Cheat Sheet – Semifinals
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
The WNBA playoffs field has been cut in half from eight to four and the semifinals will begin this Sunday.
In the first two rounds, the favorites have dominated the postseason with a 3-1 record and the lone outlier was Phoenix, who upset Connecticut in the second round on Sunday. Three of the four outcomes were decided by double digits and total bettors have watched the ‘over’ go 3-1 as well.
The Mercury will now face top overall seed Seattle as an underdog. The winner of that matchup will face Atlanta or Washington in the Finals and despite owning homecourt advantage, the oddsmakers have the Dream as underdogs to the Mystics in their latest future numbers.
Odds to win 2018 WNBA Finals
Seattle Storm 6/5
Washington Mystics 5/2
Atlanta Dream 5/1
Phoenix Mercury 5/1
The best-of-five series will begin on Sunday Aug. 26 before Game 2’s taking place on Tuesday Aug. 28. Possible eliminations are set for Friday Aug. 31 and if necessary, Game 4’s and 5’s will be played on Sept. 2 and Sept. 4 respectively.
(Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under - O/U)
(2) Atlanta vs. (3) Washington
Regular Season Meetings
July 11 – Atlanta (+8) 106 at Washington 89 (Over 164.5)
July 14 – Atlanta (+2) 80 vs. Washington 77 (Under 166)
July 31 – Washington (+5.5) 86 at Atlanta 71 (Under 163)
Current Form
-- Atlanta closed the season with a 7-2 record both SU and ATS.
-- The Dream went 4-1 at home during this span, with the lone loss coming to the Mystics on July 31.
-- Washington has only lost one game since the All-Star break. The club is 9-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in its last 10 games, with one of the wins coming against Las Vegas by forfeit.
-- The Mystics defeated Los Angeles 96-64 in the second round last Thursday, easily covering as 4 ½-point home favorites.ATS Numbers
-- Atlanta went 23-11 ATS during the regular season, the best record in the WNBA.
-- The Dream were 12-5 SU at home versus the number and 11-6 on the road.
-- Considering 2017 was a down season for the franchise, the Dream didn’t get as much respect from the books early. They club was listed as an underdog 19 times and they posted an eye-opening 14-5 ATS mark.
-- Atlanta went 14-3 ATS overall against winning clubs, going 6-2 at home and 8-1 on the road.
-- Including Thursday’s playoff win over Los Angeles, Washington has gone 19-14-1 ATS this season.
-- The Mystics weren’t as great at home versus the number (8-9) but they managed to turn a profit on the road with an 11-5-1 ATS mark.
-- As an underdog, Washington went 8-5 ATS.
-- Washington was just 10-8 vs. clubs above .500 but they were better on the road (6-4) than at home (4-4) in those games.
-- Game 1 will be played in the afternoon and possibly Game 4. Make a note that the Dream are 10-5 ATS in the daylight hours, while the Mystics are 6-5-1 versus the number.
Total Talk
-- The ‘under’ went 20-14 for Atlanta, which included a 13-4 record at home.
-- On the road, the Dream saw the ‘over’ go 10-7.
-- Washington watched the ‘under’ go 18-17 this season.
-- The Mystics went 9-9 at home while the ‘under’ held a slight edge on the road (9-8).
Playoff Notes
-- Washington has gone 3-0 both SU and ATS in its last three elimination games.
-- However, the Mystics were swept 3-0 by Minnesota in the 2017 semifinals. All three setbacks came by double digits.
-- This is the first trip to the postseason for the Dream since the 2016 playoffs. Atlanta went 1-1 both SU and ATS, winning at home before falling on the road in the second round. The ‘over’ cashed in both contests.
Stats to Watch
-- The Dream owned the third best scoring defense in the league, allowing 79.5 points per game.
-- Washington allowed 81.4 PPG on the season.
-- Atlanta led the league with 5.3 blocks per game and was ranked third in steals at 7.6 per game.
-- The Mystics are shooting 85.8 percent from the free throw line, the best mark in the WNBA.
-- The Dream only shot 74.6 percent from the stripe, which is ranked last in the league.
(1) Seattle vs. (5) Phoenix
Regular Season Meetings
May 20 – Phoenix (+2.5) 87 at Seattle 82 (Over 155.5)
May 23 – Seattle (+5.5) 87 at Phoenix 81 (Over 156.5)
July 31 – Seattle (-3.5) 102 at Phoenix 91 (Over 170.5)
Current Form
-- Including the two victories in the playoffs, the Mercury have won six straight games.
-- Only one of those wins came on the road, which occurred last Thursday in a 96-86 second round win over Connecticut.
-- Seattle concluded its regular season with an 8-1 record and they posted a 7-2 mark versus the number during that span.
ATS Numbers
-- Seattle owned a 21-12-1 ATS mark this season.
-- At home, the Storm went 8-8-1 versus the number. Seattle was a very sound investment on the road, going 13-4 ATS.
-- The Mercury have gone 22-14 ATS this season.
-- At home, Phoenix failed to turn a profit (8-10 ATS) but it was a great wager on the road with a 14-4 (78%) ATS mark.
-- Seattle was only listed as an underdog seven times and it went 4-3 ATS.
-- Phoenix has been outstanding in the ‘dog role this season, going 11-3 ATS.
-- Both the Storm (11-8 ATS) and Mercury (8-6 ATS) were solid against clubs .500 in the regular season.
-- Neither Phoenix (7-6) or Seattle (6-4-1) have boasted superb records in day games.
Total Talk
-- Seattle leaned slightly to the ‘over’ (18-16) in the regular season.
-- The ‘under’ produced a slight 10-7 edge in the Emerald City while the ’over’ posted a 11-6 mark on the road.
-- The Storm closed the season on a 3-0 ‘over’ run.
-- Phoenix has watched the ‘over’ go 21-15 this season, which includes a 2-0 mark in this year’s postseason.
-- The Mercury have been consistent to the high side at home (11-7) and on the road (10-8).
-- Phoenix has watched the ‘over’ go 8-2 in its last 10 games, which includes a run of five straight.
Playoff Notes
-- Including this year’s outcomes, the Mercury have gone 6-0 both SU and ATS in their last six elimination games of the first and second round.
-- The last two postseasons also watched Phoenix get swept 3-0 in each of their semifinal matchups. The Mercury went 1-5 ATS in those games, while the ‘over’ was 4-2.
-- Seattle has gone 0-2 in its last two trips to the postseason, losing each of its elimination games. Last season, the Storm dropped a 79-69 decision at Phoenix.
Stats to Watch
-- Seattle led the league in field goal percentage (46.8%) and was second in offensive scoring at 87.6 PPG.
-- Phoenix was ranked fourth in scoring offense (85.8 PPG).
-- Seattle only surrendered 79.7 PPG and they were ranked second in free throw attempts allowed (15.9).
-- Of the four remaining teams, the Mercury are the weakest team in terms of scoring defense (83.2 PPG).
-- The Storm (24) and Mercury (23.5) were ranked first and second in the WNBA in 3-point attempts per game.
-- Both Seattle (9) and Phoenix (8.5) were listed 1 and 2 in treys made per game as well.
-- The Mercury played the slowest pace in the WNBA, only taking 65.3 attempts per game.
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