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Inside the Stats

Editor's Note: Don't miss out on Marc Lawrence's pro football and college football selections on this season!
Each week we take a look inside the numbers, from both a statistical and a point-spread aspect, on the college football and NFL cards. 
Here are this week’s findings…
Leaking Oil Scorecard
As alluded to in this space last week, when a team has been outgained in each of its three previous games I refer to them as ‘leaking oil’.
There have been 10 college football and four NFL teams that have been installed as ‘leaking oil’ favorites this season.  Collectively they are 2-12 against the spread (1-9 CFB; 1-3 NFL).
Last week saw Connecticut (-3.5) and the Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) laying points.  They both lost the whole game, straight up.
This week’s Quaker State plays would be against:
NCAAFB: Akron, Georgia Tech, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Rice, Temple
NFL: Detroit, Miami, N.Y. Giants
Deep Six
With the season approaching the midway point, let’s take one final look at expanding our bankroll with college football teams in Game Six situations.
Our well-oiled database reports a turning point for 3-2 or better teams that take to the road when playing off one-loss exact. They win and continue with the prospects of donning bowling shirts, or they lose and begin entertaining visions of staying home for the holidays. Thus, these become pivotal games on each team’s schedule.
These savvy travelers, playing off one-loss exact, respond with vigor in Game Six scenarios going 103-73-3 ATS in all games since 1980. That represents a rock solid 60% wining spread mark.
This week finds Navy patrolling the waters in this Deep Six scenario.
Better yet, when priced as underdogs in competitive situations (+10 or fewer points) they improve to 42-21-1 ATS.
The best role occurs when these same visitors take on a foe off win who sports a .500 or greater record as they improve to 25-8-1 ATS in these spirited battles, including 18-3-1 ATS in games in which the foe allows 14.8 or more PPG on the season.
Yes, indeed, the Midshipmen look to be a ‘devilishly’ good side on this week’s card when they visit Toledo on Saturday.
Mr. Clean
To a football player, winning football games on the playing field is practically as good as winning them on the scoreboard.
It means your team outplayed the other team, regardless of what the final score said.
It’s also a strong indicator of what results we can expect in future games.
Here is a list of college football teams that are perfect ITS (In The Stats) in all games this season to date:
Arizona State, Baylor, BYU, Florida State, Georgia, Louisville, Michigan State, Oregon, UCLA, Western Kentucky
Here is a list of college football teams that are winless ITS (In The Stats) this season:
Akron, Miami Ohio, New Mexico State, Temple
In the NFL, the only perfect ITS team is Houston (surprise), while the winless ITS clubs include Miami, Minnesota and Tampa Bay.
Highs and Lows
The average OU line in the 14 NFL games last week was 45.5.  The average total points per game were 43.8.
The average game went UNDER by -1.7 points.  Strange, considering 60% of the overall games went OVER the total (9-6).
It was the second straight week in which there were more ‘Overs’ than ‘Unders’.
Once again the best OVER situation has been in non-conference games (AFC vs. NFC).  These games have gone 22-10 OVER.
This week’s potential non-conference OVERS in Week 7 would be:

Cincinnati at Detroit
San Francisco at Tennessee
Cleveland at Green Bay
Stat of the Week
The Miami Dolphins are 3-19 ATS as home favorites in game in which they own a win percentage of .454 or higher.

Marshall: Tech Trends - Week 8 Dak, Dallas getting noticed
Nelson: Close Calls - Week 7
DiNitto: Opening Line Report - Week 8
Roberts: Mixed results in Week 7
Dobish: Betting Recap - Week 7
Giants release kicker Josh Brown
QB Jay Cutler makes return for Bears
Jaguars DT Miller out for season
Why Buy Picks From
NFL Pro Football Handicapper Sports Picks Records
NFL Hot Streaks
14-2 L16 Totals, 9-1 Sun., 21-7 L28
13-3 G-Play Run, +1,095 TY
5-2 Sunday, 7-2 L9 G-Plays
9-1 Last 10 NFL Guarantees
6-0 Record L2 Sundays
4-1 Sunday, 10-4 L14 G-Plays
5-2 Sunday, 10-3 L13 Totals
10-3 L3 Sundays, 28-14 NFL Run
17-7 Last 24 NFL G-Plays
6-1 Thursdays TY, 13-6 L19 GPlays
4-2 Sunday, 4-1 G-Plays TY
6-1 Guaranteed Plays TY
6-2 Record Last 2 Weeks
9-4 Last 13 Guaranteed Plays
3-0 L3 Thurs., 10-5 L15 Picks
6-2 Last 8 NFL Guarantees
NFL Pro Football Expert Picks - Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
Money Leaders
Handicapper Money
Pat Hawkins + 1095
Kevin Rogers + 500
Chip Chirimbes + 467
Last Week's Leaders
Handicapper Money
Micah Roberts + 780
Jimmy Boyd + 290
Kevin Rogers + 285
Percentage Leaders
Handicapper Pct
Pat Hawkins 60 %
Michael Black 58 %
Don Anthony 56 %
Guaranteed Leaders
Handicapper Money
Pat Hawkins + 1060
Chip Chirimbes + 665
ASA + 531
Over-Under Leaders
Handicapper Money
Kevin Rogers + 575
Paul Bovi + 542
Pat Hawkins + 370
Member Leaders
Handicapper Money
Kevin Rogers + 810
Gary Bart + 544
Jimmy Boyd + 495
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