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Total Talk - Week 13

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Week 12 Recap

The first time in a while, total players finally saw some low-scoring affairs, which helped the ‘under’ go 7-6-1 in Week 12. Including those results, the ‘over’ still sits at 93-79-2 on the season and that doesn’t include the three ‘over’ winners that cashed this past Thursday on Thanksgiving.

Non-Conference Overs

This season, we’ve had 53 non-conference matchups (AFC vs. NFC) this season and the ‘over’ has gone 40-13 (76%) in those games. In Week 12, the results went 1-1 but the Oakland-Dallas matchup on Thanksgiving kept the trend rolling into this weekend.

There is only one game that fit this angle on Sunday.

Atlanta at Buffalo – When you first looked at this game, the high total might’ve turned you away but make a note that this game is being played at the Rogers Center from Toronto, Canada. This will be the sixth time that the NFL will play a game from this venue. The first four games saw the ‘under’ go 3-0-1 but last year’s matchup was an easy ‘over’ tickets as Seattle blasted Buffalo 50-17. The Bills are 1-4 in the “Toronto Series” but the oddsmakers have them listed as 3 ½-point favorites on Sunday. 

Line Moves

The Line Moves went 2-2 last week, pushing the season numbers to 33-24-1 (58%). Listed below are this week’s matchups that have had a total move by 1 ½ points or more at CRIS’s opening lines, which were sent out Sunday evening.

Chicago at Minnesota: Line opened 48 and jumped to 50
Miami at N.Y. Jets: Line opened at 38 ½ and jumped to 40 ½
New England at Houston: Line opened at 46 and jumped to 47 ½
Denver at Kansas City: Line opened 47 ½ and jumped to 49
Cincinnati at San Diego: Line opened at 45 and jumped to 48

Indoor Shootouts

There were three games played indoors in Week 12 and all three went ‘over’ their totals. In Week 13, we have four more on tap and the oddsmakers are expecting more high-scoring affairs.  

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Tennessee at Indianapolis
– These teams met a few weeks ago in a Thursday night affair as the Colts captured a 30-27 road victory over the Titans. The total has jumped three points (45) for the rematch and both Tennessee (7-3-1) and Indianapolis (7-4) have been ‘over’ clubs this season. Indy has watched the ‘over’ cash in its last five games plus the ‘over’ has gone 4-1 at home. Tennessee on an ‘over’ run (4-0-1) in its last five as well.

Chicago at Minnesota – This is another matchup that features a pair of ‘over’ clubs squaring off as the Vikings (8-2-1) and Bears (8-3) meet for the second time this season. In the first encounter, Chicago defeated Minnesota 31-30 in Week 2 from Soldier Field. The total was 41 for that game and now we’re staring at a number close to 50 in the rematch and both teams are banged-up in the quarterback position too. Why is the number so high? Defensively, the Vikings (31.5 PPG) are the worst in scoring and the Bears (28.1 PPG) are ranked 29th.

New England at Houston – Personally, I wouldn’t touch a side or total that involves Houston right now. The team is a mess and I would expect them to lose out and fire their coach. As far as this matchup goes, I would expect the Patriots’ offense (26.2 PPG) to score but can you trust Houston’s offense (18.1 PPG) to do the same? The number does seem a tad high when you realize the Texans have been inconsistent plus the Patriots have seen the ‘under’ go 3-2 on the road.

Atlanta at Buffalo – (See Above)

Divisional Battles

Tampa Bay at Carolina – The Panthers defeated the Buccaneers 31-13 on the road in late October. Carolina has watched its last four games go ‘under’ while Tampa Bay is on a 6-1 run to the ‘over.’

Miami at N.Y. Jets – This is the first meeting of the season. The ‘under’ has gone 3-1 in the last four encounters. The Jets were held to single digits for the third time this season in their 19-3 loss at Baltimore last Sunday. In the first two instances, New York responded with 30 and 36 in its following games.

St. Louis at San Francisco – The 49ers ran over the Rams 35-11 in Week 4 on the road and the ‘over’ (43) cashed. The ‘over’ is 3-1 in the last four meetings. St. Louis is the best ‘over’ team (9-2) in the NFL. San Francisco used to be a good ‘over’ look but the ‘under’ has cashed in its last three games.

Tennessee at Indianapolis – (See Above)

Chicago at Minnesota – (See Above)

N.Y. Giants at Washington – (See Below)

Under the Lights

For the second consecutive week, the ‘under’ went 2-1 in the primetime games and it could’ve been 3-0 if the Denver-New England affair didn’t catch 41 points in the final two quarters. This week’s primetime games will be tough to handicap considering one is practically meaningless and the other could decide who will get homefield advantage in the NFC.

N.Y. Giants at Washington: This will be the first meeting between the two teams with the rematch set for Week 17, which could be even more meaningless than this one. The Giants have seen the ‘under’ go 3-2 on the road this season while the Redskins have watched the ‘over’ go 3-2 at FedEx Field. The ‘under’ is on a 5-1 run in this series and in the last 10 meetings between the pair, we’ve only see two games with more than 45 points posted on the scoreboard.

New Orleans at Seattle: Real tough total to handicap because you can argue both ways. The Seahawks (16.3 PPG) have the second-best scoring defense in the league while the Saints (17.8 PPG) are ranked fifth. Offensively, Seattle (27.8 PPG) and New Orleans (27.7) are practically tied for second in scoring offense. With that being said, something has to give on MNF. The Seahawks have seen the ‘over’ go 3-2 in their home games while the Saints have been a solid ‘under’ club outside of the Superdome. The last time these franchises met was in the 2011 playoffs when Seattle shocked New Orleans 41-36 as a 10-point home underdog. Be sure to keep an eye on the weather conditions for this game.

Fearless Predictions

We lost 20 cents ($20) in Week 12 but picked up $190 on Thanksgiving. Overall, we’re up $280 heading into the final month. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Miami-New York Jets 40
Best Under: Arizona-Philadelphia 48
Best Team Total: Over 24 San Francisco

Three-Team Total Teaser:
Over 31 Miami-New York Jets
Over 32 St. Louis-San Francisco
Under 56 New Orleans-Seattle

Chris David can be reached at cdavid@vegasinsider.com
 
 

  
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