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UFC Night Night
September 15, 2009
By VegasInsider.com
T he Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to Oklahoma for the first time since 1994 with UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs. Guillard. The sport of mixed martial arts has advanced at an incredible rate since UFC 4 was held in the Sooner State.
That event featured an eight-man tournament format that had no weight classes or time limits. Hall of Fame fighters Royce Gracie and Dan ‘The Beast’ Severn collided in the final, with the Brazilian prevailing with a triangle-choke submission.
Wednesday’s affair from Oklahoma City’s Cox Convention Center will feature the 155-pound lightweight division with a pair of marquee matchups. The main event pits Nate Diaz (10-4) against Melvin ‘The Young Assassin’ Guillard (41-8-3). Both fighters were on different seasons of The Ultimate Fighter, with Guillard appearing in the second season while Diaz won season five.
Pinnacle Sports currently lists Diaz as the $2.35 favorite (bet $235 to win $100) over Guillard, the $2.10 underdog (bet $100 to win $210).
Diaz is currently mired in a two-fight losing streak after recording five consecutive victories. The Stockton, California native won his first four UFC fights by submission before recording a split-decision victory over Josh Neer. Then the 24-year-old suffered a split-decision loss to Clay Guida and a unanimous-decision setback to Joe Stevenson.
Guillard, an athletic striker, enters this matchup riding a two-fight winning streak. The New Orleans native had dropped consecutive contests before knocking out Dennis Siver and earning a split-decision victory over Gleison Tibau.
It’s another lightweight fight on Wednesday’s card that might very well be the most intriguing matchup of the night.
Gray ‘The Bully’ Maynard (8-0) is near the top of the lightweight rankings, but he will face a tough test against Roger ‘El Matador’ Huerta (22-2-1). While Maynard looks to move into title contention, Huerta is fighting the last fight on his contract and is trying to get into acting.
The UFC brass saw ‘El Matador’ as a marketing dream to the latino audience due to his exciting fighting style and good looks. Huerta was the first person in MMA to ever grace the cover of Sports Illustrated. However, things went sour with him and the UFC when he decided not to renew his fight contract and try his hand at movies.
Pinnacle Sports installed Maynard as a $3.08 ‘chalk’ over Huerta, the $2.71 underdog.
Maynard, training out of Xtreme Couture in Las Vegas, has used his wrestling background to win his last four fights by unanimous decision. The 30-year-old has fought on pay-per-views his last two fights, beating Rich Clementi at UFC 90 and Jim Miller at UFC 96.
Huerta had impressive knockout victories over Doug Evans and Alberto Crane, but his submission victory over Clay Guida was epic. The 26-year-old was losing the fight on the scorecards before locking in a choke in the third round of a high-energy contest.
His next fight against Kenny Florian resulted in a unanimous-decision setback at UFC 87, paving the way for Florian’s title shot at BJ Penn while Huerta took time off to concentrate on his acting. This will mark his first octagon action in over a year.
Here are three of my Best Bets for Wedneday's card.
NATE DIAZ -235
Nate Diaz creates problems for the lightweight division due to his height, and he has a sizeable advantage over Melvin Guillard. Diaz is 6'0'' and uses his size to fight on the outside with his jab, but he becomes especially dangerous on the ground. His specialty is jiu jitsu, and he has locked in some of the more memorable triangle chokes with his long limbs. In a matchup of styles, Guillard is taylor-made for Diaz.
Guillard is an explosive striker, but he often charges in trying for the highlight-reel knockout. He has shown power, especially in knockout wins over Rick Davis (fight lasted 1:37) and Dennis Siver (fight lasted :36), but was submitted in just 27 seconds against Joe Stevenson. I see this fight going very much like the Stevenson fight, with Guillard charging before ultimately getting caught with a first-round submission loss.
GRAY MAYNARD -308
Gray Maynard is on the short list for a shot at the lightweight title after the BJ Penn-Diego Sanchez matchup later this year. Maynard is called 'The Bully' because of his wrestling and his ability to grind out victories. While not the most exciting fighter, I expect him to grind out another decision against a fighter who is leaving the UFC to pursue Hollywood.
If Roger Huerta had been active, I would jump on the underdog in this spot. But the fact is that 'El Matador' hasn't fought since August 2008 and has his sights set on other pursuits. Expect Huerta to try acting for a year or two before returning to MMA and becoming a big star in the latino community.
STEVE CANTWELL -300
There are so many big favorites on this UFC Fight Night card, that no real underdog possibilities arise. My best bet on this night is the third installment between Brian Cantwell and Brian 'All American' Stann. Cantwell lost to Stann in just :41 in a WEC fight back in early 2007 when he was hit right on the button and knocked out.
Cantwell earned a small-measure of revenge when the two met again last August in the WEC, prevailing with a second-round knockout. Cantwell is the more well-rounded fighter, and it showed in their latest meeting. Cantwell is coming off a unanimous-decision loss to Luiz Cane, who is a highly skilled and under-rated light heavyweight. Expect Cantwell to dispatch Stann once again, but this time in the third round via TKO.
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