World Cup Breakdown: Part II – The Dark Horses

We know that a select few teams have won the last 13 world cups. As was pointed out in Part I, the cream does in fact rise to the top, especially over the course of a month and a potential seven grueling matches. There just doesn’t seem like much of a chance that a unit will come out of nowhere, defy all the pundits (and defy Brazil, Italy, England, et al along the way as well), and lift sport’s most coveted trophy.

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Of course, upsets happen in every World Cup, and even soccer minnows can advance deep into a tourney. Recall Cameroon’s improbable advance to the quarterfinal round in Italia 1990, and Bulgaria’s run to the semis in USA 1994. The recipe was the same in each instance—each squad was utterly overlooked as a serious contender, and each team had a talismanic leader put his team on his shoulders and drag them through the tourney. Who can forget Cameroon’s Roger Milla, or Bulgaria’s Hristo Stoichkov?

This group of teams represents a handful of squads that have been overlooked as serious contenders, and yet have the right mix of talent and leadership on the field to put together a run deep into this year’s tourney. It is generally acknowledged that Argentina, Holland, and perhaps Portugal constitute the second group of outsider favorites for the trophy, but the teams below haven’t really been given a serious chance to do much of anything in this year’s event. It may not be as wise as backing Brazil or Italy or England to win it all, but it’s more fun.

Okay okay, these guys aren’t exactly a bunch of mugs and nobodies, and yet they never seem to be a factor in big tournaments, and they aren’t exactly showing up on a lot of lists as likely victors. But one glance at the roster and you know this team is loaded—again. First of all, there is no way that Spain can typically bemoan their lack of luck in terms of the draw, because they have been drawn in arguably the weakest group of the tournament. Second, Spain is unbeaten since 2004 when Luis Aragones took over as coach.

The challenge for Aragones is to find the right lineup, especially up front. Raul Gonzalez, Spain’s all-time leading scorer is back, and knows he needs a big tournament to cement his legend. Other sources of firepower abound in Fernando Torres, who could become an international star in this tournament, and in Arsenal duo Cesc Fabregas and Jose Antonio Reyes, who are also excellent midfield creators. Xabi Alonso, David Albelda and Luis Garcia fill out an outstanding midfield, one that can hold the ball, score goals, and provide service to Raul, Torres and danger man David Villa, who should see plenty of playing time on the attack depending on Aragones’ formation. Iker Casillas is world-class in goal. Look for Spain to win this group and then defeat Switzerland to reach the quarters. Unfortunately for them, Brazil is the likely quarterfinal opponent.

Sweden is a big, powerful team with plenty of stars of its own, and they will benefit from a favorable draw as well. The Swedes have been playing together for a long time, and most are well acclimated to Coach Lars Lagerbeck’s system. Most of the squad plays in the Premiership and Serie A, and by definition face top talent week in and week out. It all starts up front with Zlatan Ibrahimovich of Juventus and Henrik Larsson of Barcelona, who are both among the best strikers in the world. Larsson’s speed and killer instinct, and Ibrahimovich’s imposing presence in front of the goal mean that Sweden should score goals.

Freddie Ljungberg is one of the most tireless and tenacious players in these finals, and his slashing runs should help unlock opposing defenses. Linderoth plays the holding role well in this system, and Olof Mellberg captains a defensive system which has allowed only a goal every 3 games during the last 4 qualifying campaigns. Sweden knows England well and usually gives the Three Lions trouble in group matches. If Sweden can outpoint England in the group stage, they should face either Costa Rica or Poland in the round of 16, which should see them into the quarters at least. A loss to England should see them through to a match with Germany in round 2, a tough but not impossible match given Germany’s inappropriate status as one of the tournament’s fashionable favorites.

This is one of Mexico’s strongest teams ever fielded for a World Cup, and like the teams above, has the talent in place at critical positions to advance given the right set of circumstances. A very tactically versatile side, Ricardo Lavolpe’s Mexico can adapt as perhaps no other team can to adverse or favorable game conditions and not miss a beat. Another advantage Mexico enjoys is the team’s experience in playing together. Over the last four years, Mexico has played more competitive games than any other side in the tournament; in 2005 alone they played an astonishing 26 games. This familiarity bred over the last several years is beginning to pay off, as Mexico beat Brazil and drew with Germany and Argentina in the 2005 Confederations Cup. Obviously this team can play.

Rafael Marquez, a star at Barcelona, anchors the defense and is the soul of the team. He is a great marker and ferocious tackler who leads by example on a team that historically has had no such leadership since Hugo Sanchez’s departure. Jared Borgetti is extremely dangerous in the air, and is a real threat when midfielder Jesus Arellano is supplying the crosses.

Los Tricolores will be looking to take six points from the first two games, as they start with games versus Iran and Angola. This draw couldn’t be better for Mexico, because by the time they play Portugal, they should be through to the next round already, where they will likely face Ivory Coast or Netherlands depending on the outcome of the Portugal match. There is no question that they face a tough road beyond the group stage, but the Mexicans have the talent to advance to the later stages.

Usually at least one African team in the World Cup springs a major surprise in the form of an upset or a run deep into the tournament, and Ivory Coast is this year’s best hope for the sub-continent. The Elephants come in loaded with pace and stamina, and this year’s African favorite boast loads of skill as well. Their draw into the "Group of Death" didn’t do them any favors, but Ivory Coast has a legitimate shot to draw or even beat Argentina, an event which should see them qualify out of Group C, most likely with Holland. Didier Drogba is an excellent goal scorer, and no one is stronger on the ball when he gets near goal. Drogba averaged a goal a game during qualifying, and should be able to run rampant against comparatively lead-footed Argentine and Serbian defenses. Arsenal’s Kolo Toure is no stranger to big games, and is the rock around which IC’s defense is built.

The Elephants come in with deserved confidence following a couple of very impressive performance in friendly matches leading up to the tournament. A 1-1 draw with Italy and a scintillating 3-2 defeat to Spain proves that Ivory Coast can score against the more vaunted and organized defenses in this Cup. I’m not sure that Ivory Coast isn’t just happy to be here, but should they gain a measure of confidence in their opening match against Argentina (and at least one point), they have the personnel to make a good run in this Cup.