We have a good weekend of betting action coming up including Churchill Downs' “Downs After Dark” program, the Saturday card getting underway at 4:30 eastern with the pair of stakes that will be run under the lights.
The $100,000 Commonwealth (G3) drew a field of 13 including Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes also-ran Frac Daddy, who will be making just his third start on turf in his career.
The 4-1 morning line favorite is Winning Cause, who has done his best work on poly including winning the Lexington (G3) back in April at Keeneland. The Todd Pletcher trainee is 1 for 4 on turf. The win was a victory in the restitched Sir Cat at Saratoga in July.
The co-feature is the $175,00 Mrs. Revere (G2) for three-year-old fillies that drew a full field of 14. The Bill Mott trained Tapicat is the 7-2 morning line favorite in a wide-open race.
Aqueduct serves up a trio of stakes on Saturday featuring the $250,000 Red Smith Handicap (G3) for three-year-olds and upward going 1 3/8 miles on the turf.
The Chad Brown trainee Hyper is the 5-2 morning line favorite coming off a solid runner up finish in the Canadian International (G1) at Woodbine in his last start.
He faces a solid field that includes E.P. Taylor (G1) victor Tannery (5-1) and Bowl Game winner Imagining (7-2).
The supporting stakes on the Big A card on Saturday are the $100,000 Vigro Libra for two-year-olds and the $100,000 Move It Now Stakes for New York breds.
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Analysis: Rocks Anne makes her debut for the Violette barn that is 24% winners with first timers. The filly has a decent pedigree, by Rock Hard Ten out of a Carson City mare that has dropped four foals to race, a pair of winners, top earner Prospero ($69,230). The filly has decent looking works on the morning tab and debuts with lasix. She may end up getting overlooked on the tote in this spot.
Princess Tumi was off poorly and never a threat in a ninth place finish in her debut for the Chad Brown barn. She comes back with blinkers added and a class drop for a barn that wins at a 28% clip with second out maidens. She has six sibs that are winners including a pair of stakes winners, top earner Whatsitgonnatake ($247,894).
WIN: #8 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 1,8 / 1,2,5,8
TRI: 1,8 / 1,2,5,8 / 1,2,5,8,9
Analysis: Much Stronger was beaten just a neck last out in a tough beat against $35,000 starter optional claimers at Belmont Park and got a two month break. Two back this guy beat $100,000 claimers at the Spa. The colt has a win and a second in two trips over the Big A main track and is in good hands with the Jacobson barn that is 8 for 35 at the meeting to top the trainer standings. The trainer is 27% winners (with a +ROI) with runners coming back off a 46-90 day break.
Tizmas is also coming back off a two month break for a sharp outfit. The Servis barn claimed this guy for $15,000 last out where the gelding checked in third, which was his first go off a three month break. The runner up and fourth place finishers came out of the race to win next out. The gelding can handle the extra ground as his last win came going two turns at Philly back on March against $16,000 starter allowance foes. The barn hits at a 29% clip first off the claim.
WIN: #9 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 4,9 / 2,4,8,9
TRI: 4,9 / 2,4,8,9 / 2,4,5,8,9
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Mike DempseyMike covers the New York racing circuit (Aqueduct, Belmont Park, and Saratoga) year round as well as Keeneland, Churchill Downs, the Triple Crown, and the Breeders' Cup. The 2015 Triple Crown saw Mike correctly predict American Pharoah to win both the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. Mike nailed the Exacta and Trifecta in the Belmont Stakes. Mike had a solid 2014 Triple Crown race season, correctly picking the winning horse in 2 of 3 races. He selected I'll Have another to win The Preakness, and nailed Union Rags to win the Belmont Stakes as his top pick. Mike also had past succes in the Kentucky Derby, winning with Animal Kingdom in 2011 and rode his top picks, Super Saver and Street Sense, to the finish line in 2010 and 2007 respectively. No handicapper in the industry works harder to bring you analysis that produces profits at the track! Mike's Reports include his selections, detailed analysis, a fair odds line, and wagering recommendations for the entire card. Join Mike daily with top picks from Belmont or Keeneland. You can also get his Weekend Best Plays Report in his Multi-Track package or sit at the track with him for 30 Days with his Monthly Horse Package!
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Jerry SessaJerry "Shots" Sessa has been involved in horse racing for over 30 years. He now brings his meticulous handicapping style to VegasInsider.com. When Jerry posts picks you are getting his best bets...when you win, he wins. Jerry opened the 2016 Triple Crown season by hitting his Derby Day best bet, Nyquist. He also nailed the Derby exacta for a $30.60 payout. On 4/16/16 at Keeneland, Jerry hit an $819 exacta that led to a $38k Trifecta & a $300k Super.
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