The New Orleans Saints looked like the NFL’s best team last weekend in a 48-27 win over the then-unbeaten New York Giants. But the Saints are a different team indoors, and that’s why they will lose this week in their first regular-season game in South Florida in 29 years.

Miami is currently a six-point dog.

I am well aware the Saints have scored on every opening drive this season and won every game by 14 points or more and have yet to trail. Also know that the Saints matched their season-high total of points Sunday against the same Giants defense that entered the game rated No. 1 overall in the NFL and No. 1 against the pass. I also know that New Orleans is plus-9 in turnover margin and has 15 takeaways to lead the league.

But suddenly the 2009 Dolphins look very much like the 2008 version only better because new starting QB Chad Henne gives Miami an actual downfield passing threat that Chad Pennington never could.

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And the Fins are a very good home team. Their one loss was a game in which they dominated the Colts but Peyton Manning worked his late magic. The past two weeks, a 38-10 win over Buffalo and a 31-27 victory over the Jets, the offensive line has been dominating. Against the Bills, Miami ran for 250 yards and didn’t turn the ball over (a staple of the 2008 team). Against the Jets, Miami rushed for 150 (the Wildcat formation netted Miami 110) and Henne had his best game so far. And, again, no turnovers for the Dolphins.

A strong run game puts Miami in short third downs, which is vital for a young QB like Henne. So far, the Dolphins have the league's highest third-down conversion percentage when there are 2 or fewer yards to go for a first down, converting on 17 of 20. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will help keep Drew Brees off the field.

On defense, Miami has been very good against the run so far. To beat the Saints you have to shut down the running game and make this team one-dimensional with Brees passing every down. The Saints are fourth in the NFL in rushing, averaging 159.6 yards per game.

Getting a pass rush will be vital for the Fins, especially because Miami’s secondary has surrendered 11 passing plays of 25 yards or more in five games. An inconsistent pass rush has contributed to an AFC-high 8.4 yards an attempt and 14.1 yards a completion vs. Miami. But star pass rusher Joey Porter practiced on Wednesday fully for the first time in a month and is ready to go.

Many of the Fins got healthy because they had last week off to prepare for this high-powered Saint offense. The Fins are 4-1-1 ATS in their past six following a bye, for what that’s worth. Last year they beat a good San Diego team following the bye.

Here’s one rare stat that favors Miami: The Saints are third-from-last in the NFL in kickoff return yards allowed, so perhaps the Fins’ Ted Ginn Jr. takes one back.

Most of the numbers – the Saints are 9-0 ATS in their past nine as a favorite of 3.5-10 – point toward New Orleans. But call this one a gut feeling and the fact that Miami is rested and really needs this more. Fins win by a field goal.