Week 11 of the NFL season closes out with a tough test for bettors as Tennessee (3-6 straight up, 4-5 against the spread) and Houston (5-4 SU, ATS) gear up for ESPN’s Monday Night Football at 8:35 p.m. EST. Gamblers must decide whether to put their money down on a team that has won three straight games like the Titans or take a chance on a team that is coming off of a tough loss and doesn’t have all their weapons like the Texans.
If we’re going on what the sportsbooks think, then the Texans are your play as they’re listed as 4 ½-point home favorites with a total of 48. Sportsbook.com shows that 58 percent of the money they are seeing has bettors taking the Titans to cover the spread. Meanwhile, a mindboggling 97 percent of the action on the money line is on Tennessee to win outright for a plus-180 return (risk $100 to win $180).
Bodog’s sportsbook manager, Richard Gardner, helps explain why the line is set as it is. “Obviously when creating a number on a game we take into consideration how a team is currently playing. That means we’re taking into account public perception, but only for a half-point to one-point as the line already reflects that a team is hot at the moment.”
So are the Titans really worth that kind of action?
After the first six games of the season, Tennessee would have been avoided like Amy Winehouse at a nudist colony. The Titans opened the year with six straight losses with Kerry Collins under center, which is shocking since they were 13-3 the season before.
Titans head coach Jeff Fisher was pushed into starting Vince Young at quarterback by owner Bud Adams during the bye week. Tennessee has jumped out to three straight wins with Young running the offense on the field. The former Longhorn has completed 71 percent of his passes for 507 yards and two touchdowns during this win streak.
Tennessee has also been fairly effective at moving the chains on third down, converting 52 percent of those opportunities since the open date. Young, however, can’t lay claim to those conversions with his arm as he’s completed 10 of his 19 passes on third down. That’s why they’ve been relying on Chris Johnson to keep the offense going.
Johnson has been a force to be reckoned with over the last three games. He’s carried the ball 75 times for 495 rushing yards and six touchdowns during this stretch.
Despite the strong efforts of Johnson and Young, VegasInsider.com’s expert handicapper Bruce Marshall believes the winning starts on the other side of the ball. “More than Young, the fact the Titans have been getting healthier on defense has been a big boost. Remember, Tennessee was reduced to a pair of rookie CBs in October, including that disaster at New England, but has been getting healthier in the secondary; over the last two weeks, Cortland Finnegan, Vincent Fuller, and Rod Hood all have recorded interceptions TDs.”
“Young has not hurt the team and been an upgrade from this year's version of Kerry Collins, but Johnson's long-distance threat is really what makes the offense tick.” Marshall continues, “The bye week after the NE loss came at a good time, too; psychologically, the Titans were more easily able to put that 0-6 start behind them and start anew after the bye week. Credit also goes to Jeff Fisher for that, and keeping the troops together after that disastrous start.”
Tennessee’s defense will get a chance to show what they can do against the Texans. Houston went into its last meeting against the Colts knowing they were going to be without the talented tight end Owen Daniels. And while they held their own, the Texans still wound up losing to Indy as 7 ½-point road pups, 20-17.
Since Daniels is out for the year, Andre Johnson will be expected to pick up more of the catches now. Johnson had collected 10 receptions for 103 yards, but no scores – it’s his fourth straight game without a touchdown.
Marshall believes that the Texans must get their stopping unit in gear to be successful on the attack. “More than anything, Houston's improved play has been a result of its defense tightening the screws. No one has run effectively vs. this defense in over a month, a significant change from the first few weeks of the season. Check out the recent trend of ‘unders’ in its games; Schaub is able to run a bit more conservative offensive attack and slow down the pace of the game because his defense hasn't been putting him in tough holes the past several games (although they did have to rally from 3-13 at halftime vs. the Colts),” He concludes, “Notice in the Indy game how Peyton Manning basically abandoned the run, especially in the first half when throwing 40 mostly short passes. Opponents are starting to alter their gameplans based upon the Texas' new-found ability to stop the run, which is the real key to this team making a playoff push.”
Houston has been average at best when playing at Reliant Stadium, going 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS at home. The Titans are just 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS so far on games outside of Nashville.
The home team has often walked away with the win in this game as evidenced by a 6-4 SU mark, but just 5-5 ATS. The ‘over’ has been the top play in this series as it has gone 8-2 in those 10 head-to-head meetings.
If you have been following season long trends, then you’re well aware that the ‘over’ has gone 8-3 this season. However, the ‘under’ is on a two-game streak. The road team is 6-5 SU on Monday night this season, with the visitors going 8-3 ATS for our purposes.
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com
