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Nevada vs. Utah State Predictions, Odds, Preview

 

Feb. 28, 2021
Thom Cunningham
NCAA BK Expert
VegasInsider.com

The Nevada Wolf Pack take on the Utah State Aggies in the second game of a two-game series. Tip for this crucial conference game is set for 7 p.m. (ET) and will air on FS1.

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Nevada-Utah State Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: Utah State -8
  • Money-Line: Utah State -360 Nevada +300
  • Total: 141.5

Odds Subject to Change

Utah State enters as an -8-point favorite, covering the spread in 12 of 20 games this season. Nevada is exceptional in covering the spread, doing so 16 times over its last 21 games.

The point total is set at 141.5, which slightly leans OVER when comparing both schools O/U this season. Utah State is split at 10-10, but Nevada has gone OVER in 11 of 21 games this season.


The Utah State Aggies find themselves in a must-win game, taking on the Nevada Wolf Pack while sitting on the March Madness bubble. (AP)

Betting Analysis – Nevada Wolf Pack

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 14-8
  • ATS: 16-5
  • SU - Home: 10-2
  • SU - Away: 4-6
  • O/U: 11-9-1

Nevada is coming off a three-point loss to Utah State, a game in which Nevada outscored Utah State by 13 points in the second half. Desmond Cambridge averages the second-most points per game on the team, and saw 23 in the first meeting.

Grant Sherfield leads the Wolf Pack in scoring, as he saw 11 points, while K.J. Hymes scored 15. Nevada typically allows 67 points per game, so expect a much more focused team in game two. Warren Washington will need a great game as well, facing the dominant Utah State big man.

Nevada's strength comes on the free throw line, hitting 15.5 per game which ranks 40th in the nation. They also convert on 75.7% of their shots from the charity stripe, which ranks 39th in the nation.

Betting Analysis – Utah State Aggies

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 15-7
  • ATS: 12-8
  • SU - Home: 8-3
  • SU - Away: 7-4
  • O/U: 10-10

Although Utah State enters with the 33rd-fewest points allowed per game nationally, that number has actually dwindled down a bit. For a defense that allows just 63.5 points per game, the Aggies have allowed 72 points or more in five of its last seven games - including three straight.

Although the defense has taken a hit, the offense has responded nicely. Neemias Queta typically carries the Aggies on offense, but both Justin Bean and Marco Anthony have crawled into double-digit territory for points per game.

Queta is the heartbeat of this team however, averaging a near double-double to go along with 1.2 steals and three blocks per game. He is the main reason Utah State ranks 25th nationally in blocks per game, along with 13th nationally in total rebounds per game.

The Aggies' strength on offense is their ability to move the ball, with four players averaging 2.6 assists or more per game. The club ranks 34th nationally in assists per game.


Inside the Stats – Nevada Wolf Pack

  • PS/G: 73 (135th)
  • PA/G: 67.5 (100th)
  • Off Rtg: 104.8 (124th)
  • Def Rtg: 96.8 (99th)

Inside the Stats – Utah State Aggies

  • PS/G: 74.7 (100th)
  • PA/G: 63.5 (33rd)
  • Off Rtg: 106.2 (95th)
  • Def Rtg: 90.2 (11th)

Key Players to Watch

  • NEV - Grant Sherfield (18.5 PPG, 6.2 APG)
  • NEV - Desmond Cambridge (15.6 PPG, 4.4 RPG)
  • UTST - Neemias Queta (14.3 PPG, 9.6 RPG)
  • UTST - Justin Bean (10.5 PPG, 7.2 RPG)

Nevada-Utah State Predictions

Utah State's defense should return, but will it come against Nevada? It might, but the Aggies have allowed too many points lately to consider the UNDER. Besides, the trends favor OVER by a game so the point total is a bit sketchy here.

Nevada is great at covering the spread this season, but Utah State playing at home makes the Wolf Pack 16-5 difficult to consider as well. There is no true lock in the upfront markets for this contest, but there is a consistent trend that held true again in the last meeting between these schools. Nevada has won the second half in nine of its last 10 games.

  • Score Prediction: Utah State 73 Nevada 68
  • Best Bets: Nevada 2H

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