ACC Trends and Angles

ACC · Big 12 · Big East · Pac-12 · SEC

Venue: Barclays Center - Brooklyn, New York

Overall Betting Results
Favorites/Underdogs: 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS
Over/Under: 8-5

Saturday, March 10

Finals

Matchup	Records	Skinny	Projection
vs.	No. 6 North Carolina Overall: 25-9 SU, 19-13-1 ATS Totals: 18-15 O/U No. 1 Virginia Overall: 30-2 SU, 19-9-1 ATS Totals: 9-20 O/U	No. 6 North Carolina vs. No. 1 Virginia (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET) The Tar Heels might be playing their best stretch of basketball this season, winning and covering each of their first three games in the ACC Tournament. Their revenge tour continues against Virginia, a team they fell against in Charlottesville by a a 61-49 count back on Jan. 6. UNC lost two in a row to Miami and Duke to close out their season, only to beat them in the tournament. Can they complete the trifecta against the Hoos? The Cavaliers are in the running for the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament, and they likely will secure that spot with an ACC championship. These teams met in the 2016 championship, with the Tar Heels winning 61-57 in Washington D.C. These teams also met for all the marbles in 1994, with Jerry Stackhouse leading the Heels to a 73-66 win to cut down the nets. They also met in the title game in 1982, and it was the same result. Virginia has snap years of misery against the Tar Heels with a victory in their fourth try against them in the ACC final. Virginia has appeared in the title game in three of the past five seasons, winning behind Joe 'Buckets' Harris in 2014 in Greensboro.	North Carolina 59 Virginia 63

Friday, March 9

Semifinals

Matchup	Records	Skinny	Projection
vs.	No. 4 Clemson Overall: 23-8 SU, 16-12 ATS Totals: 14-14 O/U No. 1 Virginia Overall: 29-2 SU, 19-8-1 ATS Totals: 8-20 O/U	No. 4 Clemson vs. No. 1 Virginia (ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET) The Cavaliers pulled away from Louisville on Thursday, 75-58 to easily cash as seven-point favorites. Virginia has reached the ACC semifinals for the first time since 2016, when the Cavaliers eventually lost to North Carolina in the championship. UVA is seeking its first ACC tournament title since 2014, as the Wahoos have won this tournament only twice in school history. The Tigers have won three of their last four games following a three-game skid, capped off by Thursday's 90-82 shootout victory over Boston College. Clemson looks for a better performance this time around against Virginia as the Tigers were whipped by the Cavaliers in Charlottesville in late January, 61-36. Virginia has captured seven straight meetings with Clemson since 2013, while these teams are meeting in the conference tournament for the first time since 2004.	Clemson 56 Virginia 65
vs.	No. 6 North Carolina Overall: 24-9 SU, 18-13-1 ATS Totals: 18-14 O/U No. 2 Duke Overall: 26-6 SU, 20-10 ATS Totals: 16-13 O/U	No. 6 North Carolina vs. No. 2 Duke (ESPN, 9:30 p.m. ET) These two teams know each other fairly well as they look to break a 1-1 series tie this season. North Carolina rallied past Duke in Chapel Hill, 82-78 in February, while the Blue Devils bounced the Tar Heels last Saturday, 74-64 as 7.5-point home favorites. Duke outlasted North Carolina in last season's ACC tournament as four-point 'dogs, 93-83 in the semifinals, as the Blue Devils have covered five straight conference tournament contests. The Tar Heels and Blue Devils both rolled to victories on Thursday. North Carolina overcame an early 14-0 deficit to rout Miami, 82-65, while Duke had no problems with Notre Dame in an 88-70 blowout. The Blue Devils had their six-game UNDER streak snapped on Thursday, but have allowed 70 points or less in eight consecutive games since yielding 82 points to UNC on February 8.	North Carolina 81 Duke 78

Thursday, March 8

Quarterfinals

Matchup	Records	Skinny	Projection
vs.	No. 9 Louisville Overall: 20-12 SU, 16-13-1 ATS Totals: 16-12-2 O/U No. 1 Virginia Overall: 28-2 SU, 18-8-1 ATS Totals: 7-20 O/U	No. 9 Louisville vs. No. 1 Virginia (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET) The Cavaliers and Cardinals are meeting for the second time in a week as Virginia pulled off the epic rally in the final seconds to shock Louisville, 67-66 as four-point road favorites. Virginia swept Louisville in the regular season, while winning four straight meetings with the Cardinals. UVA dropped only one conference game this season, but owns a 2-4 ATS record the last six contests. The Cardinals advanced to the quarterfinals by eliminating another bubble team in Florida State on Wednesday, 82-74 to snap a two-game skid. Louisville has not won more than one game in the ACC tournament since joining the conference in 2015.	Louisville 62 Virginia 67
vs.	No. 12 Boston College Overall: 19-14 SU, 15-12 ATS Totals: 17-9-1 O/U No. 4 Clemson Overall: 22-8 SU, 15-12 ATS Totals: 13-14 O/U	No. 12 Boston College vs. No. 4 Clemson (ESPN, 2:30 p.m. ET) The Eagles are on a roll in the ACC tournament by beating Georgia Tech and N.C. State in the first two games. In Wednesday's 91-87 victory over the Wolfpack, BC shot 50% from the floor, while putting up at least 87 points in both ACC tournament wins. Boston College fell short against Clemson early in conference play, 74-70, but managed a cover as 5.5-point home favorites. The Tigers dropped four of their final six regular season games, including a 55-52 defeat at Syracuse last Saturday. Clemson struggled on the road within ACC play this season from a pointspread perspective by covering only two of nine times away from Littlejohn Coliseum, while losing three straight road games.	Boston College 81 Clemson 85
vs.	No. 10 Notre Dame Overall: 20-13 SU, 13-16 ATS Totals: 14-14 O/U No. 2 Duke Overall: 25-6 SU, 19-10 ATS Totals: 16-13 O/U	No. 10 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Duke (ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET) The Blue Devils closed the season strong with a 6-1 SU/ATS record with the only defeat coming in the final seconds at Virginia Tech. Duke is riding a six-game UNDER streak, while allowing each opponent during this run to 64 points or fewer. The Blue Devils are seeking their second consecutive ACC tournament title, as Duke topped Notre Dame in last season's championship game, 75-69. The Fighting Irish rallied past Virginia Tech on Wednesday, 71-65 to advance to the ACC quarterfinals for the fourth straight season. Since an 0-5 ATS run in late January, the Irish have covered six of their last 10 games, while winning four of their past five overall.	Notre Dame 65 Duke 77
vs.	No. 6 North Carolina Overall: 23-9 SU, 17-13-1 ATS Totals: 18-13 O/U No. 3 Miami Overall: 22-8 SU, 11-14 ATS Totals: 13-12 O/U	No. 6 North Carolina vs. No. 3 Miami (ESPN, 9:30 p.m. ET) The Tar Heels look to avenge a buzzer-beating loss to Miami last week in Chapel Hill as UNC advanced to the quarterfinals by blowing out Syracuse on Wednesday. North Carolina ended a three-game ATS skid by covering as 7.5-point favorites in a 78-59 rout of the Orange, while facing Miami in the ACC tournament for the second straight year. Last season, the Tar Heels ripped up the Hurricanes, 78-53 by outscoring Miami in the second half, 44-24. The Hurricanes are coming off three straight close victories over Boston College, North Carolina, and Virginia Tech in the final seconds to vault to the third seed in the ACC tournament. In fact, each of Miami's last four wins have come by three points or less, as the 'Canes are 3-9 ATS the last 12 games overall. In spite of being listed as an underdog in this contest, the 'Canes will be looking to end an 0-7 ATS run in their previous seven ACC tournament games.	North Carolina 80 Miami 68

Wednesday, March 7

Second Round

Matchup	Records	Skinny	Projection
vs.	No. 9 Louisville Overall: 19-12 SU, 15-13-1 ATS Totals: 15-12-2 O/U No. 8 Florida State Overall: 20-10 SU, 15-12-1 ATS Totals: 16-12 O/U	No. 9 Louisville vs. No. 8 Florida State (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET) The Cardinals stumbled down the stretch by losing four of the final five games, including the heart-breaking defeat to top-ranked Virginia on March 1 at the buzzer. The four losses came to quality competition, including double-digit defeats to North Carolina and Duke. Louisville started ACC play at 6-2 before a 3-7 finish which has put the Cardinals on the tournament bubble. The Seminoles need a solid showing to impress the tournament committee as they dropped their final three road games by double-digits at Clemson, N.C. State, and Notre Dame. Florida State snapped a six-game ATS skid by barely covering in the season finale victory over Boston College. The 'Noles and Cardinals split a pair of regular season meetings with the road team winning each time, as FSU blew a 13-point halftime lead in a 73-69 setback in Tallahassee on January 10.	Louisville 74 Florida State 79
vs.	No. 12 Boston College Overall: 18-14 SU, 14-12 ATS Totals: 16-9-1 O/U No. 5 N.C. State Overall: 21-10 SU, 13-11 ATS Totals: 13-11 O/U	No. 12 Boston College vs. No. 5 N.C. State (ESPN, 2:30 p.m. ET) The Eagles stayed alive in the ACC tournament by holding off Georgia Tech on Tuesday, 87-77. Boston College improved to 5-3 ATS the last eight games, while advancing past the opening round of the conference tournament for the first time since 2015. The Eagles were blown out by the Wolfpack in Raleigh last month, 82-66 as five-point underdogs, while getting held to 4-of-25 shooting from three-point range and 4-of-12 from the foul line. The Wolfpack are seeking their first appearance in the Big Dance since 2015 as they head into the ACC tournament on a 5-1 SU/ATS run. N.C. State took care of business at home with victories over Boston College, Florida State, and Louisville, while the only defeat came at Georgia Tech on March 1. The Wolfpack have performed well in their ACC tournament opener over the years by posting a 5-1 mark the last six seasons, including a 78-57 blowout of Boston College in 2012.	Boston College 75 N.C. State 78
vs.	No. 10 Notre Dame Overall: 19-13 SU, 12-16 ATS Totals: 14-13 O/U No. 7 Virginia Tech Overall: 21-10 SU, 17-10 ATS Totals: 14-13 O/U	No. 10 Notre Dame vs. No. 7 Virginia Tech (ESPN2, 7:00 p.m. ET) The Fighting Irish dodged a major bullet as they held off Pittsburgh in the opening round, 67-64, sending the Panthers to their 19th consecutive loss. Notre Dame improved to 6-3 in its last nine games since a seven-game skid, although it failed to cash as hefty 17-point favorites on Tuesday. The Irish lost at home to the Hokies in late January as three-point favorites, 80-75, the first time Virginia Tech defeated Notre Dame since both teams joined the ACC. The Hokies were squeezed by Miami in the season finale, 69-68 to fall to the 7th seed in the ACC tournament, but managed a cover as 3.5-point underdogs. Virginia Tech bounced back off losses this season by posting a 7-2 record, which included victories over Duke and North Carolina in this situation. Since losing at home to Florida State in January, the Hokies own a solid 9-3 ATS record in the last 12 games.	Notre Dame 71 Virginia Tech 80
vs.	No. 11 Syracuse Overall: 20-12 SU, 14-16 ATS Totals: 14-16 O/U No. 6 North Carolina Overall: 22-9 SU, 16-13-1 ATS Totals: 18-12-1 O/U	No. 11 Syracuse vs. No. 6 North Carolina (ESPN2, 9:30 p.m. ET) The Orange took a step closer towards an at-large bid in the NCAA tournament by knocking off Wake Forest in the opening round of the ACC tournament, 73-64. Syracuse seeks its second three-game winning streak in ACC play, while trying to avenge a 78-74 defeat at North Carolina as 4.5-point underdogs on February 21. The Orange picked up their first ever ACC tournament win on Wednesday in four tries, while meeting up with UNC in the postseason for the first time since the 2016 Final Four. The Tar Heels closed out the season with consecutive losses to Miami and Duke to fall to the sixth seed in the ACC tournament. UNC posted a 4-5 record away from Chapel Hill in ACC action, while going 2-4 ATS as a road favorite against conference foes. The Heels have won six of their previous seven ACC tournament openers, while seeking their first ACC tourney title since 2016.	Syracuse 75 North Carolina 81

Tuesday, March 6

Opening Round

Matchup	Records	Skinny	Projection
vs.	No. 13 Georgia Tech Overall: 13-18 SU, 14-13 ATS Totals: 13-14 O/U No. 12 Boston College Overall: 17-14 SU, 13-12 ATS Totals: 15-9-1 O/U	No. 13 Georgia Tech vs. No. 12 Boston College (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET) The Yellow Jackets started and closed ACC play strong, but the middle portion was the problem. Tech began 3-1, which included home victories over Miami and Notre Dame, while topping N.C. State and Wake Forest to finish conference play. However, the Ramblin' Wreck went on a 1-11 run following the 3-1 start, but are currently on a 4-0 ATS run. Tech squandered a double-digit lead in its only meeting with Boston College this season, falling to the Eagles in overtime in early February, 80-72. The Eagles had been the doormat of the ACC for several seasons before posting a 7-11 record. To put it in perspective, the Eagles won six conference in the previous three seasons combined. BC started ACC play with a bang by upsetting Duke in December as 15-point home underdogs, 89-84, while compiling an 11-8 ATS record in conference play. The Eagles struggled down the stretch by losing four of five games, but BC is seeking its third ACC tournament win since 2012 as the previous two victories both came against Georgia Tech.	Georgia Tech 67 Boston College 65
vs.	No. 15 Pittsburgh Overall: 8-23 SU, 14-12 ATS Totals: 5-21 O/U No. 10 Notre Dame Overall: 18-13 SU, 12-15 ATS Totals: 14-12 O/U	No. 15 Pittsburgh vs. No. 10 Notre Dame (ESPN2, 2:30 p.m. ET) The Panthers haven't won a game since 2017 as Pittsburgh finished an incredible 0-18 in the ACC. Pitt put together nearly a brand new roster this season, resulting in their struggles as the Panthers posted a 9-9 ATS record within the conference. The Panthers and Fighting Irish met only once, but it came in the regular season finale in South Bend as Notre Dame pulled away from Pitt, 73-56 as 19-point favorites. The Fighting Irish suffered through injuries early in ACC season as they started 3-0 in conference play prior to a seven-game skid. Notre Dame won only three of nine ACC games away from South Bend, but the Irish have won the opening game in the ACC tournament in each of the past three years.	Pittsburgh 62 Notre Dame 75
vs.	No. 14 Wake Forest Overall: 11-19 SU, 9-18-1 ATS Totals: 13-15 O/U No. 11 Syracuse Overall: 19-12 SU, 13-16 ATS Totals: 13-16 O/U	No. 14 Wake Forest vs. No. 11 Syracuse (ESPNU, 7:00 p.m. ET) The Demon Deacons split their first two ACC games, including a 73-67 come-from-behind win over Syracuse in early January. Wake Forest would win only three of its final 16 conference games, which included a victory over Pittsburgh, who finished 0-18 in the ACC. During its 3-13 stretch to close the season, Wake covered three times, including a 2-9 ATS mark as an underdog. The Orange needs a solid showing in the ACC tournament for a shot at an at-large bid in the NCAA tournament. Syracuse edged Clemson in the season finale to end a three-game skid, while also beating Miami, Louisville, and Virginia Tech in conference action. The Orange avenged the loss in Winston-Salem to knock off Wake Forest at the Carrier Dome in mid-February, 78-70 as seven-point favorites. Syracuse has never won an ACC tournament by posting an 0-3 record since joining the league.	Wake Forest 67 Syracuse 74

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