from the Metrodome. The Vikes have beaten the Browns, Lions, and Rams all by double-digits, but those three teams are a combined 2-16 SU. In two of Minnesota's other victories, the Vikings rallied late at home to beat the Niners and Ravens. Brad Childress' team has been impressive with its 6-0 start, but this is the week they fall.
Final score: Steelers 27, Vikings 20
4) Raiders (+6 ½) vs. Jets
Oakland regained some semblance of life with a 13-9 upset of Philadelphia on Sunday as two-touchdown underdogs. The Raiders are now 2-4, and interestingly are one game worse than the Jets heading into this matchup. New York has dropped three straight following a 3-0 start. The icing on the cake for the Jets was the six-turnover performance in an overtime home loss to the dreadful Bills.
Five of those turnovers belonged to Mark Sanchez, who tossed five interceptions. In the last three losses, the USC rookie has thrown eight INT's and just one touchdown. Both these teams have been outgained in total yards in four of their six games.
The Jets will be without defensive stalwart Kris Jenkins for the remainder of the season after tearing his ACL against the Bills. New York should not be laying this many points, especially on the road.
Final score: Jets 16, Raiders 13
5) Giants (-7 ½) vs. Cardinals
The Giants were completely embarrassed at New Orleans last week, as Drew Brees and the Saints offense lit up the league's top defense. It doesn't get easier when the Cardinals come to the Meadowlands this Sunday night. However, Arizona brings in one of the league's worst rushing offenses, averaging 57 yards/game.
The Cards are 1-5 ATS in the regular season under Ken Whisenhunt off a SU road win, coming off the blowout victory at Seattle. The Giants are 7-3-1 ATS since 2007 prior to a division game, so there is very little look-ahead for Tom Coughlin's team, as New York travels to Philadelphia next week.
Final score: Giants 31, Cardinals 22
You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at rogers@vegasinsider.com
