Week 10 of the NFL presents us with only three interconference matchups and six divisional showdowns. This week, we'll take a look at five contests that provide plenty of solid trends that can be used in your handicapping as we get closer to Sunday.
Jaguars at Jets (-7, 40) - 1:00 PM EST
Both these AFC teams are on the outside looking in the AFC Wild Card race at 4-4. Jacksonville is coming off a 24-21 victory over Kansas City, even though the Jags held a 24-6 lead in the fourth quarter. The Jets, meanwhile, are fresh off the bye after losing to the Dolphins two weeks ago.
The Jets are 5-3 ATS off a division loss since 2006, but have been favored only once, coming last month in an overtime defeat to the Bills. The extra week of prep has benefited the Jets in the past, with New York compiling a perfect 7-0 ATS following the bye the last seven seasons. The Jets have cashed recently against teams from the AFC South, going 7-1 ATS the last eight, including a pair of victories over the Texans and Titans.
The Jags were known as a solid road underdog earlier in the Jack Del Rio regime, but are only 2-2 ATS in that spot this season. Jacksonville owns a money-burning 3-9 ATS mark on the road off a home win since the end of 2005.
Lions at Vikings (-17, 47) - 1:00 PM EST
The haves against the have-nothings meet up in Minneapolis on Sunday, as the 7-1 Vikings entertain the 1-7 Lions. Minnesota rested this past week after their huge win at Lambeau Field over Green Bay two weeks ago. Detroit, meanwhile, has dropped 30 of its past 32 games, including a 32-20 defeat at Seattle last week.
The Lions were money-in-the-bank last season as double-digit 'dogs, covering seven of eight. The story has changed this season, as Detroit is 1-4 ATS when receiving at least ten points (which doesn't include a loss as a 9 ½ point 'dog at Chicago).
The Vikings, like the Jets, have been solid off the bye, going 6-1 ATS following their off week the last seven seasons. Minnesota does have some negative things trending towards them this week, including an 0-3 ATS mark under Brad Childress as a double-digit home favorite. Also, the Vikes are 1-4 ATS the last five as home 'chalk,' and 4-7 ATS the previous 11 contests coming off a division win.
Bills at Titans (-6 ½, 40) - 1:00 PM EST
This isn't exactly the "Music City Miracle," as Buffalo and Tennessee have matched up just three times in the regular season since 2000. The Titans are slowly heating up, capturing back-to-back victories over the Jaguars and Niners. The Bills are languishing at 3-5 inside the AFC East, coming off an embarrassing home loss to the Texans prior to the bye week.
Many teams this week are good plays off the bye, and that includes the Bills. Buffalo has covered each of its last four after their off week, including all three in the Dick Jauron era. The Bills are a profitable 5-1 ATS the last six as a road underdog, including a 3-1 ATS mark this season.
The Titans own a solid mark in a situation that applies this week. Tennessee is 15-2 ATS at home off a SU win playing a non-division opponent coming off an ATS loss. However, the Titans are only 5-6 ATS the last three seasons off a road win.
Seahawks at Cardinals (-9, 47) - 4:15 PM EST
Arizona has been a topsy-turvy team this season, going a perfect 4-0 on the road and just 1-3 at home. Seattle owns nearly an opposite mark, compiling a 3-2 home record and a winless ledger on the road.
The Cardinals were blown out by the Panthers two weeks ago at home as substantial favorites, which isn't the best role to back Arizona. The Cards are just 3-7 ATS the last ten as a home favorite of 6 ½ or more, while going 2-6 ATS at home off a road win. Arizona owns a horrible 2-13 ATS mark against division foes when coming off a SU underdog win against a team that owns a record of .500 or below.
The Seahawks are obviously a different team when they leave the Pacific Northwest, going 1-5 ATS the last six away from Qwest Field. In Jim Mora's coaching career, his teams are 2-10 ATS as an underdog off a SU victory.
Eagles at Chargers (-2 ½, 47) - 4:15 PM EST
A pair of 5-3 teams meet up in Southern California as both teams are coming off intense games against NFC East opponents. The Chargers rallied past the Giants at the Meadowlands, 21-20, to get themselves back in the AFC West race. The Eagles were knocked down by the Cowboys at home, as Philadelphia sits one game out of first place in the division.
The Chargers haven't been strong off a SU 'dog win over the years, compiling a 2-5 ATS mark. However, in Norv Turner's coaching career, his teams are 8-0 ATS as a home favorite off back-to-back wins against an opponent off a SU loss.
The Eagles are pretty solid when coming off a defeat, putting together a 5-1 ATS mark the last six on the road off a home loss. Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS since last season after a SU loss, including a 2-0 ATS record this season.
You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at rogers@vegasinsider.com
