Editor's note: Judd Hall is back with more expert selections on this week's NFL action, including the Packers-Cowboys. Don't miss out on his winning plays. Click to win!
I’m sure there are more than a few of you fine folks out there that are waiting to watch the Patriots and Colts on Sunday Night Football. But there is plenty of action to whet your appetite on the gridiron. There are two late games in specific that can potentially alter the playoff chase. Let’s take a look.
Eagles at Chargers – 4:15 p.m. EST, FOX
Before last Sunday’s game with the Cowboys, Philadelphia (5-3 straight up, against the spread) was getting a lot of respect from the public. After losing 20-16 to Dallas as three-point home favorites, however, has made a lot of people wonder if the Eagles are for real.
The thing people should be asking is if the Eagles will remember how to run the ball. Philly gained just 89 yards on the ground last week against the ‘Boys. This is a unit that averages 111.3 rushing yards per game this season. That ineffective ground game played a direct role in the fact that Philadelphia converted just four of its 12 third-downs last week.
To be fair to Philly, they most likely would have had better luck at keeping drives alive with Brian Westbrook in the backfield. Westbrook has sat out the last two games due to a concussion. Current reports state that he practiced on Friday afternoon and will be in the lineup.
Will Westbrook’s availability play a factor in the line for this game? Most betting shops have installed the Chargers as 1 ½-point home favorites against Philly with a total of 47. “Yes, right now his status is listed as questionable. If he indeed plays, you can count on the odds changing to a pick ‘em,” says betED’s Randy Scott.
That line is a lot closer than what most people expected in part to how San Diego (5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS) finished its game in the Meadowlands. The Chargers appeared to be dead to rights when Philip Rivers was picked off deep in their own territory by New York while down 17-14 with just over three minutes to go. The Giants were only able to get three-points on that pick, leaving the door wide open for the Bolts. Rivers took advantage of a soft New York defense by completing six of eight passes, culminating in an 18-yard touchdown strike to Vincent Jackson to win 21-20.
The Chargers enter the second half of their season with a three-game winning streak, but there are some things to consider. First of all, San Diego is just 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS at Qualcomm Stadium this year. Philadelphia is 2-1 SU and ATS on the road this season.
The home team has had some great success in the last seven meetings, as evidenced by going to 6-1 SU but just 3-3-1 ATS. The ‘under’ is 5-2 during that time.
A fun little trend to know about is the Eagles are 3-4 SU and 5-2 ATS when playing as a road team coming off of a loss to an NFC East opponent since 2000.
Cowboys at Packers – 4:15 p.m. EST, FOX
Things are going pretty well in Dallas (6-2 SU, ATS) right now. The Cowboys have won four straight matches, covering in three of them. Their most recent triumph came against Philly last week in a 20-16 decision. Now all of the ‘Boys are sitting alone at the top of the NFC East.
A big part of the Cowboys’ success has been Tony Romo. The Dallas signal caller completed 21 of his 34 passes for 307 yards and a touchdown against the Eagles last week. Over his last four starts, Romo has connected on 62.4 percent of his passes for 1,225 yards and has a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 9:1.
As good as Dallas’ offense has been, its defense has showed that it can help keep the team in games. The Cowboys’ stopping unit is allowing just 19.0 points per game this season to rank seventh in the NFL. That’s a surprising stat considering this team is allowing the opposition to score on 58.8 percent of their trips to the red zone; only six other clubs have given up more red zone scores that the Cowboys.
Luckily for the ‘Boys they’re facing a team that is doing its best John Denver impression with Green Bay (4-4 SU, ATS). It has been a rough November for the Packers as they’ve lost both games, both SU and ATS. You can’t blame Aaron Rodgers for the woes. The Cal product has completed 23 of his last 76 passes for 553 yards and five touchdowns. Unfortunately his offensive line has surrendered 12 sacks in the past two weeks. That won’t cut it against a defense like Dallas, which has 20 sacks on the season.
Most sportsbooks have installed the Cowboys as three-point road favorites with a total of 48. That line might seem a little small to some, but betED’s Randy Scott explains that the Pack have a special advantage. “The Packers always get more respect playing in Lambeau than most teams playing at home. And they are definitely having trouble protecting their QB. But this line represents a better performance from the Packers at home, it's up to the bettors to believe it or not. This line is already taking heavy action on the favorite. If it stays that way, then it will move up.”
Green Bay may not be all that great a wager on the frozen tundra right now since they’re 2-2 SU and ATS. Plus, Dallas is 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS in its four road tests of 2009.
This series has been extremely one-side over the years as the Cowboys are 8-2 SU and ATS since 1994. Bettors have been able to expect big scores out of these two clubs when they meet as the ‘over’ is 8-2 during that stretch.
I mentioned earlier that the Packers have lost both of their games this month SU and ATS. Well, when they have suffered back-to-back ATS setbacks, they are 3-5 SU and 5-2-1 ATS.
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com
