Matchday 11 – Best Bets
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
World Cup: Matchday 11 Betting Preview
Sunday, June 24
Group G Table & Results
England vs. Panama (FS1, 8:00 a.m. ET)
Group G has not been helped by the order of matches, and England can guarantee qualification with a game to spare by beating Panama in Nizhny Novgorod.
Gareth Southgate’s men left it late against Tunisia, relying on a last minute Harry Kane winner to see of a stubborn, but unambitious Tunisia side.
They will be in for a similar test here against a Panama side who will stick to the defensive approach they adopted in their 3-0 defeat to Belgium. It will be a physical battle - but England’s group of players brought up on physical English football will be up for the challenge.
England’s expected goals value was the highest of any team in the first round of games as they tore into Tunisia early on. They were unlucky not to be out of sight by the time Tunisia equalised from the penalty spot.
Yet England hardly ever thrash teams. Their last major tournament victory by more than one goal was a 2-0 win over Trinidad and Tobago at the 2006 World Cup. However Panama are simply less good defensively than Tunisia, and this might be the time to bet on England taking a team apart.
Prediction: England 3-0 Panama
Top Bet: England -1.5 at 10/11
Group H Table & Results
Japan vs. Senegal (FOX, 11:00 a.m. ET)
Group H’s two outsiders face off as the section’s two leaders after Japan stunned Colombia and Senegal deservedly beat Poland on the opening round of games.
Neither team was especially brilliant in these two surprise wins. Senegal took the lead thanks to an own goal before capitalising on a terrible backpass by Grzegorz Krychowiak to double their advantage. Nonetheless, they defended comfortably and broke well against a dreadfully lethargic Poland.
Any plans Japan or Colombia might have had going into their match were thrown out of the window when Carlos Sanchez was sent off for a deliberate handball in the third minute. Shinji Kagawa converted the penalty, but from then on, it was an even contest between the ten Colombians and Japan’s eleven.Both sides are reasonably cautious, and have even more reason to be so given that they already have three points on the board. Five points is likely to be enough to secure qualification from this group. The situation of the group means that this could be among the more dull matches at this World Cup.
Prediction: Japan 0-0 Senegal
Top Bet: Draw at 21/10
Poland vs. Colombia (FOX, 2:00 p.m. ET)
There were big question marks hanging over the two antepost favourites for qualification from Group H, and those doubts increased further as both Poland and Colombia flopped on the opening round.
There is much more cause for concern for Poland, who turned in a dismally uninspired display against Senegal, perhaps confirming fears that a reasonably talented squad on paper had peaked at the wrong time - somewhere between Euro 2016 and this World Cup.
Kamil Glik is a huge miss at centre-back, and Robert Lewandowski cut a largely forlorn figure up front.
Colombia more than matched Japan for the 84 minutes of the match they played with one less player. Radamel Falcao was superb up front, the midfield was bright and created chances, and it was only a careless bit of defending from a corner that allowed Japan to escape with the three points.
Both teams need to win this, and so it should be a good game to watch. Colombia simply look to have more quality, while Poland have all the hallmarks of flops after their display against Senegal. Colombia are the value to win.
Prediction: Poland 0-2 Colombia
Top Bet: Colombia at 13/10
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