Colts vs. Titans Week 10 Predictions, Odds, Preview

T&C's Apply, 21+, Only in CO

• November 11, 2020
• By Matt Blunt
• VegasInsider.com

The winner of Thursday Night Football matchup in Week 10 will be in the driver's seat for the AFC South crown this year, with a rematch coming against this rival again in two weeks. Both teams are coming off low-scoring affairs last week, but only the Titans were on the right side of their result.

There is far too much ground to realistically think the other two teams in this division will make any sort of threat, so the season could really come down to the next month for both teams.

Oddly enough, the fact that they both come in off the same total result is something we can hopefully use to our advantage this week, as this should be an entertaining game for in-game betting on the side.

Betting Resources

• Week 10 Matchup: AFC South
• Expert Picks: Vegas Insiders
• Venue: Nissan Stadium
• Location: Nashville, Tennessee
• Date: Thursday, Nov. 12, 2020
• Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX/NFL Network
• Bet Now: BetMGM | BetRivers | FanDuel | PointsBet | All

Live in Tennessee? Check out where you can place NFL wagers on Thursday Night Football.

Colts-Titans Betting Odds

Line Movements

Odds Subject to Change

Colts vs. Titans Video Picks

2020 Betting Stats

(Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under - O/U)

Indianapolis

• Overall: 5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS, 4-4 O/U
• Road: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 O/U
• Offense PPG: 26.0 (Rank 15)
• Defense PPG: 20.0 (Rank 3)
• Offense YPG: 360.5 (Rank 19)
• Defense YPG: 290.0 (Rank 1)

Tennessee

• Overall: 6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS, 5-2-1 O/U
• Home: 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 3-1-1 O/U
• Offense PPG: 29.0 (Rank 7)
• Defense PPG: 25.1 (Rank 16)
• Offense YPG: 384.6 (Rank 10)
• Defense YPG: 394.1 (Rank 25)

Derrick Henry and the Titans are listed as short favorites against the Colts on Thursday night. (AP)

Over vs. Under
Handicapping the Total

The fact that San Francisco scored that late TD with under 10 seconds left last Thursday to cash 'over' tickets that day was also a first this season. It was the first time in five tries that two TNF teams that were coming off the same total result (both went 'over' or 'under') and that they were able to duplicate the result.

Every other time the result was to flip it, and we've had the likes of Denver/NYJ and Cincinnati/Cleveland put on offensive shows after a rough offensive week, and a rescheduled KC/Buffalo game cash an 'under' ticket after both teams had allowed 40+ the week prior. Prevailing wisdom isn't always the best course of action, and expecting an 'over' between these two teams does make a lot of sense.

Tennessee's defense has still been awful for the better part of this season, and don't let a strong 3+ quarter performance against the Bears lull you to sleep too much. Most defenses seem to get right against the Bears.

The Colts can have a Bears-like performance from time to time, but I'd still like to see the Titans do it two weeks in a row on defense. The Titans three best performances defensively, in that they allowed less than 20 points, came in Week 1 after extensive prep time, against the Bills after extended rest and a very disjointed schedule for the Bills, and then against the Bears.

T&C's Apply, 21+, Only in CO

Then you've got the Colts, who confirmed that the only consistent thing about how the league determines what is and isn't a catch is the fact that they'll likely change their stance on those variables if Dez Bryant is in the building.

Defensively the Colts aren't bad, but Tennessee's still 6-2 SU with that rough defense on one end. Holding them down is far from an easy task, and every Colts road game this year against everyone but the Chicago Bears has gone 'over' the number (3-0 O/U).

The first meeting of the two in a rivalry because it can bring more of a gambling feel to it from a play-calling perspective. Coaches know they'll still have another chance at these guys, and they'll have a full game tape on where to make adjustments and where not to.

A short week without travel is a strong spot for the Titans defense to prove me wrong and show up for two weeks straight, but I'm not sure this early move down with the total isn't just another “prevailing wisdom” look trying to stay ahead of the market, and one that hasn't really worked for TNF.

I'm willing to go to the high side of this total to see if that 5-1 run on flipping the results gets back to form. I still believe I've got a very suspect Titans defense to help me along (or bail me out late) as well.

Head-to-Head History

• Dec. 1, 2019 - Tennessee 31 at Indianapolis 17, Titans -1, Over 41.5
• Sep. 15, 2019 - Indianapolis 19 at Tennessee 17, Colts +3, Under 43.5
• Dec. 30, 2018 - Indianapolis 33 at Tennessee 17, Colts -5.5, Over 42.5
• Nov. 18, 2018 - Indianapolis 38 vs. Tennessee 0, Colts 1, Under 50

Colts vs. Titans
Handicapping the Side

Figuring out who is the play on this side is something I'm not all that interested in doing. It is important to keep in mind though as you may be able to take more information from this game and apply it to the spread in the rematch in two weeks much better then trying to get it right now.

Cases can be made for both sides in this spot, and if you can find some spots in-game where plus-money on either side exists on the ML, going that route and calling it a night may be best for your brain as well.

There is the whole idea of having a team off a loss (Indy) against a team off a win (Tennessee) that I discussed here, favoring a pregame lean on taking the points with Indy, but you could just start with their plus-money ML line there and hope they get a lead at some point to where taking back something on the Titans makes sense.

But I'm not going to spend more time than that on this side really. Too close to call, and having a better idea of what's at stake for both sides in that return match is maybe where the brainpower should go.

Key Injuries

Indianapolis

• TE Mo Alie-Cox: Knee - Questionable
• WR T.Y. Hilton: Groin - Questionable
• WR Marcus Johnson: Knee - Questionable
• TE Jack Doyle: Concussion - Doubtful
• LB Matthew Adams: Personal - Doubtful

Tennessee

• WR A.J. Brown: Knee - Probable
• G Rodger Saffold III: Shoulder - Probable
• DE Jadeveon Clowney: Knee - Questionable
• CB Dane Cruikshank: Groin - Doubtful
• WR Adam Humphries: Concussion - Out
• P Brett Kern: Wrist - Out
• CB Tye Smith: Shoulder - Out

Colts vs. Titans - Predictions

• Score Prediction: Indianapolis 28 Tennessee 27
• Best Bet: Over 48.5

2020 Thursday Night Football (TNF) Betting Results

Betting Results

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS)

• Home-Away: 4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS
• Favorites-Underdogs: 4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS
• Over-Under: 4-4