Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:47 AM

LSU vs. Alabama Predictions, Odds

  • February 3, 2021
  • By Thom Cunningham

The LSU Tigers head to Tuscaloosa to take on the Alabama Crimson Tide. The huge SEC game is set for 7 p.m. (ET) and will air on ESPNU.



LSU-Alabama Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: Alabama -8
  • Money-Line: Alabama -360 LSU +3000
  • Total: 160.5

Odds Subject to Change

Alabama enters this home game as an -8-point favorite, destroying LSU already this season. Alabama does well covering the spread, doing so in 11 of 17 games this season. LSU has failed to cover 10 of 16 games.

The point total is high, set at 160.5 but not surprising with the two elite offenses. LSU has gone OVER in 10 of 16 games, while Alabama is split on the O/U at 9-9.

Betting Analysis – LSU Tigers

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 11-5
  • ATS: 6-10
  • SU - Home: 9-2
  • SU - Away: 2-3
  • O/U: 10-5-1

LSU is looking for revenge, watching Alabama rain three-pointers in Baton Rouge during the first encounter. The Tigers are slipping though, losing three of their last four games which includes back-to-back losses to Alabama and Kentucky.

The Tigers offense has been part of the slump, failing to touch 80 points in four straight games despite averaging 82.9 on the season. The team is experienced, but Cameron Thomas (a freshman) averages over 20 points per game. The Tigers feature three other players who average a double-digit point total in Trendon Watford, Javonte Smart and Darius Days.

The issue for LSU, besides rim defense, is that they have essentially no depth. Outside of those four players, the next highest point total per game is freshman Mwani Wilkinson with just 4.4.

The Tigers' need depth, as the high-scoring is starting to dwindle as the season progress. Days is also out for LSU, so the Tigers are thin across the board entering Tuscaloosa on Wednesday.

Betting Analysis – Alabama Crimson Tide

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 14-4
  • ATS: 11-6-1
  • SU - Home: 10-3
  • SU - Away: 4-1
  • O/U: 9-9

Alabama has won three straight games after losing the game prior, dropping the last game to Oklahoma and now returning home. It's hard not to like Alabama here, especially if LSU is missing their top rebounder.

The Crimson Tide average 11.8 offensive boards a game (ranks 64th), 28.1 defensive rebounds a game (ranks 43rd) and 39.9 total rebounds per game (ranks 29th). Expect Alabama to clean up the glass with Days on the bench and take advantage of the rebounding game.

Herb Jones leads Alabama in rebounds per game, but the Crimson Tide have three players who average five or more rebounds a game. John Petty, who could not miss from three last time facing the Tigers, and Jordan Bruner are the other two rebounders.

With all this said, Bruner is out for Alabama, so both teams are missing top rebounders. The difference is that Days averages over 12 points a game, while Bruner averages just 7.8. Days is a much bigger blow to LSU than Bruner is to Alabama.

Alabama ranks first in the conference in three-pointers made, attempted, three-point percentage, steals per game, assists per game and rebounds per game. This is one of the more difficult offenses to contain in college basketball, although LSU can match the high-scoring despite missing its best rebounder for the game.

Inside the Stats – LSU Tigers

  • PS/G: 82.9 (15th)
  • PA/G: 74.1 (261st)
  • Off Rtg: 113.2 (23rd)
  • Def Rtg: 101.2 (227th)

Inside the Stats – Alabama Crimson Tide

  • PS/G: 79.9 (37th)
  • PA/G: 69.7 (169th)
  • Off Rtg: 106.8 (85th)
  • Def Rtg: 93.2 (47th)

Key Players to Watch

  • LSU - Cameron Thomas (22.3 PPG)
  • LSU - Trendon Watford (17.3 PPG, 7.1 RPG)
  • BAMA - Jaden Shackelford (13.6 PPG, 4.1 RPG)
  • BAMA - John Petty (13.6 PPG, 5 RPG)

LSU-Alabama Predictions

Alabama should win, but the spread is a concern considering LSU was blown out already. The offense for LSU is too good to see another game where Alabama runs away within the first five minutes. The ATS tells you to take Alabama, so if you're uneasy on taking LSU with a high spread then the point total has odds to consider.

160.5 is a bit high, and both schools have failed to see either team touch 80 points in two straight games. However, LSU and Alabama average about 80 points per game while allowing about 70 each. Despite both teams seeing low-scoring games in their last two games, expect the offense to get back into gear here and consider the 19-14-1 odds for the O/U.

  • Score Prediction: Alabama 84 LSU 77
  • Best Bets: OVER
  • Best Bets: LSU +8

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