Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:54 AM

NCAA Basketball Best Bets for Wednesday March 4, 2020 - SEC and ACC

Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets

Couldn't get a bounce to go my way on Saturday, as the two plays I had for the day ended up coming up short. For Utah, it was falling in overtime to California, as the Utes just never found a high enough level of consistency throughout that game and paid for it in the end.

The other loss came thanks to Alabama, winning by four points as -5.5 chalk, a result that only rubbed more salt into the wound. Yet, as stinging as losses in those types of fashions can be, they also serve as a reminder that you do need a bit of luck at times in this game. One more shot made by Utah in regulation, and one more shot made by Alabama, and that 0-2 day would be completely flipped.

Anyways, the final week of the regular season is already going on, and as Power Five programs jockey for positioning in their upcoming conference tournaments, everyone wants to finish the regular season on as high of a note as possible. Tonight there are two teams that are at home that fit that bill, as who knows how far they'd help their chances of getting into the NCAA Tournament with emphatic victories tonight.

SEC Matchup
LSU at Arkansas

Betting Odds: Arkansas -3, Over/Under 153.5

Date: March 4, 2020
TV/Time: SEC Network, 7:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Bud Walton Arena
Location: Fayetteville, Arkansas

After dropping five in a row the past few weeks, and entering tonight having gone 2-6 SU in their last eight games overall, the damage might already be done for the Razorbacks this year. However, a strong finish to the season this week, followed by a strong showing in the SEC Tournament, and things could be back on for Arkansas' postseason potential. It's all got to start with a home win tonight against LSU though.

LSU has developed a bit of a limp as well as they reach the finish line of the regular season, as a 3-5 SU record in their last eight games overall – and a 3-6 ATS record in their last nine – has put this team on the bad end of the market recently. Given that they are on a 1-4 SU run in road games as well, tonight's not exactly the best spot to be shouting “Geaux Tigers” in my opinion.

But yet, the market appears to be going with the simplistic approach typically reserved for recreational bettors. That is, just go out there and take the team that's got the better overall record and catching points. LSU is getting nearly 70% of the support early today, and yet this point spread opened up at -2.5 at some places. That should tell you right there that backing LSU tonight comes with some concerns.

Yes, recent form on either side isn't exactly great, and LSU did win the first meeting (79-77) so it's not like expecting something different is that far out of the realm of possibilities. It's not. But that first LSU win also came on January 8th, when LSU was arguably at the height of their powers this season, with that win being #3 in what would turn out to be a season-long 10-game winning streak for LSU. They are far from being that caliber of team right now, and having the spread be a nine-point swing relative to that first meeting suggests that.

Furthermore, Arkansas is by far the more desperate team, as they are the ones more in need of improved seeding for next week's SEC Tournament. In fact, LSU's really got nothing to play for in that regard, they are all but assured to finish in the Top 4 in the conference and get the requisite byes because of it. LSU's NCAA Tournament berth is likely just a formality as well, and if LSU plays this final week of the regular season like a team that's already content with where they sit and what lies ahead, I'd want nothing to do with them because of it.

Who knows how far a win for Arkansas could take them in the coming days, but every run as got to start somewhere, and for Arkansas, it's got to be tonight. LSU has not brought anything close to their best effort on the road in some time, and with LSU on a 0-4 ATS run off a SU win, and 1-4 ATS after covering a spread, Arkansas and their desperation find a way to get things done.

SEC Best Bet: Arkansas -3

ACC Matchup
Florida State at Notre Dame

Betting Odds: Florida State -1.5, Over/Under 147

Date: March 4, 2020
TV/Time: ESPN2, 9:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Purcell Pavilion
Location: South Bend, Indiana Considering Florida State is battling for an ACC regular season title this week, this line has to be a bit surprising to some. Like the simplicity in just taking the points with the team with the better record in LSU's case, Florida State is by far the better team in this matchup, and for most, this line's got to seem quite short on the Seminoles. After all, you are getting a Florida State team that's more talented, has got plenty to play for at essentially a pick'em price. No brainer right?

Well, considering this number opened up at -2.5 basically across the board and has moved Notre Dame's way already I wouldn't be so sure about that. The betting percentage numbers at show about a 75/25 split in favor of Florida State on the ML, and about a 60/40 split in favor of the Seminoles on the spread. Nothing too egregious there, but the line move has still favored the Irish.

Florida State may have plenty to play for, but this team has made all their hay at home this season. At 6-5 SU away from home, the Seminoles are simply average at best on the highway, as the last four times they've been road favorites of -3.5 or less, Florida State has walked away with a 2-2 SU and ATS record in those games. That's the definition of average to me, and with only one more home game left for Florida State this year, I'm not sure their immediate future is going to be anywhere near as rosy as their fans want to believe.

Notre Dame is quite average themselves in terms of the big picture narrative, but they've won five straight home games – all vs ACC foes – since losing 85-84 in their first meeting with FSU, and I do believe the Irish will get their revenge tonight. The Irish are on a 4-1 ATS run in their last five against a winning team, and the fact that the early morning action has gone the way it has on this game, moving the line as it has, that tells me most of what I need to know.

Notre Dame wins this game outright.

ACC Best Bet: Notre Dame +1.5

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