CL Best Bets – Tuesday
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
Group Table
The Banker: Red Star Belgrade vs. Paris Saint-Germain
Paris Saint-Germain are embroiled in the toughest group of this year’s competition, but a trip to Red Star Belgrade should mean that they find an easy end to a difficult route to the last 16.
Thomas Tüchel’s side lie second and need a win to qualify, which they are 2/11 to get. Even a draw combined with Napoli avoiding defeat at Liverpool would see them through.
Red Star Belgrade would have exceeded all expectations by getting pretty much any points in such a tough group, so a tally of four will be of great pride to the Serbian champions. But their visit to PSG was an absolute paddling. They lost the match 6-0, and even in the hostile cauldron of the Marakana stadium, it is easy to foresee another heavy defeat.
Even if Neymar proves to be unfit, Kylian Mbappe and Edinson Cavani are used to having fun with weak opponents in Ligue 1 matches. Once they open the scoring, this could be a long night for Red Star.
At 9/10 a bet on PSG -2 (money back if PSG win by two goals) looks value.
Tip: PSG -2 at 9/10
Prediction: Red Star Belgrade 0-4 PSG
The Solid Bet: Liverpool vs. Napoli
Liverpool know a 1-0 success or a victory margin of two goals or more would see them through to the last 16 in their titanic clash against Napoli, while any victory will be enough if Paris Saint-Germain fail to win in Belgrade.
But Carlo Ancelotti’s side are unbeaten in the group and Liverpool’s fate would already be virtually sealed had Napoli not dropped two silly points in their opening match away to Red Star.Liverpool are playing like a title-winning team, and in many years without Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City they would have already wrapped up their first title in nearly 30 years by now. They warmed up for this match with an impressive 4-0 win at Bournemouth - with a slightly weakened team.
It is in Napoli's nature to play positively, and that should play into Liverpool’s hands. Liverpool’s record at Anfield on big European nights is fabled - and based in reality. This will be a tough night for Jürgen Klopp’s men but they look value to get the win, whether or not that win is enough to qualify.
Tip: Liverpool to win at 3/4
Prediction: Liverpool 3-1 Napoli
The Outsider: Inter Milan vs. PSV Eindhoven
Inter Milan have made an excellent fist of their first season in the Champions League since 2011/12 and are poised to qualify from a tough group. It could be a strange night at the San Siro. With Tottenham leading them on the head-to-head rule but travelling to Barcelona, Inter could qualify for the knockout stages with a draw or go out with a win. It all depends on what happens at the Nou Camp. All Inter cannot do is lose.
But PSV have been plucky underdogs in this group and are desperately unlucky to have just one point from five games. They were narrowly beaten in the reverse fixture, conceded at late winner away to Tottenham and won the expected goals battle against (an albeit weakened) Barcelona side last time out. They may well make life nervy for Luciano Spaletti’s men, and a draw at 17/4, given that that is quite likely to be enough for Inter to qualify, looks great value.
Tip: Draw at 17/4
Prediction: Inter 1-1 PSV Eindhoven
The First Goalscorer: Monaco vs. Borussia Dortmund
This looks a reasonably difficult match to call. It is effectively a dead rubber. Borussia Dortmund are already through and sit two points behind Atletico Madrid, who top Group A. Monaco are guaranteed to finish bottom. They have gained just one solitary point so far.
Dortmund, assuming that Atletico will beat Club Brugge in the group’s other game, have rested some key players, such as Jadon Sancho and Marco Reus, for this fixture.
Monaco, who have lost six of their last eight home games, are in a desperate relegation battle and scored just four goals in their last seven outings. Thierry Henry’s side have far bigger things to worry about than salvaging some pride from a dismal Champions League campaign.
One man who is not being rested is Dortmund hotshot Paco Alcacer. He is averaging just under three goals per 90 minutes in the Bundesliga this year and looks superb value to score first at 9/2.
Tip: Paco Alcacer to score first at 9/2
Prediction: Monaco 0-2 Borussia Dortmund
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