The NFL Handicapping Challenge is heating up as we head into Week 10, now sitting halfway through the season. This week started early with the the Niners knocking off the Bears on Thursday. I'm coming off another winning week, finishing 3-2, but it should have been 4-1 if it wasn't for a late pick-six in the Lions/Seahawks game (thanks a lot, Matt Stafford).
1) Panthers (+1 ½) vs. Falcons - 1:00 PM EST
Atlanta has been the ultimate home/road dichotomy, winning all four games at the Georgia Dome, while going 1-3 on the road. The Falcons beat the Panthers in Atlanta back in Week 2, covering as six-point favorites, 28-20. Carolina did pick up a pointspread victory last week at New Orleans, despite falling by ten to the undefeated Saints.
The Panthers have lost two of the last three home meetings with the Falcons, but Atlanta is 5-8 SU under Mike Smith on the road. In those 13 games, the Falcons were a road favorite only once, that coming at Oakland in a 24-0 shutout of the Raiders.
Carolina started the season slow, dropping its first three games. The Panthers are 3-2 the last five games, even though two of those victories came against the Bucs and Redskins. Until Atlanta proves they can win on the road, it's tough to back them, especially as road 'chalk.'
Final score: Panthers 24, Falcons 20
2) Buccaneers (+9 ½) at Dolphins - 1:00 PM EST
The battle of the Sunshine State takes place at Landshark Stadium, as Tampa Bay goes for its second straight win following an 0-7 start. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are tied for last place in the AFC East at 3-5 after losing at New England.
Miami competed with Indianapolis, New Orleans, and New England, but the fact is the Dolphins shouldn't be laying this many points to anybody. Last season, the Fins went 0-4 ATS when laying at least 5 ½ points, while winning those four games by a combined 13 points.
Final score: Dolphins 17, Bucs 10
3) Bengals (+7 ½) at Steelers - 1:00 PM EST
Cincinnati has shocked many with its 6-2 start. Or maybe, it's the Bengals 4-0 divisional record, including a season sweep of the Ravens. Now, Marvin Lewis' team has an opportunity to take two from the Steelers, and really set themselves up nicely inside the AFC North.
The Steelers sit at 6-2, after knocking off the Broncos on Monday Night, 24-10. Pittsburgh is 3-3 the last six meetings with Cincinnati at Heinz Field, as the Steelers have won the previous two home matchups.
The Bengals are a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS as an underdog this season, and 4-1 ATS the last five games against division foes. Cincinnati will fall short, but the Bengals stay within the number.
Final score: Steelers 23, Bengals 19
4) Packers (+2 ½) vs. Cowboys - 4:15 PM EST
Dallas is rolling along at 6-2 after knocking off the Eagles in Philadelphia last Sunday night. The Packers, meanwhile, are trying to shake off an embarrassing loss at previously winless Tampa Bay, 38-28.
The Cowboys are 2-4 ATS the last six as a road favorite, including a 1-2 ATS mark this season. The Packers need to sure up their defense after allowing 38 points in each of the last two losses. Green Bay is 5-2 ATS the last seven as an underdog, despite being listed as a 'dog just once this season.
Final score: Packers 27, Cowboys 24
5) Patriots (+2 ½) at Colts - 8:30 PM EST
In the matchup of the night, New England tries to knock Indianapolis from the ranks of the unbeaten at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Colts found a way to sneak by the Niners and Texans the last two weeks, but didn't cover in either contest. The Pats improved to 6-2 with a ten-point victory over the Dolphins, the fifth win in six games for New England.
The Colts have won four of the last five meetings with the Pats, including an 18-15 victory last season at home. Indianapolis has picked up plenty of large wins, at least margin-wise. However, the best team the Colts have played so far is the 5-3 Cardinals back in Week 3.
On the flip side, the Pats have played their share of cupcakes, but do own victories over the Falcons and Ravens, while losing in overtime at Denver. The Colts are thin in the secondary as Marlin Jackson and Bob Sanders are both out for the season with injuries.
Final score: Patriots 21, Colts 17
You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at rogers@vegasinsider.com
