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UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov Betting Odds

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
2 minute read
  • January 31, 2021
  • By Adam Lykkesteen
  • Vegasinsider.com
    •

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov Odds & Analysis

  • Date: Saturday, Feb. 6, 2021
  • TV-Time: ESPN/ESPN+, 8:00 p.m. ET
  • Venue: UFC Apex
  • Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

Let’s have a look at this fight from a bettor’s perspective.

We got an 8-year age discrepancy between the fighters, but I don’t think that will play into this fight.

Alistair Overeem is a bit of a statistical outlier when it comes to age, as he seems to have entered his UFC career’s peak in his last five fights. If not for that controversial last-second KO to Rozenstruik, Overeem would be on a 5-fight win streak, 3 of those wins as an underdog.

Historically in the heavyweight division, the underdogs have cashed more often than in any other weight division, giving us some value on Overeem. Alistair has shown his ability to upset the bookies before.

Alexander Volkov tends to use his reach to pick his competition apart from the outside and has no problem going to a decision to do so. In the UFC, half of his wins have come via decision, which is quite irregular for a heavyweight.

I usually like fighters who are statistical outliers and use it to their advantage in order to win. However, whether it’s a lack of power or simply a matter of game-planning, Volkov’s tendency to drag fights to a decision will not do him well against Overeem. On the contrary.

At this point in his career, Alistair’s biggest weakness is facing someone who can blitz him early and shut his lights off before he can settle and get into his rhythm. Once he gets going, his veteran experience and knowledge of the game often earn him the win.

Since 2015, Overeem has gone past the first round 9 times and has won 7 of those times.

If Volkov wants a drawn-out fight that goes into the championship rounds, he is doing Alistair a favor. The superior grappling of ‘The Demolition Man’ could very well be put on display if the fight goes the distance.

The value is on Alistair Overeem as the underdog in this matchup.

Overeem vs. Volkov Betting Odds

Volkov remains a healthy -175 favorite over Overeem and we haven't seen much movement in this market after opening on January 13.

Odds: Overeem vs. Volkov
Fighter Open (1/13) 1/24 1/31
Overeem +150 +165 +155
Volkov -170 -175 -175
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