Following several intriguing matchups on the Sunday card of Week 10 in the NFL, the schedule-makers provide for us on a silver platter…the Cleveland Browns on Monday Night Football. The Browns play the team that left Cleveland prior to the 1995 season, the Ravens in Northern Ohio on Monday. Baltimore is in desperate need of a victory, sitting at 4-4, while Cleveland is just desperate to get in the end zone.
The Ravens started the season with plenty of promise, as John Harbaugh's team won three straight games out of the gate. The offense was clicking behind second-year quarterback Joe Flacco, averaging 34 ppg in victories over the Chiefs, Chargers, and Browns. Baltimore hit a bump in the road the next three games, falling at New England, at home to Cincinnati, then at Minnesota.
The losses to the Bengals and Vikings were huge heartbreakers, as Cincinnati scored the go-ahead touchdown with under 30 seconds remaining. The Bengals won outright as nine-point road underdogs, 17-14. Baltimore rallied from a 17-point fourth quarter deficit at Minnesota the following week to take a late 31-30 lead, before the Vikings drove down for the game-winning field goal. The Ravens, though, did cover as three-point road 'dogs, 33-31.
Baltimore rebounded nicely after its bye week to pound previously unbeaten Denver, 30-7. The Broncos began the season at 6-0, but the Ravens shut down Denver's offense with a 24-7 second-half surge, capped off by a late Ray Rice touchdown run. The Ravens could not capitalize off the Broncos' victory, as Baltimore was tripped up by Cincinnati again, this time 17-7 at Paul Brown Stadium.
The Browns have been an utter disaster all season, and the number one reason why is still hard to figure out. It probably starts at the top with head coach Eric Mangini, who led the Jets to an 8-3 record last season before a late-season meltdown resulted in a 9-7 finish and no trip to the postseason. Mangini lost his job, and the Browns scooped him up to replace Romeo Crennel. Mangini walked into a quarterback controversy after the team was expected to give third-year quarterback Brady Quinn the starting nod over Derek Anderson.
Quinn got the job to start the season, but did very little to impress, throwing just one touchdown and three interceptions in three losses. If it is any consolation, the former Notre Dame star faced three tough defenses in that span (Minnesota, Denver, and Baltimore), but Cleveland tallied only 29 points those games. Quinn got the hook in the earlier loss to the Ravens in favor of Anderson, who didn't fare much better. The lone Browns' win came on Anderson's watch in Week 5, an ugly 6-3 triumph at Buffalo.
Amazingly, the Browns covered three straight games in which Anderson started - an overtime loss to the Bengals, the field-goal fest at Buffalo, and a road defeat at Pittsburgh. The last two games may have been the last straw for the former Pro Bowl QB, as Anderson led the Browns to nine points combined in losses to the Packers and Bears.
Quinn is back under center Monday night, trying to reinvigorate an offense with no substantial big-play receivers since the trade of Braylon Edwards to the Jets in October. The Browns' offense has found the end zone a mind-numbing four times this season, which is last in the league.
This series has been dominated by the Ravens recently, as Baltimore has won the last three meetings. The Ravens took care of the Browns at home in Week 3 by a 34-3 count, and swept the season series in 2008. Prior to that, Cleveland covered five straight meetings from the end of the 2005 season to 2007.
The Browns are no stranger to receiving plenty of points on Monday Night Football, shocking the Giants last season as nine-point home underdogs, 35-14 in Week 6 of 2008.
The 'over' trend on Monday Night Football hit the skids last week in Denver, as the Steelers and Broncos finished 'under' the total. The 'over' is now 8-2 on the season in Monday action, and up to 24-5-1 since the beginning of 2008.
VI capper Bruce Marshall feels that in spite of getting plenty of points to work with, it's tough to back the home team, "Although Baltimore has hit some bumps in the road, it is too hard to make a case for Cleveland. Perhaps Quinn gives the Browns a better chance than Anderson, but the team and organization is dysfunctional and apparently on the cusp of mutiny against the overmatched Eric Mangini. Indeed, this now might qualify as the most disorganized setup in the NFL, with GM George Kokinis recently hustled (literally) out of the organization and the Lerners realizing what a mistake was made with the Mangini hire."
Baltimore is currently on the outside of the AFC playoff picture at 4-4, but according to Marshall, this may be exactly what cures the Ravens' ills, "The Browns have shown up at just the right time on the Ravens' schedule, and we doubt Quinn fares much better than in the first meeting, when he was first pulled for Anderson. Remember that the Brownies have only scored an offensive TD in 4 of their 8 games, and five times have been held under 10 points."
Randy Scott, the sportsbook manager at BetED.com says that the long number is warranted, despite it being seldom in a primetime spot. "This is a rare Monday Night double-digit home underdog line. Baltimore has been very unlucky in three of their four losses this season. There is a big bounce-back opportunity that is presented in this line after the Ravens lost handily last week to Cincinnati," Scott comments.
As far as which way the public is going, Scott says the Ravens are the choice of the people so far, "The public is one-sided so far betting Baltimore over 95%. The biggest bet is teasing Baltimore to -5 or lower. Despite the lopsided action and the expectation the action will continue one way, we don't expect the line to move up much, not higher that -11.5. The total of 40 points hasn't been touched yet, we expect to see that number come down a bit."
Currently, the Ravens are listed as 10 ½ point road favorites in most spots, with the number creeping up to 11 at several outfits. The total is setting steady at 40, but if you hustle up, you can still grab it at 39 ½.
You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at rogers@vegasinsider.com
