Three weeks remain in the college football season before we head to the bowls, as several rivalry games are highlighted on the card this weekend. We'll take a look at four contests, including "The Big Game."
Cal at Stanford (-7, 64) - 7:30 PM EST
The battle by the Bay takes place in Palo Alto this year, as the Bears and Cardinal each own identical 7-3 records. Cal made headlines earlier this season with a 3-0 start, while being ranked in the top seven. However, Jeff Tedford's team has won four of their last seven games, while suffering a pair of humiliating losses to Oregon and USC. The Bears have also been without early season Heisman candidate Jahvid Best, who suffered a concussion two weeks ago against Oregon State.
Stanford, meanwhile, has turned into one of the best stories this season in college football. Unlike Cal, Jim Harbaugh's squad has beaten Oregon and USC, including a 55-21 pounding of the Trojans last week at the Coliseum. The Cardinal offense has tallied at least 33 points in each of its last four games, while still having an outside shot to win the Pac-10.
VI capper Joe Nelson says that despite Stanford's massive rushing game, the Bears can keep up with the Cardinal on the ground, "Cal's rushing attack is missing a key piece in Best, but the Bears are still a serious threat in any match-up even though there have been some losses this year. Last week's win over Arizona was a redeeming effort to ward off the late season fade and this rivalry game has been won by the Bears six of the last seven years."
The Cardinal continues to cash tickets, but Nelson points out that the role has flipped for Harbaugh's team, "Stanford has incredibly covered in eleven consecutive home games, but many of those games came as underdogs and the Cardinal are now playing the unfamiliar role as a favorite against a quality opponent. Stanford's defense has still shown some vulnerability and there has to be a letdown following back-to-back huge wins over the top programs in the Pac-10. California may be an overlooked team at this point, but this is still a team capable of playing with anyone in this conference and this looks like a favorable underdog spot."
North Carolina at Boston College (-3 ½, 37 ½) - 12:00 PM EST
These two teams had different expectations to begin the season, as the Tar Heels were thought to compete for a berth in the ACC Championship, while the Eagles weren't supposed to be a threat in the conference. Both of those things didn't come to fruition.
UNC started conference play at 0-3, sealing its fate for a potential ACC Title Game berth. Granted, the Tar Heels have rebounded with three consecutive wins, including a victory over Miami for a third straight season. However, Butch Davis' team will be likely staring at a pre-New Year's Day bowl.
Boston College still has an opportunity to play in the ACC Championship, but the Eagles have to win their final two, while Clemson needs to lose this week to Virginia. Even if the Eagles do not claim the ACC Atlantic Division, BC has racked up an impressive 7-3 season, while covering six of nine lined contests. The Eagles have done the most damage at home, compiling a 6-0 SU and 5-0 ATS mark (the lone non-lined victory came over Northeastern).
Nelson believes this matchup should be a quality one between two evenly matched squads, "BC has not posted great offensive numbers this season, but they have out-paced North Carolina, although the Heels have been better on the defensive end. UNC has now won and covered in three consecutive games but the last two wins came at home. Last week, UNC survived in a close game against Miami and that was obviously a huge game for the team for the players and the coaching staff given that Butch Davis used to lead the "U," while also clinching bowl eligibility for the Tar Heels."
The Eagles are in a nice revenge spot, and according to Nelson, could be a good situation to back BC. "Boston College lost badly in Chapel Hill last season, but this is a team that has an incredible track record at home in the past decade and this should be a problematic spot for North Carolina coming off a very big emotional win. Last week, the UNC defense allowed over 400 yards and benefited from four turnovers so the Tar Heels may be a bit overvalued this week," Nelson says.
Tulane at Central Florida (-21, 48) - 2:00 PM EST
The Knights pulled off a substantial upset last week, as UCF knocked off Houston, 37-32, the first time the Knights have ever beaten a ranked opponent. With the win, UCF still has an opportunity to play for the Conference USA Championship. Tulane, meanwhile, continues to languish near the bottom of the conference at 3-7, as the Green Wave has dropped five of six.
Tulane has not helped bettors, especially as double-digit underdogs, going 0-5 ATS when receiving at least ten points. The Knights have profited in the favorite role, covering three of four when laying points. However, the last time UCF was a favorite of at least 20 points came in 2007, as the Knights did not cover in a win over UTEP. The Knights were 'chalk' of at least 20 points three times that season, compiling an 0-3 ATS mark.
Nelson says that UCF should be able to exploit this Tulane defense, "The offensive statistics for these teams are actually fairly similar, but Tulane is allowing over 200 yards per game on the ground defensively which has been the main reason for the struggles. Tulane has covered just once in the last seven road games, but Central Florida has not been a great performer in the favorite role. Tulane was a 10-9 winner the last time these teams met and UCF was shutout last season in their final home game of the year.
The Green Wave has received a lift at quarterback recently, as Nelson feels that several early season tests for Tulane will benefit them here, "Tulane fill-in QB Ryan Griffin has six touchdowns and just one interception in the last two games and he has completed over 64 percent of his passes. UCF is allowing nearly 280 yards per game through the air, so this could be a problematic match-up for a Golden Knights team that is not accustomed to laying big points. Tulane easily could have won last week before a tough finish and this is a team that is playing better than most realize as ugly lopsided losses to LSU and BYU in non-conference play are hiding some decent numbers."
Kentucky at Georgia (-9, 51) - 7:45 PM EST
These two SEC East squads are dead-even at 6-4, as many thought Georgia would fall back this season following the losses of Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno to the NFL. Kentucky has been on fire, as the Wildcats have won four of their last five games. Rich Brooks' team owns only one quality victory in this span, upsetting Auburn.
Georgia's offense has been hit-or-miss all season, scoring over 30 points five times, but were held to 20 or less points on five other occasions. The Bulldogs are just 2-5 ATS as a favorite this season, while covering only three of ten times overall.
Nelson says the Bulldogs' pointspread struggles could continue this week, "Last season Georgia beat Kentucky 42-38, needing a late interception to fight off the upset, as the Wildcats have not won in Athens in over 30 years. Georgia has played the tougher schedule, but the offense has barely been more productive than the defense and the Bulldogs also own one of the worst turnover margins in the nation."
The Wildcats may not own many great victories this season, but Nelson feels UK has still impressed under the radar, "Kentucky is a solid rushing team which could make them a threat as an underdog and Georgia is just 1-7 ATS in the last eight games as home favorites, with last week's narrow win ending the losing cover streak. Kentucky is a difficult team to pass on and this could be a tricky game for a favored Georgia team that has shown plenty of vulnerability on both sides of the ball this year."
You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at rogers@vegasinsider.com
