Texans vs. Lions Week 12 Predictions, Odds, Preview

T&C's Apply, 21+, Only in CO

• November 25, 2020
• By Jonathan Willis
• VegasInsider.com

Texans vs. Lions - Predictions

• Score Prediction: Houston 28 Detroit 23
• Best Bet: Houston -3

There have been a lot of changes and things outside the norm during the 2020 NFL season, but we will keep at least a few traditions alive during Thanksgiving. Detroit will host the first game of a Thanksgiving Day tripleheader on Thursday, welcoming the Houston Texans to the Motor City.

The 4-6 Lions have not fared well on Thanksgiving recently, posting a 4-12 record since 2004, so they are home underdogs to the 3-7 Texans.

Betting Resources

• Week 12 Matchup: AFC vs. NFC
• Expert Picks: Vegas Insiders
• Venue: Ford Field
• Location: Detroit, Michigan
• Date: Thursday, Nov. 26, 2020
• Time: 12:30 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
• Bet Now: BetMGM | BetRivers | FanDuel | PointsBet | All |Bet Now in Michigan

The Lions look to bounce back following a shutout loss at Carolina last week. (AP)

Texans-Lions Betting Odds

Line Movements

Odds Subject to Change

Texans vs. Lions Video Picks

2020 Betting Stats

(Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under - O/U)

Houston

• Overall: 3-7 SU, 3-7 ATS, 5-5 O/U
• Road: 1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS, 4-1 O/U
• Offense PPG: 22.7 (Rank 22)
• Defense PPG: 27.2 (Rank 23)
• Offense YPG: 358.9 (Rank 17)
• Defense YPG: 411.7 (Rank 31)

Detroit

• Overall: 4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS, 6-4 O/U
• Home: 1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS, 4-0 O/U
• Offense PPG: 22.7 (Rank 22)
• Defense PPG: 28.7 (Rank 28)
• Offense YPG: 342.9 (Rank 25)
• Defense YPG: 397.4 (Rank 27)

All-Time Record on Thursday

• Houston 5-5
• Detroit 26-29 (25-28 on Thanksgiving)

How to Handicap Texans-Lions

The Lions are likely to miss the playoffs for the third straight season under Matt Patricia, and this is almost certain to be his last year in Detroit. They are 13-28-1 under his watch, and they will probably finish in last place in the NFC North for the third consecutive year.

Detroit is coming off its worst offensive showing of the season. The Lions were a three-point road favorite against Carolina last week, but they posted just 185 total yards of offense in a 20-0 loss to the Panthers. They are now 4-6 SU and 4-6 ATS on the season, and three of their four victories have come by a field goal or less.

Three of their last four games have gone 'over' the total.

T&C's Apply, 21+, Only in CO

It’s been a tough season for Houston. The Texans’ only victories came against the 1-9 Jacksonville Jaguars prior to last week, but Deshaun Watson is still playing great football. His play spurred Houston’s upset win over New England last week, giving the Texans consecutive covers for the first time all season.

Houston was 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS through the first half of the 2020 season. The Texans have bounced back with covers in their last two games, although they were fortunate to pick up the cover against Cleveland as Nick Chubb ran out of bounds at the one-yard line rather than give the Browns more of a cushion.

Betting Analysis - Detroit Lions

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• 2020: 4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS, 6-4 O/U

Matt Stafford is currently listed as questionable to play in this game. However, he is widely expected to start despite dealing with a torn ligament in his thumb. Stafford has said that the thumb didn’t bother him against Carolina last week, but he threw for under 200 yards for the first time all year and averaged just 5.4 YPA.

Nearly all of Detroit’s skill position players are questionable too. Top wideout Kenny Golladay hasn’t played in nearly a month due to a hip injury, and D’Andre Swift is still on the mend after missing last week’s game due to a concussion. Danny Amendola sat out last week with a hip issue as well, while T.J. Hockenson is dealing with a shoulder issue.

That will make this offense heavily reliant on Adrian Peterson and Marvin Jones Jr. Peterson currently leads Detroit with 389 yards (3.7 YPC), but he has carried the ball just 35 times for 104 yards over the last three games. Jones is the leading receiver with 37 receptions for 455 yards and five touchdowns.

Patricia was hired to turn around Detroit’s defense. The Lions were 10th in total defense in his first season, but they finished 31st in total defense and are currently 27th in the league. No. 3 overall pick Jeff Okudah has been underwhelming in his rookie season, and the pass defense has really struggled without Darius Slay.

Betting Analysis - Houston Texans

• 2020: 3-7 SU, 3-7 ATS, 5-5 O/U

Watson has been at his best this season. Although Houston is 3-7, this team might be winless without its superstar quarterback. He is performing like one of the top four signal callers in the league, so it’s impossible to put any of this team’s woes on his shoulders. Watson is completing 68.9 percent of his passes for 8.5 YPA with 20 touchdowns against just five interceptions.

For Houston to win this game, Watson might have to put the Texans on his shoulders just like he did last week against the Patriots. Leading rusher David Johnson is still on injured reserve, and Duke Johnson is averaging just 2.8 YPC. Watson was responsible for all but 19 of Houston’s yards against New England, so we might see something similar here.

Randall Cobb has been ruled out due to injury, and Kenny Stills is currently questionable. Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks are Houston’s top two receivers though, and they are both ready to go on Thursday. Fuller is averaging 5.1 YPC, while Cooks has had at least 60 receiving yards in five of his last six games.

The Texans have not been sharp on defense. Houston is 31st in the league in total defense, and the run defense ranks dead last, allowing 5.1 YPC and 159.3 YPG. J.J. Watt is fresh off his best performance of the year with four pass deflections last week.

Historically Speaking

Head-to-Head

Detroit beat Houston in the first meeting between these franchises back in 2004, but the Texans have emerged victorious the last three times they have met on the gridiron. Houston knocked off Detroit 34-31 on Thanksgiving in 2012 as Stafford’s 441-yard performance was in vain.

Notable Betting Trends

-- Houston is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 games as a favorite

-- The Texans are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games

-- Detroit is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games

Injuries

Houston Texans

• OT Laremy Tunsil: Illness - Probable
• G Senio Kelemete: Concussion - Questionable
• WR Kenny Stills: Quad - Out
• FB Cullen Gillaspia: Back - Out
• WR Randall Cobb: Toe - Out
• S Michael Thomas: Shoulder - Out

Detroit Lions

• RB D'Andre Swift: Concussion - Questionable
• CBAmani Oruwariye: Back - Questionable
• CB Mike Ford: Concussion - Doubtful
• DE Da'Shawn Hand: Groin - Out
• WR Danny Amendola: Hip - Out
• WR Kenny Golladay: Hip - Out
• CB Jeffrey Okudah: Shoulder - Out