Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:46 AM

Virginia vs. FSU Predictions, Odds, Preview

Feb. 15, 2021
David Schwab
NCAA BK Expert

The No. 9 Virginia Cavaliers head to Donald L. Tucker Center this Monday night to face the No. 17 Florida State Seminoles. Game time on ESPN is set for 7 p.m. (ET).


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Virginia-FSU Betting Odds

  • Spread: Virginia -1
  • Money-Line: TBD
  • Total: 137.5

Odds Subject to Change

Virginia gets the slight edge in Monday night’s ACC showdown as a one-point road favorite. The opening line for betting the total has been set at 137.5 points.

The Cavaliers extended their straight-up winning streak to four games with Saturday’s 12-point victory at home against North Carolina as 6 ½-point favorites. They are now 11-1 SU in ACC play while going 7-4-1 against the spread. The total has stayed UNDER in four of the last five games.

Virginia has a slight 3-2 SU edge in its last five games against Florida State with a 4-1 record ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in eight of the last 10 games between the two.

Florida State’s seven-point victory at home against Wake Forest in overtime on Saturday was its sixth SU win in the last seven games. It failed it failed to cover as 13-point favorites to slip to 5-2 ATS in this same span. The total has gone OVER or ended as a PUSH in seven of its last eight outings.

The Seminoles are 10-1 SU at home this season with a 7-4 record ATS. The total has gone OVER in four of their last five home games.

Betting Analysis – Virginia Cavaliers

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 15-3
  • ATS: 10-7-1
  • SU - Home: 10-1
  • SU - Away: 5-2
  • O/U: 9-9

Virginia has a 2.5-game lead over Florida State in the ACC standings heading into Monday night’s clash. Jay Huff was instrumental in Saturday’s win with 18 points and 12 rebounds. The senior forward is the team’s second-leading scorer with 13.4 points per game.

Forward Sam Hauser leads the Cavaliers in both points (15.1) and rebounds (7.1) this season. He added 17 points and five rebounds to Saturday’s winning cause.

Virginia is averaging 69.9 PPG and shooting 49% from the field. This includes a 39.9% shooting average from three-point range. The team is averaging 31.8 rebounds a game.

Defense has always been the Cavaliers’ strong suit. This season’s squad is holding opposing teams to 58.8 PPG.

Betting Analysis – FSU Seminoles

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 11-3
  • ATS: 8-6
  • SU - Home: 10-1
  • SU - Away: 1-2
  • O/U: 8-4-2

This is basically a must-win game for Florida State to stay in the hunt for the ACC’s regular season title. The Seminoles got a big effort from Raiquan Gray in their win on Saturday with 24 points and 12 rebounds.

The junior forward is averaging 11.1 points with a team-high 6.6 rebounds. Guard MJ Walker leads the team in scoring with 13.7 PPG and guard Scottie Barnes (10.5 points) leads the way in assists per game with 4.2.

The Seminoles are averaging 79.1 points with 37.3 rebounds a game. They are shooting 47.2% from the field and 38.7% from three-point range.

After giving up 76 points in a recent loss to Georgia Tech and 85 points against Wake Forest on Saturday, Florida State’s points-against average stands at 69.5.

Inside the Stats – Virginia Cavaliers

  • PS/G: 74.1 (124th)
  • PA/G: 70.4 (185th)
  • Off Rtg: 103.3 (154th)
  • Def Rtg: 98.3 (147th)

Inside the Stats – FSU Seminoles

  • PS/G: 79.1 (38th)
  • PA/G: 69.5 (160th)
  • Off Rtg: 111.8 (28th)
  • Def Rtg: 98.2 (138th)

Key Players to Watch

  • UVA - Sam Hauser (12.1 PPG, 7.4 RPG)
  • UVA - Jay Huff (11.1 PPG)
  • FSU - M.J. Walker (13.7 PPG)
  • FSU - Raiquan Gray (11.1 PPG, 6.6 RPG)

Virginia-FSU Predictions

The Cavaliers appear to be the class of the ACC this season and their current playing form remains strong. Yet, this could be a good opportunity to go against them Monday night on the road against one of the next-best teams in the conference.

Florida State remains a tough out on its home court to add even more betting value to this SU play on the Seminoles. Scoring will still be at a premium for the Seminoles against Virginia’s stout defense.

However, I have each team scoring enough points to take the total in this game OVER the posted betting line.

  • Score Prediction: FSU 71 Virginia 69
  • Best Bets: FSU +1
  • Best Bets: OVER


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