Sharp Moves - Week 12
November 22, 2013
By Mike Rose
We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 12!
All public betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com databases as of Friday morning.
(Rotation #223) New York +3.5 – The Jets know that winning this game essentially eliminates Baltimore from the playoffs in all likelihood. That's why there's a lot of public action coming in on the Ravens essentially laying just beyond home field advantage. In the end though, doesn't this just feel like a game that Gang Green comes out and wins? The Jets have alternated wins and losses all season long, and this one would be the spot for a win if that sequence were to holds up.
Opening Line: New York +4
Current Line: New York +3.5
Public Betting Percentage: 64% on Baltimore
(Rotation #215) San Diego +4 – This is a vintage sandwich game for the Chiefs. They've got the two pieces of bread known as the games against Denver and this big chunk of turkey in the middle known as the Chargers. Just one problem: San Diego is no turkey team. The Bolts have only been out of one game which they have played this year. This is a winnable game for a desperate San Diego outfit that enters having dropped three games in a row.
Opening Line: San Diego +5
Current Line: San Diego +4
Public Betting Percentage: 67% on Kansas City
(Rotation #228) Arizona -2.5 – If there is a man out there that should be able to figure out what QB Andrew Luck is doing, it would be Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians, who coached up Luck in his rookie campaign last year in Indy. The Colts really aren't in that much dire need of wins, as the AFC South is probably already wrapped up. It's Arizona which is in the thick of the fight in the NFC Wild Card chase, and this is a very winnable home game for sure.
Opening Line: Arizona -1.5
Current Line: Arizona -2.5
Public Betting Percentage: 59% on Indianapolis
(Rotation #232) New England +2 – Sharp money is pouring in on the Pats this week as 'dogs at home, but the injury report suggests otherwise. The Broncos are expected to have all of their most important players in this game, including WR Wes Welker, who was concussed last week. Meanwhile, New England has its top three cornerbacks all nursing injuries, which isn't good going against what is likely the best passing game in NFL history. Someone knows something, though, as this line is moving the opposite direction of conventional wisdom. Perhaps it's that New England has won three in a row both SU and ATS against the Broncos.
Opening Line: New England +3
Current Line: New England +2
Public Betting Percentages: 65% on Denver
7-0 L7, 11-2 L13 NFL Streak
4-0 LW, 13-5 Totals, 25-11 L7 Sun.
7-2 Run, 24-11 L7 Sundays
6-0 Guarantees, 4-1 Playoffs
9-3 Playoffs, 5-1 L6 Totals
7-1 Playoff Picks, 7-2 L9 G-Plays
6-0 L6 G-Plays, 5-2 Playoffs
12-3 L15 G-Plays, 12-4 L16 Picks
2-0 Sunday, 6-0 G-Play Run
4-0 L2 Sundays, 28-10 G-Play Run
7-2 L9 Picks, 6-1 L7 Totals
9-1 L5 Sun, 14-5 Run, 21-5 GPlays
9-4 L13 G-Plays, +1,845 Picks TY
5-0 Totals, 11-3 G-Plays, 9-4 Picks
9-2 L11 G-Plays, 64% +1,105 TY
2-0 Sunday, 6-1 L7 Guarantees
3-1 L2 Sat, 5-2 L3 Sun, 8-1 G-Plays
6-0 L6 Guarantees, 10-4 L14 Picks
2-0 Saturday, 11-4 L15 G-Plays
10-5, +756 Postseason Record
2-0 Sun, 3-1 L2 Sat, 12-3 G-Plays
4-2 LW, 8-3 L11 Guarantees
4-1 L2 Sundays, 5-0 L5 G-Plays
7-1 L8 G-Plays, 23-13 L36 Picks
6-2 L8 Picks, 12-4 L16 Totals
4-1 L5 Picks, 4-0 L4 Totals
3-0 Guarantees, 3-1 Last Week
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