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Missouri vs. Arkansas Predictions, Odds

 

  • January 2, 2020
  • By Thom Cunningham
  • VegasInsider.com

The Missouri Tigers look to shake off a recent home loss, traveling to Fayetteville to take on the undefeated Arkansas Razorbacks. The early conference game is set for a noon (ET) tip, from the Bud Walton Arena on CBS.

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WHERE TO BET MISSOURI-ARKANSAS

Missouri-Arkansas Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: Arkansas -7
  • Money-Line: TBD
  • Total: 146.5

Odds Subject to Change

Arkansas enters this home game as a -7-point favorite, yet to lose in the 2021 season, while Missouri is coming off a blowout loss to Tennessee. The Missouri loss was an ugly one, over before it started as the Vols outscored the Tigers by 20 points.

The devastating loss marks Missouri's first of the season, as both teams are a combined 15-1 SU. Missouri is 1-0 on the road, while Arkansas is 8-0 when playing at home. The point total is set at 146.5, which could go either way.

Missouri is 3-4 on the O/U, while Arkansas is 5-3. This is a big statement game for both teams, whether Missouri can rebound after a loss while Arkansas is looking for its first signature win.

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Betting Analysis – Missouri Tigers

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 6-1
  • ATS: 4-3
  • SU - Home: 5-1
  • SU - Away: 1-0
  • O/U: 3-4

It's tough to take Missouri in this game, mainly because they were exposed at home to a very good Tennessee team. The Tigers now hit the road and face a team full of conviction, and winners of eight straight at home.

If the Tigers expect to win this early tip-time game, they will need better offensive production from all their players especially Xavier Pinson. Pinson struggled mightily against Tennessee, dropping his point per game average to under 14. Both Mark Smith and Dru Smith also need to play better, or Missouri is in for another long day.

There are a lot of stats that stand out from Missouri's last game against Tennessee, including a woeful 74.6 offensive efficiency rating (averages 102.7 this season). Missouri shot under 40% for effective field goal percentage, had a 25.9% turnover percentage and only grabbed 24% of offensive rebounds.

Basically, all these stats indicate poor shot selections, sloppy possessions and absolutely no fight on the glass. This formula will fail against Arkansas, so looking at numbers the name that needs to first step up is actually senior Jeremiah Tilmon. Tilmon averages 7.3 rebounds per game, which is the most for Missouri.

If Missouri wants to even have a shot at beating Arkansas, they need possessions - which begins with Tilmon on the glass. From there, Missouri will have to iron the turnover and poor shot selection wrinkles. If Tilmon can just give Missouri enough opportunities on offense (by rebounding), Missouri may not only cover, but win the game.

It starts with Tilmon, and if he struggles then expect Arkansas' dominant rebounding to take this game over.

Betting Analysis – Arkansas Razorbacks

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 9-0
  • ATS: 5-2-1
  • SU - Home: 8-0
  • SU - Away: 1-0
  • O/U: 5-3

If you're not familiar with Arkansas, it's time to educate yourself. This team is 9-0, which is mainly attributed to a lackluster schedule thus far. Arkansas' most difficult opponent so far is Auburn, who the Razorbacks beat by 12 on the road. Wins over North Texas and Abilene Christian (two top of their conference teams) isn't terrible, but they're not signatures wins.

This game is the make or break for Arkansas, whether or not their nine-game run is legit or not. Eric Musselman is a terrific coach, showcasing his ability to both recruit and utilize talent while at Nevada. Musselman teams usually play both sides of the ball well, particularly on offense.

Arkansas has the 10th-most points scored per game in the nation, along with the 8th-most efficient offense as well. They also allow just 64.2 points per game (ranks 59th), while posting an 85.5 defensive efficiency rating (ranks 23rd). Despite the lack of opponents, Arkansas plays with a ton of conviction and efficiency on both sides of the court.

They also rebound very well, ranking fifth nationally in rebounds per game. This is why Tilmon's performance is so big for Missouri, because Arkansas will live on the glass and control possessions/pace of play.

While Moses Moody, JD Notae, Desi Sills and Jalen Tate are scoring buckets, both Justin Smith and Connor Vanover are getting rebounds. If Moody can contribute to the glass game with Smith and Vanover, this should be an Arkansas win. Missouri won't make it easy, as Moody is also the youngest player starting for either school.

Inside the Stats – Missouri Tigers

  • PS/G: 71.9 (196th)
  • PA/G: 66.4 (101st)
  • Off Rtg: 102.7 (159th)
  • Def Rtg: 94.9 (133rd)

Inside the Stats – Arkansas Razorbacks

  • PS/G: 90.8 (10th)
  • PA/G: 64.2 (59th)
  • Off Rtg: 120.9 (8th)
  • Def Rtg: 85.5 (23rd)

Key Players to Watch

  • MIZZ - Xavier Pinson (13.9 PPG)
  • MIZZ - Mark Smith (12.7 PPG)
  • ARK - Moses Moody (16.8 PPG, 5.7 RPG)
  • ARK - JD Notae (15 PPG)

Missouri-Arkansas Predictions

This is a very difficult game to wager on, as the spread can go either way. Arkansas at home seems likely here, although its tough to gauge which Missouri team will come out to play. Even in the Tennessee defeat, the point total was still low-scoring overall.

With an uncertain point spread, the point total going UNDER seems to be a fine play here at 146.5. If you must pick a winner, lean with the home Razorbacks looking to prove themselves worthy of college basketball's national attention.

If you buy into Arkansas' 10th-ranked point per game production and eager to prove the nation how good they are at home, the seven-point spread should push at minimum.

  • Score Prediction: Arkansas 78 Missouri 68
  • Best Bets: UNDER
  • Best Bets: Arkansas

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