No matter how much we see of something cash in one week, it always seems be balanced out the following Sunday in the NFL. Two weeks back there were five favorites of 9 ½-points or better. Those faves posted a 4-1 record both straight up and against the spread.
Last week wasn’t nearly as surprising with six heavy favorites on the board, all of them getting heavy action from the public. Luckily for the betting shops, balance was restored to the force last weekend. Week 6 of the season saw the big favorites go 4-2 SU, which is to be expected. But the sportsbooks feasted on “chalk eaters” as the faves went 2-4 ATS.
We’re seeing a return to normality this week in the NFL with just three teams being favored by at least nine-points. There isn’t any argument about the faves this week as Indianapolis (-13 at St. Louis), Green Bay (-9 at Cleveland) and New England (-15 versus Tampa Bay in London) are all playing lesser opponents.
This Sunday’s marquee matchup comes with the unbeaten Vikings making the trip to Western Pennsylvania for a showdown with the defending champion Steelers. The public was fairly even in their betting pattern on this game since coming out with Pittsburgh as a 3 ½-point home favorite. Now it is currently up to 5 ½ at most betting parlors.
Randy Scott, sportsbook manager for betED, is going to be very busy with this matchup. “Last Sunday, we opened this game up at Pittsburgh -3 ½. This will be one of our high volume games, and by keeping the favorite a bit lower in this match will help create two-way action. Minnesota has been by far our bettors most popular team, balancing Vikings games has been near impossible. This week we are looking to get off lop-sided Vikings action.”
Some people might also think that Minnesota should get a little more respect since they’re unbeaten. Mr. Scott helps put some perspective on the Vikes’ hot start. “This line doesn't reflect their perfect record, had their wins be more convincing this line would be 3 points or less.” That makes complete sense when you consider that Brett Favre’s crew beat the 49ers and Ravens by the grace of God.
While that line makes sense, some were surprised by the Chargers being only favored by four-points at Kansas City. VegasInsider.com” expert handicapper Marc Lawrence thinks the Bolts are right where they should be. “For openers the Chargers take to the division road with one less day to prepare off the Monday night game. They have covered the spread in only one game this season and head coach Norv Turner is a notoriously slow starter. Both games against the Chiefs last year resulted in one-point victories for San Diego.”
Randy Scott gives us some clarity on San Diego’s short number. “The Bolts are banged up on defense, and playing in Arrowhead is one of the tougher places to play. The home team here is just coming off their first win of the season, a road win. The Chiefs are expected to step up for this game. They've played SD tough in recent meetings.”
Could this game be considering this as a trap for gamblers to get caught in? “Looking to attract San Diego action may seem like a trap, but this line shouldn't be at -6 anyway. So -4.5, -5 and -5.5 are the parameters for this game.”
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com
