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Six teams are on the bye in Week 7, but that does not limit the amount of solid trends to keep an eye on this week in the NFL. Plenty of interconference games highlight this week's card, as four of the five games in the "Trend Setters" spotlight come from contests involving teams from opposite conferences.
Packers (-7, 41) at Browns - 1:00 PM EST
Green Bay is looking for its second consecutive win over one of the league's have-nothings, after shutting out Detroit last week. Two of the Packers' three victories are against the Lions and Rams, which are in teams in the same class as this week's opponent.
There are several trends that favor the Packers in this spot, as Mike McCarthy's teams are 5-2 ATS the last seven games as a road favorite, while covering six of the last nine against AFC opponents. However, the Pack is just 6-10 ATS the last 16 games following a division contest.
The Browns have been a profitable home underdog recently, covering in their last home game in an overtime loss to the Bengals. Cleveland is 6-3-1 ATS the last ten at the Dawg Pound when receiving points.
Colts (-13, 46) at Rams - 1:00 PM EST
The most lopsided matchup (on paper) comes our way this week from Eastern Missouri, as the undefeated Colts battle the totally defeated Rams. St. Louis is coming off an overtime loss at Jacksonville last week, but this team still has not found its way into the win column.
To make matters worse, the Rams are not in a good wagering spot this week. St. Louis is 4-12 ATS the last 16 games as a home 'dog, while compiling a putrid 2-12 ATS mark off a road loss since 2007.
Indianapolis has been sterling on offense this season, and Sunday should be no exception, as the Colts are 9-3 ATS the last 12 road games against NFC opponents. However, under Peyton Manning, the Colts are just 4-3 ATS as double-digit road favorites.
Falcons at Cowboys (-4, 47) - 4:15 PM EST
Atlanta keeps rolling along, as the Falcons improved to 4-1 with the Sunday night win over Chicago. The Cowboys, meanwhile, survived a scare in Kansas City prior to their bye week, beating the Chiefs in overtime, 26-20.
This will be the first visit to Dallas for the Falcons since 2003, as Atlanta has several trends going against them this week. Under Mike Smith, the Falcons are 0-6 ATS off back-to-back wins, and just 2-5 ATS on the road off a home victory.
The Cowboys are only 4-7 ATS in Wade Phillips' tenure off a road win, but are 4-0 SU/ATS the last four coming off the bye.
Bills at Panthers (-6) - 4:15 PM EST
Both these underachieving teams are coming off division road triumphs last week, as Carolina goes for its third straight victory following an 0-3 start. The Bills, meanwhile, forced six turnovers in last week's overtime win over the Jets.
The Bills have been a good play in this spot, as Buffalo is 6-0 ATS the last six as a road underdog of 6 ½ points or more, including covers at the Patriots and Jets.
The Panthers are slowly putting things together after the disastrous beginning to the season, but that doesn't necessarily mean they should be backed. Carolina is 8-11 ATS under John Fox as a home favorite of at least 6 ½ points. The Panthers have hit the 'under' in four of their last six home games against the AFC.
Saints (-6 ½, 47) at Dolphins - 4:15 PM EST
New Orleans continues to impress each week, not only on the offensive side, but also the defensive end of the ball. The Saints are up to 5-0 after blowing out the previously unbeaten Giants. The Dolphins, meanwhile, have put together consecutive wins after an 0-3 start to slowly salvage their season.
In the Sean Payton era, the Saints own a spectacular 8-1 ATS mark as road favorites, including wins at Philadelphia and Buffalo this season. Amazingly, New Orleans has yet to face a division opponent, as the Saints take on the Falcons next week. That is relevant here, as the Saints are 11-6 ATS the last 17 prior to playing a team from the NFC South.
The Dolphins have several factors going against them in this contest, as Miami is 4-8 ATS at home under Tony Sparano. The home numbers are even worse as we dig deeper, with Miami going 2-5 ATS at home off a SU win, while compiling a 1-6 ATS home mark against teams outside the AFC East. Dating back to 2007, the 'Fins have struggled against the NFC, going 1-7-1 ATS.
You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at rogers@vegasinsider.com
