It took ten weeks, but I finally racked up a perfect 5-0 in the NFL Handicapping Challenge. It helped that three of the winners won outright as underdogs, while the Bucs and Patriots each had leads in the final two minutes before losing, but still covered. Good or bad, we still have to move onto Week 11, as the 'dog theme will prevail again this week in the Challenge.
1) Bills (+8 ½) at Jaguars - 1:00 PM EST
Dick Jauron was let go on Tuesday after a 3-6 start, as the Bills head to North Florida to battle the Jags. Jauron compiled a 24-33 record in 3 ½ seasons at the Buffalo helm, but could never get the Bills into the postseason, much less over .500. Jacksonville, meanwhile, has quietly put together a 5-4 record, topped off by a last-second field goal in a win over the Jets this past Sunday.
The Jags have been a horrible home favorite since the start of 2008, compiling a 0-8 ATS mark, including an 0-3 ATS ledger this season. The Bills came into Jacksonville last September and won outright as a four-point 'dog, 20-16.
The Bills are 3-1 ATS this season as road underdogs of at least 6 ½ points, and 7-1 ATS in this situation since November 2007. Despite the firing of Jauron, the Jags have proven they can't cover big numbers.
Final score: Jaguars 17, Bills 10
2) Niners (+6 ½) at Packers - 1:00 PM EST
I sided with Green Bay last week as a home 'dog against Dallas, but I'm going against Mike McCarthy's squad this Sunday. San Francisco ended a four-game skid by sneaking past Chicago, 10-6 last Thursday. The Niners are 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season, including covers at Arizona, Minnesota, and Indianapolis.
The Packers have bulked up their record with wins over the Browns, Lions, and Rams. Green Bay's two other substantial victories have come against Chicago and Dallas at home. Six times in McCarthy's tenure the Packers have played consecutive home games. Only once has Green Bay covered both games, and that came in 2007 against Minnesota and Carolina.
San Francisco is a team I don't feel comfortable backing as a favorite, but I believe they have good value as an underdog.
Final score: Packers 20, Niners 16
3) Seahawks (+10 ½) at Vikings - 1:00 PM EST
Minnesota is playing the middle of three straight home games, as the Vikings entertain the Seahawks. Seattle is coming off a 31-20 loss at Arizona last week, as the Seahawks gave away a touchdown lead at the half.
Looking closer at what the Vikings have done at home, Minnesota is 1-2-1 ATS at the Metrodome, with two victories coming in the final minutes against San Francisco and Baltimore. The Vikings are 2-8 ATS the last ten games coming off a home win.
The Seahawks are 0-4 ATS on the road this season, but Seattle is 11-3 ATS the last 14 as road 'dogs off a double-digit SU/ATS loss. This is a division sandwich spot for Minnesota, coming off the 17-point win over Detroit, then the Vikings host the Bears next week.
Final score: Vikings 23, Seahawks 14
4) Raiders (+9 ½) vs. Bengals - 4:15 PM EST
Are you out of your mind? That is the question I'm sure readers are posing when they see this pick. Cincinnati is coming off one of the biggest wins in franchise history, pulling off the season sweep of Pittsburgh, 18-12. The Bengals are now 7-2, owning tiebreakers over the Steelers and Ravens inside the AFC North. Cincinnati needs to travel west to take on lowly Oakland. What could possibly go wrong?
Need I remind everyone what happened to Philadelphia when the Eagles went to the Black Hole? The Eagles were held out of the end zone in a 13-9 loss to the Raiders in Week 6. Cincinnati has been a great underdog (6-0 SU/ATS), but not as profitable as a favorite (0-3 ATS, 1-2 SU). The Raiders are 5-2 ATS the last seven home games when receiving at least nine points.
Final score: Bengals 20, Raiders 17
5) Chargers (-2 ½) at Broncos - 4:15 PM EST
Denver has free-fallen over the last few weeks, dropping three straight after a 6-0 start. The last time the Broncos won a game was against the Chargers on Monday Night back in Week 6. Now, San Diego looks for revenge, as the Bolts go for their fifth straight victory.
During this four-game winning streak, the Chargers picked up a pair of wins over cupcakes like Kansas City and Oakland. But, the Bolts have notched two significant victories the last two weeks against the Giants and Eagles. The Chargers are 6-2 ATS since 2002 when revenging a division loss.
The Broncos will likely be without Kyle Orton this week, as he suffered an ankle injury at Washington. Now, Denver is stuck with Chris Simms under center, as the former Texas QB didn't lead the Broncos to a single point in Sunday's loss to the Redskins.
Final score: Chargers 27, Broncos 17
You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at rogers@vegasinsider.com
