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The final week of October provided NFL fans with a steady stream of blowouts across the league, as ten of 13 favorites covered. To make things even more interesting, six games were decided by at least 28 points, further separating the gap between the league's elite and trash. Speaking of trash, I lost four of five in the NFL Handicapping Challenge this past week, so it's time to go back to the drawing board and pick some winners.
1) Broncos (+3 ½) at Ravens - 1:00 PM EST
It's tough to go against the Broncos until they lose a game, as Denver remains as one of the three unbeaten teams left in the NFL. The Broncos have knocked off four quality teams this season, including the Bengals, Cowboys, Patriots, and Chargers, all as underdogs.
Meanwhile, the Ravens started out the season on fire at 3-0, but Baltimore has dropped three in a row. The Ravens have lost these three games by a combined 11 points, but it's tough to say they deserve to be at least 5-1. John Harbaugh's team needed a huge rally against the Vikings before falling, 33-31, and struggled offensively in a home loss to the Bengals.
Both teams are coming off the bye week, as each squad has good historical numbers following their off week. However, home favorites between 3 and 3 ½ points this season are only 2-6-1 ATS and 4-5 SU. Denver will move to 7-0 following this week.
Final score: Broncos 20, Ravens 17
2) Cowboys (-9 ½) vs. Seahawks - 1:00 PM EST
Similar to Denver and Baltimore, Seattle is coming off the bye week. However, the Seahawks are not a team to back when they leave cozy Qwest Field. Jim Mora's team is 0-2 on the road, with both losses by double-digits. The Cowboys are coming off a blowout victory of the Falcons, as Dallas is quietly 4-2.
The Cowboys have covered each of the last four meetings against the Seahawks, dating back to 2004, including a 34-9 Thanksgiving blowout at home last season. Seattle cannot run the ball, while the Seahawks are averaging 100 less yards a game on offense than the Cowboys.
Final score: Cowboys 30, Seahawks 16
3) Vikings (+3 ½) at Packers - 4:15 PM EST
Did you hear that Brett Favre makes his return to Lambeau Field this week? He does and the NFL world will be buzzing about it, while seeing if the Vikings can rebound from their first loss of the season. Minnesota committed two turnovers that resulted in a pair of defensive touchdowns in a 27-17 loss at Pittsburgh.
Meanwhile, Green Bay is coming off its fourth victory of the season, albeit over one of the league's worst teams. Three of the Packers' four wins have come against the Browns, Lions, and Rams, who are a combined 2-18. Minnesota took care of Green Bay at the Metrodome back in Week 4, 30-23, as Favre tossed three touchdowns.
The Packers have won each of the last three home meetings against the Vikings, but Minnesota is more of the complete team here and Favre will want to finish off the sweep at Lambeau.
Final score: Vikings 28, Packers 24
4) Chargers (-16 ½) vs. Raiders - 4:15 PM EST
Despite this game owning the biggest line of the week, the Raiders come into this contest deserving to be an underdog of this amount. Oakland has not scored more than 13 points in any of its last six games, while combining for 29 points the last five contests. San Diego, meanwhile, is coming off a blowout victory at Kansas City, 37-7.
Is this line warranted? The Raiders have five losses, with four of them coming by 20, 23, 37, and 38 points. The lone defeat by less than 20 points came against the Chargers in the season opener, 24-20. Simply put, the Raiders cannot keep up offensively with the Bolts, while the JaMarcus Russell experiment looks to be put on hold, as Bruce Gradkowski will get the start at quarterback for Oakland. I'll lay the points with this very fair line.
Final score: Chargers 31, Raiders 6
5) Panthers (+10 ½) at Cardinals - 4:15 PM EST
Arizona has looked impressive recently, winning three straight, as they return home to host a struggling Carolina squad. The Panthers are one of the biggest disappointments this season, but are looking to avenge the divisional playoff loss to the Cards last season.
Ken Whisenhunt's team caused six turnovers in a 33-13 thrashing of Carolina last January, after the Panthers edged the Cards, 27-23 in October. Under Whisenhunt, the Cardinals are 1-3 ATS as a favorite of at least 9 ½ points. The Panthers played well enough to win at Atlanta, while falling apart at the end in a Monday night loss to the Cowboys. This seems like too many points for the Cardinals to lay here.
Final score: Cardinals 21, Panthers 13
You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at rogers@vegasinsider.com
