A new week is here in the NFL, and with that more trends become available to peruse. The most reliable trend this NFL season has been backing favorites, as 'chalk' in Week 7 finished 10-2-1 ATS. What's even more disturbing is the 80% stat in which favorites that win straight-up this season are 56-14-1 ATS. The lines will get bigger as the gap continues to open between the league's good and bad teams, but we have four games circled that provide solid trends.
Dolphins at Jets (-3 ½, 40 ½) - 1:00 PM EST
These two teams met three weeks ago at Landshark Stadium, as Miami won a see-saw battle, 31-27 over New York on Monday Night Football. The Dolphins have now won and covered consecutive games against the Jets, including the Week 17 victory last season at the Meadowlands.
The Jets snapped a three-game skid with a 38-0 blowout of the Raiders to move to 4-3 on the season. New York has not been profitable as a home favorite since 2007, racking up a 4-7-1 ATS mark. Despite the loss at Miami, the Jets have owned this series, compiling a 9-2-1 ATS record the last 12 games against the Dolphins.
Miami looks to rebound after giving away a 21-point lead to New Orleans last week, as the Dolphins fared well last season on the road inside their division. The Fins went 3-0 SU/ATS in 2008 against the AFC East away from South Florida and are 5-3 ATS as a road 'dog under Tony Sparano.
Giants at Eagles (-1, 44) - 1:00 PM EST
It will be a great Sunday in the City of Brotherly Love as these two NFC East rivals throw down prior to Game 4 of the World Series between the Yankees and Phillies. The Eagles bounced back nicely after a surprising loss at Oakland by beating down Washington. The Giants, meanwhile, look to snap a two-game skid after slipping up against the Saints and Cardinals.
The Giants have been solid plays in two situations over the last few seasons going into this contest. Since 2006, Tom Coughlin's team is 8-2 ATS on the road inside the NFC East, including an underdog victory at Dallas in Week 2. The Giants have lost 22 games dating back to 2005, as New York has bounced back nicely with a 15-7 ATS mark following a SU loss.
The Eagles have struggled in the role of a home team off consecutive road games, going 1-7 ATS the last eight in this spot. However, Philadelphia is 8-2 ATS the last ten off a road division victory.
Seven of the last nine meetings have been won by the road team, while the underdog covered all nine times. The Giants are 4-0 ATS and 3-1 SU their last four trips to Lincoln Financial Field.
Texans (-3 ½, 41 ½) at Bills - 1:00 PM EST
Houston has been a nice surprise through the first seven weeks, starting 4-3. What's even more surprising is the fact that Gary Kubiak's team is favored on the road for only the fourth time in franchise history. The Bills, meanwhile, who seemed like a train-wreck through four weeks, have all of the sudden won consecutive road games to improve to 3-4.
This is not a prime spot to back the Texans (who are the only road favorite this week in the NFL), as Houston owns a 4-16 ATS mark in franchise history on the road off a home win. Also, the Texans have struggled against the AFC East recently, going 0-6 ATS their last six, including a Week 1 loss at home to the Jets as a three-point favorite.
The Bills have somehow scratched out victories the last two weeks, beating the Jets in overtime, then holding off the Panthers in Charlotte. Under Dick Jauron, Buffalo is 6-1 ATS as a home underdog off a SU 'dog win, winning outright as seven-point underdogs last week at Carolina.
Jaguars at Titans (-3, 44 ½) - 4:05 PM EST
Both these teams are coming off the bye week, but both are definitely in different states of mind. Jacksonville is 3-3 after knocking off St. Louis in overtime, while Tennessee tries to forget about the 59-0 pounding put on them at New England. The Titans are one of three winless teams in the league at 0-6, as Vince Young will start at quarterback this week.
The Jags have covered twice on the road against division opponents this season, cashing as a touchdown underdog at Indianapolis, while winning outright as a field goal 'dog in Houston. Jacksonville is now 5-2 ATS the last seven games as a road underdog against the AFC South. Despite getting blown out in their last road contest at Seattle, the Jags are 10-6 ATS when getting points away from Jacksonville since 2007.
The Titans continue to be an absolute mess following a 13-3 season a year ago. Tennessee has already lost at Jacksonville this season, but the following trend will flat-out scare you about the Titans. Under Jeff Fisher, the Titans are a startling 1-17 ATS as a home favorite of three points or more against an opponent who is coming off a SU win of less than ten points. Is that reason enough to fade Tennessee? Probably not, but it's hard to buy into the due factor with a team that has likely packed it in for the season.
You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at rogers@vegasinsider.com
