Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:47 AM

Missouri vs. Tennessee Predictions, Odds

  • January 23, 2021
  • By Thom Cunningham

Two ranked teams go head-to-head in the SEC as the Missouri Tigers take on the Tennessee Volunteers. Tip for this SEC showdown is set for 8:30 p.m. (ET) and will air on the SEC Network.



Missouri-Tennessee Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: Tennessee -6.5
  • Money-Line: Tennessee -320 Missouri +270
  • Total: 132.5

Odds Subject to Change

Tennessee enters this home game as a -6.5-point favorite after losing on the road to Florida. The Volunteers have covered eight of their 12 games this season, while Missouri is 7-4 on the ATS.

The point total is set at 132.5, something both schools tend to go UNDER on. Both teams have gone UNDER the point total in eight of their last 12 games, seeing a combined 8-16 O/U this season.

Betting Analysis – Missouri Tigers

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 9-2
  • ATS: 7-4
  • SU - Home: 8-1
  • SU - Away: 2-1
  • O/U: 4-8

Missouri is on a current two-game winning streak, now facing a team that beat them by 20 points on Dec. 30 last year. That game was in Missouri as well, so expect a much more determined and revenge-ridden Tiger club on Saturday night.

Missouri has four players average a double-digit point total, beginning with Xavier Pinson. Jeremiah TIlmon leads the team with eight rebounds per game, and has seen an improvement in points scored since the Tennessee game.

Missouri's biggest strength is getting to the free throw line, attempting 22.8 per game which ranks 39th nationally. They also hit 16.5 per game, which ranks 25th in the nation. The team also rebounds well on defense, so playing the glass and getting physical with Tennessee (much like Florida did with a secondary team) is a formula to pull off the road upset.

Betting Analysis – Tennessee Volunteers

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 10-2
  • ATS: 8-4
  • SU - Home: 8-1
  • SU - Away: 2-1
  • O/U: 4-8

Tennessee is going to be very dangerous in this game, looking to get back on track after an embarrassing loss to Florida. The offense for Tennessee was terrible in Gainesville, attributed to a relentless Florida Gator defense. Missouri has a good defense, so Tennessee will need to be mindful - which they should be.

The Vols have the sixth-best defense nationally with an efficiency rating of 86.1. They also allow just 58.7 points per game, which ranks fifth in the nation. Tennessee showed offensive issues however, as Jaden Springer is listed as questionable and an important part of the Vols' offense.

Victor Bailey struggled so. much against Florida that he is no longer the leading point scorer for Tennessee. After scoring just four points against Florida, and four points or fewer in two of his last three games, John Fulkerson now leads the team in points per game.

Bailey had nine points in a blowout win against Missouri earlier this season, so although his scoring isn't necessary to beat the Tigers, his overall game needs to step up. The same can be said for Santiago Vescovi, who is a bit inconsistent on the offensive end. He has scored eight points or less in three of four games, and hasn't seen more than three assists in a game since Dec. 23 against USC-Upstate.

Inside the Stats – Missouri Tigers

  • PS/G: 72.4 (184th)
  • PA/G: 66.6 (88th)
  • Off Rtg: 103.2 (152nd)
  • Def Rtg: 95.1 (97th)

Inside the Stats – Tennessee Volunteers

  • PS/G: 74.8 (116th)
  • PA/G: 58.7 (6th)
  • Off Rtg: 109.8 (58th)
  • Def Rtg: 86.1 (6th)

Key Players to Watch

  • MIZZ - Xavier Pinson (12.9 PPG)
  • MIZZ - Dru Smith (12.1 PPG)
  • TENN - John Fulkerson (12.2 PPG, 6.2 RPG)
  • TENN - Victor Bailey (11.6 PPG)

Missouri-Tennessee Predictions

The smart play here is to go UNDER the point total, despite it being somewhat low. The 4-8 O/U records are tough to shy away from, considering both schools have a top-notch defense.

Tennessee should also cover at home, the better team and playing at home after an embarrassing loss. Coach Rick Barnes should have his squad ready to go on Saturday. However, the best play is still the UNDER based on the school's combined 8-16 O/U record this season and stout defenses.

  • Score Prediction: Tennessee 69 Missouri 63
  • Best Bets: UNDER

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