Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:48 AM

Kansas State vs. Iowa State Predictions, Odds

  • December 15, 2020
  • By Thom Cunningham

The Kansas State Wildcats try to turn their early season struggles around, visiting the Iowa State Cyclones. Tip-off from James H. Hilton Coliseum is set for 9 p.m. (ET) on ESPNU.


Kansas State-Iowa State Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: Iowa State -9.5
  • Money-Line: TBD
  • Total: 137.5

Odds Subject to Change

Iowa State enters this conference home game as a near double-digit favorite, taking on the Kansas State Wildcats who are struggling to say the least. Both schools are a combined 0-8 ATS this season, so perhaps looking at the 137.5 point total is a better market.

However, Kansas State has shown nothing to earn conviction in wagering on this year. The Wildcats have lost four games, one of which was to DII school Fort Hays. The Cyclones are on a two-game losing streak themselves, falling to South Dakota State and powerhouse Iowa. With both teams having yet to cover the spread this season, something has to give with a 9.5-point spread.


Betting Analysis – Kansas State Wildcats

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 2-4
  • ATS: 0-5
  • SU - Home: 2-4
  • SU - Away: 0-0
  • O/U: 2-3

It's tough to find a reason to take Kansas State in this game. The only point of debate for siding with the Wildcats is the fact that Iowa State is 0-3 ATS themselves. Regardless, the Wildcats escaped by one point against Milwaukee after losing four of its last five games.

As mentioned, one of those losses was to a DII school by 13 points. All four losses suffered by Kansas State has been by double-digit points, so it's a bit surprising to see a -9.5-point spread for the home team Iowa State. Perhaps oddsmakers are sold on the lack of defense from both schools, believe that will keep it close.

Kansas State has one of the worst defenses in the country, if it was evident from allowing 81 points to Fort Hays. The Wildcats rank 210th in points allowed per game (73) and have the 291st ranked defensive rating at 111.5.

The Wildcats actually do certain things well. They pass the ball, ranking 88th nationally with 79 total steals. They also get to the free throw line (114 attempts ranks 79th nationally), while hitting three-point shots (45 made ranks 74th nationally). The issue is defense and free throws.

Kansas State only has 26 total steals this season, which ranks 205th nationally. Despite getting to the charity stripe a lot, the Wildcats miss a lot of free throws. Kansas State currently shoots 64% from the free throw line, which ranks 254th nationally. If Kansas State can force more turnovers and make their free throws, then they might cover.

Betting Analysis – Iowa State Cyclones

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 1-2
  • ATS: 0-3
  • SU - Home: 1-1
  • SU - Away: 0-1
  • O/U: 1-2

Iowa State enters this game yet to cover a spread this season, but it seems a home game against Kansas State is a great bet to consider that streak snapping. Kansas State has too many trends working against to consider taking, but the 0-3 ATS for Iowa State is concerning.

The Wildcats have lost the first half in multiple prime-time games, which is a bet worth considering. Again though, Iowa State has issues starting off games on a good note. They usually come out cold, which includes a game against Arkansas-Pine Bluff earlier this season. However, the Cyclones looked good against Iowa in the first half and competed well until the second half.

Don't expect that to occur against Kansas State, who don't have a top three offense or a Wooden Award leading candidate. There is no real reason to shy away from Iowa State playing well in both halves here, regardless of past ATS results this season. The more worrisome trend lies in Kansas State's corner, so use their struggles and the Iowa game as a measuring stick for taking the Cyclones.

Inside the Stats – Kansas State Wildcats

  • PS/G: 65.3 (265th)
  • PA/G: 73 (210th)
  • Off Rtg: 99.7 (189th)
  • Def Rtg: 111.5 (291st)

Inside the Stats – Iowa State Cyclones

  • PS/G: 75 (146th)
  • PA/G: 79.7 (274th)
  • Off Rtg: 105.1 (126th)
  • Def Rtg: 111.7 (292nd)

Key Players to Watch

  • KST - Mike McGuirl (14.5 PPG)
  • KST - Nijel Pack (10.3 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 4.3 APG)
  • IWST - Jalen Coleman-Lands (15.3 PPG, 4.3 RPG)
  • IWST - Javan Johnson (13.7 PPG, 4 RPG, 5 APG)
  • IWST - Rasir Bolton (14.7 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 5.7 APG)

Kansas State-Iowa State Predictions

Don't let the defensive statistics sway you from taking Iowa State to cover anything less than a 10-point spread. The Cyclones are coming off a game against one of the best, if not the best offensive team nationally in Iowa. The 274th ranked points allowed and 292nd rating should be taken with a grain of salt.

The Wildcats are much more concerning, when looking at their resume. The opponents Kansas State has allowed loads of points to include Drake, UNLV, Milwaukee and Fort Hays. Iowa State gave up 105 to Iowa and 71 to South Dakota State, so the difference in opponents and points allowed is substantial when comparing defensive rankings.

Despite the 0-3 ATS record, there's no real reason to shy away from taking Iowa State at -9.5 or lower. If you are really concerned about the 0-3 record (even though Kansas State is 0-5), then take Iowa State to win the second half. It seems very unlikely the Cyclones will lose the second half at home, something the Wildcats have lost in 10 straight games.

  • Score Prediction: Iowa State 75 Kansas State 64
  • Best Bets: Iowa State 2H
  • Best Bets: Iowa State -9.5

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