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Respect is a funny thing. Everybody wants respect, but not everyone wants to work for it. Perhaps it’s because it takes so long to attain that from someone else. Even worse is that a team can lose that respect as quickly as losing its first game of the season.
The Broncos needed to start the season with six consecutive to get some love by the media and the public alike. Yet it all was washed away for Denver (6-1 straight up, against the spread) last Sunday in a 30-7 loss to the Ravens as a four-point road underdog.
Denver will attempt to get that respect back as they play host to the Steelers on ESPN’s Monday Night Football at 8:30 p.m. EST.
One group that isn’t giving the Broncos much love this weekend is the sportsbooks. Pittsburgh (5-2 SU, 2-5 ATS) is listed as a three-point road “chalk” with a total of 40.
Randy Scott, sportsbook manager for betED, says that game against the Ravens played into this week’s spread. “Losing to Baltimore did come into play for this week’s game, but not heavily. They would still have been underdogs but the line might be shortened up because of the Broncos’ record.”
If you look at the Broncos’ offensive stats alone, then you can understand where Scott and other betting shops are coming from. Denver is 20th in the NFL in scoring offense (20.0 points per game), 17th in passing offense (231.0 yards per game) and 11th in running the ball (123.1 YPG).
Kyle Orton has been a fantastic game manager for Denver so far this season. He’s 12th among all quarterbacks with a 95.5 rating for the season. Orton also has touchdown-to-interception ratio this season of 9:1…No other starting signal caller in the NFL that has played at least seven games can lay claim to that number.
Something else about Orton that we should note is that he’s not been asked too many times to lead this team to a win this year. Out of his nine touchdown strikes, only four of them have come in the final quarter of play. In those four scores, only two were to take the lead. And one of those game winning scores from Orton came on a lucky tip pass to Brandon Stokley in the season opener against the Bengals.
Denver doesn’t have to ask too much of its offense thanks to a defense that has been smothering this year. The Broncos have the second best scoring defense in the league (13.7 PPG), eighth against the pass (180.6 YPG) and third defending the run (86.1 YPG). The Broncos are also having success in reaching the quarterback as they’ve picked up 23 sacks this season.
The Broncos will need their defense to keep up the strong play if they want to take down Pittsburgh. The Steelers have played much better as of late, winning four straight decisions after dropping their second and third games of the season.
One of the reasons for Pittsburgh’s success has been taking the ball to the air, and not the trenches. The defending champs are averaging 295.4 passing YPG in 2009 to rank third in the NFL. Ben Roethlisberger makes this passing attack run as he is completing 70.4 percent of his passes for 2,062 yards and 11 touchdowns. What “Big Ben” is also good at doing is taking sacks; he’s been dropped for a loss 20 times this season, to keep on paces for at least 40 sacks for the fourth straight season.
The Steelers are still dominant as a stopping unit, which shouldn’t shock anyone. They are seventh in scoring defense (18.4 PPG) and second overall against the run (80.3 YPG). Yet the secondary has been hit up a lot more than they’re used to this season. Pittsburgh has allowed 214.4 passing YPG in 2009: they were the best pass defense in 2008, surrendering 156.9 YPG through the air. Mike Tomlin’s defense also has more interceptions (20) than passing touchdowns allowed (12).
This game means the world to the Steelers as they are right in the thick of the AFC North hunt. Last year, they only had to face up with the Ravens for the divisional title. Now they get to fight with Cincinnati, as well as Baltimore to win the division and, at the very least, a playoff berth.
You never want to say a team can afford to lose a game, but Denver’s world doesn’t implode should they suffer a setback on Monday night. A loss for the Broncos will keep them in first place, but by only one game against the Chargers.
The Broncos shouldn’t feel like they’re in a strange spot here since they’ve been a home pup twice already this season, winning outright both times. That will no doubt make them a strong money line play for a plus-130 return (risk $100 to win $130). Randy Scott says you should expect numbers like that anymore. “You will see money lines that don't seem to add up to the pointspread. That's because the players are heavy on the dog moneyline and heavy on the favorite pointspread.”
Pittsburgh has not fared too well as a road favorite over the last two seasons. They’ve gone 7-7 SU in that spot, but a paltry 4-10 ATS for our concerns. Yet the “chalk” has gone 4-2 ATS in the last six games on Monday night this season.
Adding more fuel to that fire is the fact Denver is 3-0 SU and ATS in its last three Monday Night Football games that they were a home underdog.
Monday Night Football has been an ‘over’ extravaganza this season, going 7-1 through eight weeks of play. That looks to be the right trend to play this week as eight of the last 10 head-to-head meetings between the Broncos and Steelers have seen the ‘over’ cash tickets.
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com
