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Virginia vs. Notre Dame Predictions, Odds

 

  • December 30, 2020
  • By David Schwab
  • VegasInsider.com

The No. 23 Virginia Cavaliers head to South Bend for Wednesday’s ACC clash against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Tip-off from Purcell Pavilion is set for 6 p.m. (ET) on the ACC Network.

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WHERE TO BET VIRGINIA-NOTRE DAME

Virginia-Notre Dame Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: Virginia -4
  • Money-Line: TBD
  • Total: 127.5

Odds Subject to Change

The Cavaliers come into this game as four-point road favorites with the betting line on the total set at 127.5 points. Virginia opens its ACC schedule at 4-2 straight-up in non-conference matchups. It is an even 3-3 against the spread and 3-3 as well on the closing total line.

Over their past 10 games against Notre Dame, the Cavaliers have won nine SU with the total staying UNDER in seven of those meetings. However, Virginia has failed to cover ATS in four of the last five meetings between the two.

Notre Dame opened conference play with a 10-point loss to Duke as a two-point underdog on Dec. 16. This is part of a 3-4 record SU while going just 2-5 ATS. The total has gone OVER in three of its last five contests.

The Irish are 8-3 SU in their last 11 home games and the total has stayed UNDER in five of their last six ACC games. They are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games played in December.

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Betting Analysis – Virginia Cavaliers

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 4-2
  • ATS: 3-3
  • SU - Home: 4-1
  • SU - Away: 0-1
  • O/U: 3-3

As a national power, Virginia suffered a hard dose of reality in this past Saturday’s 98-75 loss to No. 1 Gonzaga as a 7 ½-point underdog. The Cavaliers were buried by an avalanche of three-point shots.

The trio of forward Sam Hauser (12.8 points), guard Trey Murphy III (12.2 points) and forward Jay Huff (11.2 points) have provided the bulk of the scoring this season. Huff also leads to team in rebounds with 6.2 a game.

Overall, the Cavaliers are scoring an average of 74.5 points per game and shooting 49.5% from the field. They have converted on 37.1% of their shots from three-point range.

Giving up 98 points the last time out raised Virginia’s normally stout points-allowed average to 61.3. With just 33.1 total rebounds a game, 28.8 are coming on the defensive end of the court.

Betting Analysis – Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 3-4
  • ATS: 2-5
  • SU - Home: 2-3
  • SU - Away: 1-1
  • O/U: 4-3

Notre Dame’s lineup runs five deep with double-digit scorers led by guard Prentiss Hub with 16.4 PPG. He also leads the team in assists for four a game.

Guard Dane Goodwin is a close second with 16.1 PPH while connecting on 51.9% of his shots from the field. He is shooting an impressive 44% from three-point range. Forward Nate Laszewski is adding 14.6 points and a team-high 8.4 rebounds a game.

The Irish match the Cavaliers in scoring with 74.4 PPG and they are shooting 45.5 percent from the field and a solid 40.9% from beyond the three-point line.

The defensive is giving up 76.6 PPG with 33.9 rebounds a game. It allowed 88 points in a 10- point loss to Purdue on Dec. 19.

Inside the Stats – Virginia Cavaliers

  • PS/G: 74.5 (154th)
  • PA/G: 61.3 (34th)
  • Off Rtg: 118.6 (17th)
  • Def Rtg: 97.6 (185th)

Inside the Stats – Notre Dame Fighting Irish

  • PS/G: 74.4 (156th)
  • PA/G: 76.6 (274th)
  • Off Rtg: 110.1 (63rd)
  • Def Rtg: 113.3 (319th)

Key Players to Watch

  • UVA - Sam Hauser (12.8 PPG, 5.8 RPG)
  • UVA - Jay Huff (11.2 PPG, RPG 6.2)
  • ND - Prentiss Hubb (16.4 PPG, 4 APG)
  • ND - Nate Laszewski (14.6 PPG, 8.4 RPG)

Virginia-Notre Dame Predictions

Virginia has not been overly impressive through its first six games. Issues with COVID-19 have impacted the team’s consistency the past few weeks. Inspired by the lopsided loss to the top team in the nation, the Cavaliers should be able to bounce right back by covering the points with a road win on Wednesday.

The lean on betting the total line is towards the UNDER. I am expecting a much stronger effort on defense by Virginia to keep Notre Dame’s top shooters in check. I also expect the Cavaliers to slow down the pace of this game to further impact the final score.

  • Score Prediction: Virginia 68 Notre Dame 58
  • Best Bets: Virginia -4
  • Best Bets: UNDER

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