The scoreboard operator was working hard last week, as the ‘over’ prevailed with a 9-6 record. Five the six that went ‘under’ the number also cashed first-half ‘under’ tickets for players too. The lone exception was the Kansas City-Oakland matchup out West, which saw the Chiefs own a 13-10 lead at the break. Like clockwork, the Raiders were blanked in the final 30 minutes, and lost 16-10. For the second straight week and third time this season, the Monday Night Football showdown went ‘under’ the number. On the year, the ‘over’ stands at 76-68-2 (53%).

Thursday Night Trend

The Dolphins knocked off the Panthers 24-17 on Thursday and the combined 41 points fell 'under' the closing number of 42 points. Including the season opener between the Steelers and Titans, the 'under' has now gone 3-0 on Thursday this season. The short week usually has teams focusing on defense first, and it's showed so far. The average score in the three games has totaled an average of 26.6 points.

Next week is Thanksgiving, which has three games on the docket:

Green Bay at Detroit
Oakland at Dallas
N.Y. Giants at Denver

On paper, most would probably agree that all three of these contests wouldn't be classified as shootouts.

Fifty-Plus

The Saints and Buccaneers clash at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday and the oddsmakers opened the total at 51. The line seems fair, considering New Orleans is averaging a league-best 36.8 PPG, and its defense has added seven scores through nine games as well. Plus, the Saints face a Tampa defense that is ranked second worst in scoring (28.4 PPG).

After starting the year strong defensively, the Saints have surrendered 27, 34, 27, 20 and 23 points in the last five games. Tampa Bay isn't an offensive juggernaut by any means but it has posted 38 and 23 in the last two weeks, and Raheem Morris' defense is very opportunistic as well.

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Even though the statistics on paper can justify an 'over' play, gamblers should be weary of the 50-spot the books posted. So far this year, there have been seven games that featured totals of 50 points or more and the 'under' has gone 5-2 (71%) in those contests. New Orleans has been featured in four of those games and the totals went 2-2.

We're still a week away, but the Saints host the Patriots in Week 12 on MNF and the total is expected to be the highest of the year. "That total should come out between 51 and 53 and we're expecting heavy 'over' betting that could push it up as high as 54 or 55," said betED.com Sportsbook Manager Randy Scott.

Perfect at Home

As the second-half of the regular season continues, total players can start to identify trends for certain clubs on either the road or at home. After 10 weeks, three teams have seen all of their games go 'under' or 'over' at home.

Jacksonville has watched the 'over' go 4-0 at home this year. This Sunday, Buffalo visits the Sunshine State with a new coach, Perry Fewell. The Bills will start Ryan Fitzpatrick (240 yards, 2 INTs) behind center and he's been horrible this year. The 'under' has gone 2-0 in both of his starts. Looking the four home games for the Jaguars, the first two were clear-cut 'over' tickets against Arizona (17-31) and Tennessee (37-17) but the last two against the Rams (23-20) and Chiefs (24-21) were sweat shops. The Bills have seen the 'under' go 3-2 on the road. The number (43) seems a little high, considering these two have played the last three years and the totals were 35.5, 37 and 37.

It's easy to sit here and knock St. Louis for its 0-4 record at home this year but you have to look at its schedule. Could anybody else have done better against the Packers (17-36), Vikings (10-38), Colts (6-42) and Saints (23-28)? The results have produced an 'over' record of 4-0 and it could be 5-0 when Arizona comes to town on Sunday. The Cardinals have played better on the road (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS) this year and the recent meetings are scary. Arizona has put up 34, 34, 48, 34 and 34 in the last five versus the Rams. The 'over' has only gone 3-2 during this stretch because St. Louis has had trouble matching points. Will the trend continue?

The Denver Broncos have surrendered 30, 28 and 27 points in their last three games but the defense is still only giving up 16.8 PPG on the season, which is ranked fourth in the NFL. At home, the number dips slightly to 15.3 PPG and could be lower if they didn't give up 21 points to Pittsburgh in a MNF loss on Nov. 9. We note this game because the Steelers were the first team all year to score on the Broncos at home in the second-half. Despite Pitt's outburst, the 'under' still cashed. On the year, the 'under' is now 4-0 from Invesco Field at Mile High. This week, some books put up a tentative number of 42 against the Chargers but that could dip because Denver QB Kyle Orton might not suit up. Six of the last seven in this series has gone 'over' the total, including their first meeting this season on Oct. 19, which saw three special teams touchdowns help the cause.

MNF Shootout in Houston?

The Texans and Titans have been known to light up the scoreboard whenever they tangle and their first go 'round on Sept. 20 this season proved that. Houston captured a 34-31 decision over Tennessee and the game was 'over' by halftime (24-24). Six of the last seven in this series has gone 'over' the number and it appears the oddsmakers have adjusted accordingly for this week (48).

Houston was known as a solid 'over' play last year but this season has been different. The Texans have watched the 'under' go 6-3 and surprisingly the team has only put more than 30 points on one occasion, the aforementioned win over the Titans.

The Titans' offense struggled during their 0-6 start, yet the team has posted 30, 34 and 41 in three games with Vince Young behind center. The gun slinger has been anything but one, yet he's been smart (1 INT) with the football and elusive (1 Sack) during this run. Chris Johnson deserves all the credit for Tennessee's explosion. The running back has totaled 631 yards and 6 TDs over the last three.

The 'under' has cashed in two straight under the MNF lights, but the 'over' is still 8-3 on the season.

Fearless Predictions:

Last week talked about how we’re getting close and unfortunately I couldn’t have been more wrong. The Best Bets fell to 9-9 (-90) on the season and we couldn’t even cash a teaser. That mark fell to 2-7 (-500) and is really making us believe that teasers are sucker bets or perhaps we just suck. Based on one-unit plays, we’re down $590 and the second-half of the season is dwindling. As always, press, pass or fade. Good Luck!

Best Over: Jets-Patriots 45

Best Under: Jaguars-Bills 42.5

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over Jets-Patriots 36
Under Jaguars-Bills 49.5
Under Saints-Buccaneers 60

Chris David can be reached at cdavid@vegasinsider.com