Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:47 AM

Belmont vs. Austin Peay Predictions, Odds

  • January 28, 2021
  • By Thom Cunningham

The Belmont Bruins look to stretch their OVC muscles in a road game against the Austin Peay Governors. Tip for this mid-major game is set for 9 p.m. (ET) and will air on ESPNU.



Belmont-Austin Peay Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: Belmont -7
  • Money-Line: Belmont -220 Austin Peay +190
  • Total: 154.5

Odds Subject to Change

Belmont gets the nod, entering as a -7-point road favorite. Belmont has won 16 of 17 games this season, while covering the spread in 12 of its last 16 games. Austin Peay has failed to cover the spread in eight of 11 games this season.

The point total is set at 154.5, a market that can go in either direction. Belmont has gone OVER the point total in nine of 16 games this season, while Austin Peay has failed to go OVER the point total in seven of 11 games.

Betting Analysis – Belmont Bruins

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 16-1
  • ATS: 12-3-1
  • SU - Home: 8-1
  • SU - Away: 8-0
  • O/U: 9-7

The Bruins have gone nowhere, still one of the top teams in the OVC and possibly of all the mid-major schools (not including Gonzaga). The Bruins are led by two key players, both juniors. Nick Muszynski is the most well-known Bruin, Belmont's big man that leads the team in scoring.

Luke Smith is the other junior, averaging 14.8 points per game. The production doesn't stop there though, as Grayson Murphy averages about 10.2 points per game to go along with a team high 7.5 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game.

This is a dangerous team, averaging an insane amount of solid offensive stats. Belmont averages 17.6 assists per game (ranks 17th nationally), shoots a 75.9% free throw percentage (ranks 40th nationally), shoots a 61.7% two-point percentage (ranks sixth-nationally) and shoots a 50.1% field goal percentage (ranks 18th nationally).

Belmont averages 83.2 points per game which ranks 16th nationally. They also post the nation's 70th-best defensive efficiency rating at 93.8. So what's the Belmont weakness? Rebounding.

Belmont averages 34.8 total rebounds per game, which ranks 219th in the nation. A main reason for the low rebounding number is that Belmont only averages 7.9 offensive rebounds per game, which ranks 291st in the nation. A lot of that is because they make their shots, so there's no offensive rebounds to snag.

It's very difficult to find a weakness in this team. Austin Peay will have to live with Belmont's shot results and collect every single missed attempt - even if those are rare from the Bruins potent offense.

Betting Analysis – Austin Peay Governors

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 8-5
  • ATS: 3-8
  • SU - Home: 5-4
  • SU - Away: 3-1
  • O/U: 4-6-1

Austin Peay has its hands filled in this game, but it is very winnable for the Governors. They are led by one man, Terry Taylor. Anytime you have a player that averages over 20 points per game, you have a chance to win - especially at home.

Taylor also collects 10.7 rebounds per game, so it really is all on Taylor's shoulders to beat Belmont. He may very well have to score and rebound at an elite level for Austin Peay to sniff an upset here.

Reginald Gee and Jordyn Adams each average over 10 points per game, but Gee hasn't played since Jan. 9 while Adams just returned. This makes Mike Peake's performance crucial if the Governors want to win. He averages 9.3 points per game with 4.8 boards.

Austin Peay rebounds well on offense, Belmont struggles with offensive rebounds as mentioned earlier. The Governors average 13 offensive boards per game, which ranks 23rd nationally. They also make the 42nd-most two-pointers per game (21.2) and with a two-point percentage of 53.2% (which ranks 87th in the nation).

Austin Peay's recipe to success in this game is to get rebounds on both sides of the court, and attack inside. Second chance points is how Austin Peay will win this game, utilizing their offensive rebounding and high two-point percentage.

Inside the Stats – Belmont Bruins

  • PS/G: 83.2 (18th)
  • PA/G: 68.3 (127th)
  • Off Rtg: 114.3 (15th)
  • Def Rtg: 93.8 (72nd)

Inside the Stats – Austin Peay Governors

  • PS/G: 73.5 (146th)
  • PA/G: 69.7 (166th)
  • Off Rtg: 104.1 (132nd)
  • Def Rtg: 98.8 (179th)

Key Players to Watch

  • BEL - Luke Smith (14.8 PPG)
  • BEL - Nick Muszynski (15.4 PPG, 5.4 RPG)
  • PEAY - Terry Taylor (21.2 PPG, 10.8 RPG)
  • PEAY - Mike Peake (9.3 PPG, 4.8 RPG)

Belmont-Austin Peay Predictions

Belmont should win SU here, winners of eight straight on the road. The Bruins' spread is a tad concerning, until you look at the ATS for both teams. Although a bit high, play the odds here and back Belmont's 12-3-1 ATS against Austin Peay's 3-8.

The spread market is uncertain however, as there is little conviction in the -7-point spread. It seems this game, in terms of betting, will come down to one number. 80.

If Belmont can touch 80 points, then they should cover and see the point total go OVER. The last game Austin Peay allowed 80 points to was against Eastern Kentucky, the second-best team in the OVC. That game was too at home.

Between the two markets, backing the ATS records for both schools is the safer play. You can also back Belmont's 83.2 points per game average, but the point total market may come down to how many points Austin Peay can score as opposed to Belmont.

  • Score Prediction: Belmont 83 Austin Peay 75
  • Best Bets: Belmont -7
  • Best Bets: OVER

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