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College Basketball

Illinois vs. Wisconsin Predictions, Odds, Preview

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
6 minute read

Feb. 27, 2021
Thom Cunningham
NCAA BK Expert
VegasInsider.com

A huge Big Ten Conference game sees the Illinois Fighting Illini hit the road to take on the Wisconsin Badgers. Tip is set for 2 p.m. (ET) and will air on ESPN from the Kohl Center in Madison, Wisconsin.

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Illinois-Wisconsin Betting Odds

  • Spread: Wisconsin -2
  • Money-Line: TBD
  • Total: 137.5

Odds Subject to Change

Wisconsin is the slight home favorite, given a -2-point spread against the Illini. Wisconsin has failed to cover 13 of 24 games this season, while Illinois has covered the spread in 13 of its last 23 games.

The point total is set at 137.5, which could go in either direction based on both school's trends. Illinois has gone OVER the point total in 13 of 23 games, while Wisconsin has gone UNDER the point total in 13 of 24 games.


Andre Curbelo and the Illinois Fighting Illini are still competing for a potential No. 1 seed in the March Madness Tournament. (AP)

Betting Analysis – Illinois Fighting Illini

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 17-6
  • ATS: 13-9-1
  • SU - Home: 11-2
  • SU - Away: 6-4
  • O/U: 13-9-1

Illinois is fighting for a No. 1 seed in the March Madness Tournament, despite being one of three recent victims to Michigan State's current rampage tour. Ayo Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn are as good of a pair as any in the nation, while Andre Curbelo continues to progress without having to be the leader (yet).

Curbelo being able to lean on Cockburn or Dosunmu will help him grow down the line, but the current leading guard outside Dosunmu is senior Trent Frazier. These four players are a main reason as to why Illinois averages the 16th-most points per game in the nation, along with an offensive efficiency rating of 112.3 (ranks 26th).

They rank 17th in total rebounds per game (40.1) and 24th in total assists per game (16.8). Their weakness is the free throw line, only hitting 68.7% of their shots which ranks 237th in the nation. None of this matters if Dosunmu is out though, which is expected. Check on his status, as his availability might dictate the winner here.

Betting Analysis – Wisconsin Badgers

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 16-8
  • ATS: 11-12-1
  • SU - Home: 11-4
  • SU - Away: 5-4
  • O/U: 10-13-1

Wisconsin is losing momentum, fast. A team once picked among the Big Ten favorites has dwindled down due to a lack of offense. The Badgers enter this game with the 219th-most points scored per game, with pre-season Wooden Award candidate Nate Reuvers averaging just 8.7 points per game.

Wisconsin has more experience than any team in the nation, so the current losing streak shouldn't hurt the mindset of this team. Losing five of nine games won't hurt this team's confidence, but that doesn't mean the offense will start clicking suddenly. The Badgers can rely on their defense, which allows the 22nd-fewest points per game in the nation.

The issue is that their offense can't seem to surpass their defensive allowance, no matter how good of a start or finish the Badgers have. Outside of D'Mitrik Trice and Micah Potter there is too much inconsistency. In March Madness, while other teams are feeling the 'real' pressure, the Badgers inconsistent offense might not matter too much.

Experience typically translates to successful timely shots in big games. If Wisconsin's defense does their part and keeps games close (and under 70 points), the experience of Wisconsin might be enough to overcome any inconsistent scoring woes. The Badgers also shoot 75.6% from the free throw line, which ranks 41st nationally.


Inside the Stats – Illinois Fighting Illini

  • PS/G: 81.5 (16th)
  • PA/G: 69.2 (142nd)
  • Off Rtg: 112.3 (26th)
  • Def Rtg: 95.3 (75th)

Inside the Stats – Wisconsin Badgers

  • PS/G: 69.8 (219th)
  • PA/G: 62.7 (22nd)
  • Off Rtg: 105.2 (116th)
  • Def Rtg: 94.5 (55th)

Key Players to Watch

  • ILL - Ayo Dosunmu (21 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 5.3 APG)
  • ILL - Kofi Cockburn (17.7 PPG, 10 RPG)
  • WIS - D'Mitrik Trice (13.5 PPG, 4 APG)
  • WIS - Micah Potter (12.4 PPG, 6.2 RPG)

Illinois-Wisconsin Predictions

It's hard to side with Illinois, especially if Dosunmu is indeed out. If so, then side with a desperate Badgers team. Even the -2-point spread is worrisome, so consider the moneyline or live bet the Badgers for plus-value. Even the point total is sketchy without Dosunmu.

He is the main reason why Illinois averages over 80 points per game, so him being out would hinder the thought Illinois can touch 70 points. 17.5 is tricky with the status of Dosunmu being doubtful, so side with the home Badgers as Illinois is likely playing down a man - but again, the -2-point spread is tricky.

  • Score Prediction: Wisconsin 69 Illinois 68
  • Best Bets: Wisconsin SU

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