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Eagles at Bears
November 22, 2009
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
T he NFC wild-card hunt is becoming more interesting each week. Our combatants for Sunday night – Chicago and Philadelphia – are two of six clubs vying for a pair of playoff spots that are separated by just one game.
The Eagles, Giants, Falcons and Packers each own 5-4 ledgers, while the Bears and 49ers are sitting at 4-5 going into Week 11. Carolina isn’t dead yet with a 4-6 mark, although its home loss to Miami on Thursday was costly.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Philadelphia (5-4 straight up, 5-4 against the spread) as a three-point favorite with a total of 45. As of Saturday afternoon, most spots still had the Eagles at three but with a double-juice price (minus-120). Therefore, gamblers backing the Bears plus three were doing so at even-money (risking $100 to win $100).
Chicago (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS) is plus-140 on the money line (risk $100 to win $140).
Andy Reid’s team has suddenly dropped back-to-back games and three of its last four, including last week’s 31-23 loss at San Diego as a one-point underdog. Donovan McNabb completed 35-of-55 passes for 450 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.
But the Eagles had no running game whatsoever, as evidenced by a 56/13 pass-to-run ratio on 69 offensive snaps. Even worse, Brian Westbrook suffered his second concussion in less than a month, leaving his status for the rest of the season in limbo. Westrook is definitely “out” this week.
Jason Avant had eight receptions for 156 yards against the Chargers. Meanwhile, DeSean Jackson hauled in eight catches for 91 yards, while rookie WR Jeremy Maclin had six receptions for 76 yards and one TD.
The Bears come into this spot with a couple of extra days’ rest after losing 10-6 at San Francisco last Thursday. The 49ers took the cash as 3 ½-point home ‘chalk.’
Jay Cutler had an abysmal performance, throwing five interceptions to bring his touchdown-interception ratio for the season to a mediocre 14/17. The Vandy product leads the NFL in interceptions and two of his picks at San Francisco came deep in the red zone.
Lovie Smith’s team has played well at home this year, compiling a 3-1 record both SU and ATS. However, Arizona came to Soldier Field two weeks ago and captured a 41-21 win as a one-point road underdog. Regardless of the venue, Chicago has lost four of its last five games after getting out to a 3-1 start.
Philadelphia is 2-2 both SU and ATS on the road this year. The Eagles have lost both road assignments out West to San Diego and Oakland, but they won and covered at Washington (27-17) and at Carolina (38-10).
For the season, McNabb has connected on 60.1 percent of his passes for 1,685 yards with a 12/4 TD-INT ratio. TE Brent Celek has become McNabb’s favorite target, hauling in 46 catches for 533 yards and five TDs. WR DeSean Jackson is a threat to go the distance on any given touch, bringing down 34 receptions for 621 yards and four TDs for an 18.3 yard-per-catch average. Jackson also has seven rushes for 115 yards and one TD, in addition to an 85-yard punt return for a score.
Maclin is also enjoying a stellar rookie year. The first-round pick from out of Missouri has 31 catches for 413 yards and four TDs. With Westbrook out, another rookie first-round pick, LeSean McCoy, will now handle the bulk of the rushing load. McCoy has a team-high 353 rushing yards and two TDs with a 4.1 YPC average.
Chicago placed RB Garrett Wolfe on injured reserve this week with a kidney injury. Wolfe, a third-down back, was second on the team in rushing yards with 120. Matt Forte is the club’s leading rusher with 482 yards and three TDs. However, his 3.4 YPC average is very pedestrian and the Bears have problems punching the ball in the end zone from the red zone all year. Part of that falls on Forte, who had a pair of red-zone fumbles in a loss at Atlanta and has been unable to return to the form he demonstrated as a rookie in 2008.
Devin Hester is no longer the special-teams dynamo he was a few years back, but he has developed into Cutler’s go-to target. Hester has a team-high 48 catches for 596 yards and three TDs. Earl Bennett, Cutler’s former teammate at Vandy, has 35 receptions for 454 yards but no TDs.
This is the third straight season in which these teams have met in the regular season. The Bears have won both previous encounters, including a 24-20 win last year as three-point home underdogs. In 2007. Chicago won a 19-16 decision at Philadelphia as a 5 ½-point road puppy.
The ‘over’ has been a major money maker for the Eagles this year, going 7-2 overall and 3-1 in their road games. Meanwhile, the ‘under’ has gone 5-4 overall for the Bears, 2-2 in their home outings.
The Bears are 6-5 ATS as home ‘dogs during Smith’s six-year tenure. They have only been home ‘dogs once this year, beating Pittsburgh 17-14 as three-point puppies. Meanwhile, the Eagles are 2-1 ATS as road favorites in 2009. Dating back to 2005, though, they are just 10-11 ATS as road ‘chalk.’
NBC will have the telecast at 8:20 p.m. Eastern.
Brian Edwards can be reached at briane@vegasinsider.com.
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