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Notre Dame vs. UNC Predictions, Odds

 

  • January 2, 2020
  • By Thom Cunningham
  • VegasInsider.com

The North Carolina Tar Heels look to get back on track, hosting an impromptu conference game against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Tip is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. (ET) from the Dean E. Smith Center on the ACC Network.

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WHERE TO BET NOTRE DAME-UNC

Notre Dame-UNC Betting Odds

  • Spread: UNC -9
  • Money-Line: TBD
  • Total: 146.5

Odds Subject to Change

UNC opens as a large -9-point favorite against the Fighting Irish, covering in three of nine games this season. Notre Dame has failed to cover six of its last eight games, so the ATS will be tricky to say the least.

The point total is set at 146.5, which UNC has gone UNDER in seven of its last nine games. Notre Dame is much more even in the O/U market, going 4-4 on the year.

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Betting Analysis – Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 3-5
  • ATS: 2-6
  • SU - Home: 2-4
  • SU - Away: 1-1
  • O/U: 4-4

It seems to be another long year for Mike Brey and the Fighting Irish. Youth was the school's excuse for lackluster seasons lately, but three juniors now lead the Notre Dame charge.

Prentiss Hubb is one of the top scorers for Notre Dame, averaging 14.9 points per game and leads the team in assists with 4.5 per game. Dane Goodwin and Nate Laszewski also average 14 points or more per game, while the Fighting Irish have three other players average eight or more points per game.

Notre Dame has the seventh-best free throw percentage (81%) in the nation and the 47th-most made three-pointers per game (9.4). So what's the issue? Defense. Notre Dame has an awful 113.2 defensive rating which ranks 321st out of 336 schools.

They give up more points per game than they score, conceding at least 80 in two of their last three road games. The one game they didn't concede 80 was to a reeling Kentucky club. Notre Dame can compete, and even cover the large spread. Winning, however, is a tall task unless the defense cleans up its act.

Betting Analysis – UNC Tar Heels

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 5-4
  • ATS: 3-5-1
  • SU - Home: 2-1
  • SU - Away: 3-3
  • O/U: 2-7

UNC is a much better wager at home than on the road, dropping its most recent road games to N.C. State and Georgia Tech. The Tar Heels have played a lot of road games already, seven away from Chapel Hill. Coming home against a team they should beat, expect a much more relaxed UNC club.

Armando Bacot now leads the team in points per game with 12.2, as Garrison Brooks has dropped to 11.2. Both players average seven or more rebounds per game, and are the 'jack-of-all-trades' for this UNC team.

UNC's biggest set back is the age, featuring three freshman who average at or close to a double-digit point total. Caleb Love , RJ Davis and Day'Ron Sharpe are all still finding their way - which is going to be scary when they fully develop. UNC has depth, young talent still learning and a veteran leader in Brooks to lean on.

UNC averages the 41st-most blocks per game (4.8), ninth-most rebounds per game (44.4) and 48th-most two-pointers made per game (22). UNC plays better from inside-out, so avoiding a three-point contest with the Fighting Irish will be key for a victory.

Inside the Stats – Notre Dame Fighting Irish

  • PS/G: 72.2 (185th)
  • PA/G: 75.2 (268th)
  • Off Rtg: 108.6 (82nd)
  • Def Rtg: 113.2 (321st)

Inside the Stats – UNC Tar Heels

  • PS/G: 73.6 (158th)
  • PA/G: 68.6 (153rd)
  • Off Rtg: 101.7 (176th)
  • Def Rtg: 94.8 (130th)

Key Players to Watch

  • ND - Nate Laszewski (16.3 PPG, 8.1 RPG)
  • ND - Prentiss Hubb (14.9 PPG, 4.5 APG)
  • UNC - Armando Bacot (12.2 PPG, 8 RPG)
  • UNC - Garrison Brooks (11.2 PPG, 7.8 RPG)

Notre Dame-UNC Predictions

Nine points is a lot to cover, especially since Notre Dame typically keeps games within reach. Due to the spread being a bit high, it's recommended to live bet the second half. UNC should win the second half at home, but they may also blow a lead if playing well going into halftime.

Get a feel for the flow and live bet the second half, but we need to make a pick. Feel free to try the Irish on the road here, as UNC is on a two-game losing streak and last saw N.C. Central at home with only a six-point win. Live betting still feels like the best move, mainly because UNC should win regardless.

If Notre Dame keeps this game close, then UNC will see a much more valuable line at halftime. If UNC looks good entering half, you can live bet the second half after getting a good feel for the direction of the game. Pre-game betting should take a shot on the large spread for Notre Dame, or play the O/U odds of UNC going UNDER in seven of its last nine games.

  • Score Prediction: UNC 75 Notre Dame 71
  • Best Bets: Live Bet at Half
  • Best Bets: Notre Dame +9
  • Best Bets: UNDER

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